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Tue Jan 15, 2013, 07:46 PM

Can someone draw me a pic of a heavily gerrymandered, deep red district?

I want to know what this looks like, socially, from the inside.

Are there NO Democrats in the neighborhood? Are there some that are deeply demoralized and dejected and have given up? Are there Democrats who are just scared of losing their jobs, or being ostracized?

Are there a lot of non-engaged citizens who "don't DO politics" ?

Is the local Chamber of Commerce the only group with money?

I need to know why these districts are seriously considered "lost causes" when Democratic policies are so much better for so many people. Could good policies get trojan-horsed into the dialogues?

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Reply Can someone draw me a pic of a heavily gerrymandered, deep red district? (Original post)
annabanana Jan 2013 OP
former9thward Jan 2013 #1
annabanana Jan 2013 #2
Buzz Clik Jan 2013 #3
annabanana Jan 2013 #4
Buzz Clik Jan 2013 #6
blue neen Jan 2013 #16
No Vested Interest Jan 2013 #13
Buzz Clik Jan 2013 #14
blue neen Jan 2013 #15
jerseyjack Jan 2013 #5
annabanana Jan 2013 #7
Redfairen Jan 2013 #8
annabanana Jan 2013 #9
former9thward Jan 2013 #10
annabanana Jan 2013 #11
davidpdx Jan 2013 #18
Lars39 Jan 2013 #12
tnlurker Jan 2013 #28
Lars39 Jan 2013 #29
tnlurker Jan 2013 #32
dsc Jan 2013 #17
bemildred Jan 2013 #19
annabanana Jan 2013 #21
dsc Jan 2013 #23
Jeff In Milwaukee Jan 2013 #20
annabanana Jan 2013 #22
blm Jan 2013 #26
Filibuster Harry Jan 2013 #24
csziggy Jan 2013 #25
Jackpine Radical Jan 2013 #27
annabanana Jan 2013 #31
Jackpine Radical Jan 2013 #33
Zoeisright Jan 2013 #30

Response to annabanana (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 07:59 PM

1. If a district is 70% registered Republican no Democrat is going to win.

They numbers are just not there. If a district is 70% registered Democratic no Republican is going to win. There are only about 80 competitive districts out of 435 and that is stretching it.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:07 PM

2. And what % is unregistered altogether?

Is anyone here FROM such a district? In such a district right now? I'm trying to imagine what it's like on a daily basis....

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:23 PM

3. here

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:31 PM

4. Pretty damn weird map for sure.

Aside from the convoluted contours, do you know what it's "like" there?

Can you tell, on the ground, when you cross and re-cross those boundaries?

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Response to annabanana (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:44 PM

6. Not quite sure what you're after, Anna, but...

being in Pa, it's northern Appalachians that run from the lower left to the upper right. The district was designed to isolate Dems and runs across valley, criss-crossing highways, etc.

Go to googlemaps.com, put it in hybrid, and search for latrobe PA. Back it out a hair, and you'll get the idea.

On edit, added this link: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Pennsylvania's_12th_congressional_district_elections,_2012

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Response to annabanana (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 12:36 AM

16. You cannot tell when you cross the boundaries.

There are townships and municipalities split in half and thirds in that district. One side of the street is Republican voters, the other side Democrats or Independents.

Trust me, the Republican party did a whole lot of homework when they gerrymandered PA last year. NOTHING was left to chance. Nothing.

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 10:55 PM

13. Unfortunately

these maps are based on the 2000 census.
New districts were drawn based on 2010 census.

Ohio CD-01 (2012) is horribly gerrymandered.

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Response to No Vested Interest (Reply #13)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 11:00 PM

14. The map at the Wikipedia link is old, but not the atlas map.

Those are up-to-date.

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #14)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 12:29 AM

15. Hi Buzz,

I think maybe this is the map of District 12 as it stands now:

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=picture+of+pennsylvania+district+12+in&hl=en&sa=X&tbo=d&biw=1472&bih=683&tbm=isch&tbnid=RP1XnxfJU39W1M:&imgrefurl=http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/Elections/2012/House/Pennsylvania/12/&docid=atUY7AQKDaB6kM&imgurl=&w=650&h=650&ei=Pzn2UPvPCqex0QG02oHQCg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=4&vpy=108&dur=1046&hovh=225&hovw=225&tx=96&ty=93&sig=102138175121666047650&page=1&tbnh=132&tbnw=132&start=0&ndsp=31&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:84

Keith Rothfus (R-Teabagger) actually moved his wife and 6 children into the district to run after it was gerrymandered by the Pennsylvania Teabagger Republicans to favor Rothfus.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:32 PM

5. Help poor Anna out.

 

Who can draw and post a drawing of a crowd with face palms?

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Response to jerseyjack (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 08:47 PM

7. Oh I got GREAT face palms...

fun to look at, but not much use.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 09:01 PM

8. Here's racial gerrymandering for you.

This is an image of Alabama's 6th congressional district which is 89% white. That finger of land which the 6th district nearly surrounds is inner city Birmingham which is 62% black and was gerrymandered into a different district a long time ago.

2012 House election results for the 6th district:
Spencer Bachus (R) - 71.4%
Penny Bailey (D) - 28.6

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Response to Redfairen (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 09:04 PM

9. An ugly piece of business to be sure.

Is the WHOLE white population of #6 republican?

Would a white Democrat be afraid to admit it?

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Response to Redfairen (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 09:54 PM

10. The 6th district is a direct result of the Voting Rights Act.

That "finger of land" which the 6th district surrounds is the 7th district which goes from Birmingham to Tuscaloosa. It also contains nine counties of Alabama's 'Black Belt'. I used to live in it. The highly irregular shape is because this is a majority-minority district, formed under provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 as amended in 1982 to include greater representation for minorities in Congress. The VRA requires majority-minority districts to be at least 65% minority. If the 6th district did not have the shape it does then whites would be put into the 7th district and it is likely minorities would not have a representative.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 09:59 PM

11. Thank you.

(I'm afraid I assumed that the district had been drawn to prevent minority representation)
I hope the SC doesn't think that this kind of protection isn't necessary anymore.

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Response to Redfairen (Reply #8)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 08:06 AM

18. That is screwed up

The section along Hwy 20 from Mountain Brook down through the bottom of Tuscaloosa County must have a really low population.

The Constitution needs to be amended to stop this shit.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Tue Jan 15, 2013, 10:38 PM

12. Michelle Blackburn's district:

http://blackburn.house.gov/district/

Got the moneyed conservatives in Brentwood (Williamson Country, 17th richest county in the USA), going to the moneyed conservatives in Germantown, with very conservative farming counties in between. Takes about 3-4 hours to get from Brentwood to Germantown, btw. Not sure why Montgomery County was thrown in.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #12)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 01:58 PM

28. It's Marsha Blackburn

As in Marsha, Marsha, Marsha.

That was the old district up until the new congress in Jan of this year. Her district basically looks the same now except it dropped the eastern parts of Shelby County (Germantown and heavy white suburbs of Memphis). East Shelby county now belongs to the 8th congressional district that had been a Democratic district for decades but went Republican in 2010. The Republican controlled state legislature moved the east Memphis suburbs to the 8th to make sure it stays Republican now.

I live in east Shelby county and my State Senators and Representative run unopposed every election because no Democrat can get more that 30% of the vote in those elections no matter how much money is spent.

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Response to tnlurker (Reply #28)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 02:05 PM

29. Argh! I know better...musta been tired.

Didn't realize that was old...still looks and is bad.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #29)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:26 PM

32. It is still bad

In the 1990's a well off Democrat spent about $600,000 of mainly his own money to win that seat when it came open (the republican in that seat was running for governor that year). He pulled in 40% of the vote. In years when a no-name Democrat runs and has very little money to spend they get about 34%.

The Tennessee Democratic party writes off that election every time as un-winnable. They never attempt to put any funds into the race no matter who is running.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 01:15 AM

17. It actually works the opposite from what you are thinking

It is the Democratic districts which are hugely Democratic while the GOP ones are more like 55/45 districts. NC was a perfect example of this. In NC we have 13 Congressional districts.

Democratic districts District 1 (majority minority) Dem incumbent 75% GOP challenger 23%. District 4 Dem incumbent 74% GOP challenger 25%. District 12 (majority minority) Dem incumbent 80% GOP challenger 20%

GOP districts District 2 GOP incumbent 56% Dem Challenger 41%, District 3 GOP incumbent 63% Dem challenger 37%, District 5 GOP incumbent 58 % Dem challenger 42%, District 6 GOP incumbent 61% Dem challenger 39%, District 8 GOP challenger 53% Dem incumbent 45%, District 9 open seat GOP 52% Dem 46%, District 10 GOP incumbent 57% Dem challenger 43%, District 11 open seat GOP 57% Dem 43%, District 13 open seat GOP 57% Dem 43%

Tie district (won by Democrat) District 7
District 50.1% to 49.9% this seat was drawn to be a GOP district (Romney won 57 to 43) but our very conservative Democratic candidate won by 654 votes out of 336,736 votes cast.

In the state as a whole, Democrats got more votes for Congress than did the GOP did but nearly lost 10 seats out of 13.

The Dem districts with the exception of district 7 are overwhelmingly Democratic (D 52, D 49, D 60)while the GOP districts range from a 6 point GOP edge to a 22 point GOP edge. So it is kind of the opposite of what your OP suggests.

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Response to dsc (Reply #17)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 08:20 AM

19. Yes, +1. nt

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Response to dsc (Reply #17)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 09:53 AM

21. This makes it seem not so hopeless..

If the GOP edges are not as "steep", then recruitment and new voters could still be a factor.

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Response to annabanana (Reply #21)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 10:56 AM

23. It is pretty bad

The GOP incumbent margins are R 15, R 26, R 16, R 22, and R 14. The non incumbent margins are R 8, R 6, R 14, and R 14. The latter group will likely increase by 3% or maybe a bit more. These aren't trivial margins. Our hope is if the districts change due to immigration from other states.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 09:13 AM

20. The point is not a "deeply red" district

The point is to have a (single) deeply blue district, corral all your Democrats into a single district, so that the surrounding districts have Republican majorities.

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Response to Jeff In Milwaukee (Reply #20)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 09:57 AM

22. So the red is actually

softer than I thought.

The fact that these boundaries are now set for the next decade, and demographics being what they are.. The whole gerrymandering thing seems like a fools errand.

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Response to annabanana (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 01:43 PM

26. No - here in NC some of the red districts are very gerrymandered.

NC Dem Party has a lawsuit going on right now because the gerrymandering is so extreme in some areas.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/redistricting/modern-gerrymanders-10-most-contorted-congressional-districts-maps-20120330

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 11:20 AM

24. I applaud all of you. You know this stuff -- an education for sure. This funky drawing up of

districts has to end.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 01:38 PM

25. Here is a place to see demographics on a district

I've linked to Florida Congressional District 6:
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Florida%27s_6th_congressional_district_elections,_2012

Compare that district to the solidly Democratic District 5 right next to it:
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Florida%27s_5th_congressional_district_elections,_2012

Here is the map of all Florida congressional districts:
http://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/SESSION/HOME/REDISTRICTING2012/PUBLICCOMMENTS/h000c9047_35x42L.pdf

If those two districts (5 & 6) were mixed up more, we'd probably get representatives that would better serve everyone. But the Florida legislature have effectively divided Republican from Democratic voters and we get more extreme representatives of each party.

(I do like Corrine Brown, but she is not who many people in that area may like.)

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 01:55 PM

27. Actually, Gerrymandering results in less deep-red districts.

What you do is try draw the lines to confine all the opponents' votes in single districts. You want their districts to be 95% solid against you, and your districts to be 55-45 (safely but not overwhelmingly weighted in your favor) so as to get the most "purhasing power" out of each vote while reducing the impact of each vote for your opponent.

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Response to Jackpine Radical (Reply #27)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:08 PM

31. Thank you Jackpine

"safely but not overwhelmingly weighted"

So demographic changes could be a big factor here...

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Response to annabanana (Reply #31)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 04:30 PM

33. That's certainly correct.

Demographic changes could easily destabilize a gerrymandered map.

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Response to annabanana (Original post)

Wed Jan 16, 2013, 03:27 PM

30. Here's Michele "batshit crazy" Bachmann's district:

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