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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:02 PM

2014 US Senate Race- including WV Open.

2013 MA US Senate Race (Markey-D vs ????R)- If the Republican is Brown-R, the race will be a Tossup, If the Republican is Baker-R or Weld-R, Lean Democratic.
2014 MA US Senate Race (Markey-D vs Generic-R) Likely Democratic.
Open or Potential Open Democratic Held Seats.
IL(Durbin-D) If Durbin runs again, he crushed the deadbeat dad. If Durbin retires, Sheila Simon-D is the standard bearer. Democratic Favored.
IA(Harkin-D) If Harkin runs again, he defeats the xenophobe. If Harkin retires, Bruce Braley-D is the standard bearer. Democratic Favored.
MI(Levin-D) If Levin runs again, he is strongly favored to win re-election, If Levin retires, Gary Peters-D is the standard bearer. Democratic Favored.
NJ(Lautenberg-D) Lautenberg-D is vulnerable in losing in the Democratic Primary to Cory Booker-D.
SD(Johnson-D) Johnson-D vs Rounds-R(Tossup), Herserth-D vs Rounds-R, Republican takeover.
WV(Open-D). Tenant-D and Goodwin-D are top tier candidates to challenge Capito-R. Republican Takeover.
Red State Democratic incumbents seeking re-election.
Pryor-AR,Landrieu-LA, Baucus-MT and Hagan-NC are favored to win due to weak GOP opposition. The only Republican that will give Begich-AK a race is Parnell.
Democratic incumbents like Udall-CO,Franken-MN,Shaheen-NH,Udall-NM,Merkley-OR,and Warner-VA are strongly favored to win.
Democratic Losses in SD(OPEN) and WV(OPEN) will be offset in
KY(McConnell-R loses to Judd-D)
MS(OPEN-Cochran-R) Jim Hood-D defeats Steve Palazzo-R.
ME(Collins-R)-loss in the Republican primary and Democrats endorsing the Independent- who is likely to caucus with the Democrats.

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Reply 2014 US Senate Race- including WV Open. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 OP
dlwickham Jan 2013 #1
Hippo_Tron Jan 2013 #4
hrmjustin Jan 2013 #2
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #3
dlwickham Jan 2013 #6
hrmjustin Jan 2013 #7
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #5

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:20 PM

1. we're so seriously fucked on the WV senate seat

if Jay had stayed in, I think that he would have won but I can't imagine any Democrat winning; Natalie Tenant, our current SOS, is too liberal for the state as a whole. She's fine at what she does but she's pro-choice, relatively pro-gay rights, and probably to the left of the state on coal. Carte Goodwin would be a pretty good choice but honestly, I don't know where he stands on most issues. He's young and good looking which goes a long way in politics. IF he can get Manchin behind him and actively campaigning for him, then he could win.

and I hate to break it to you but Ashley Judd, if she even runs, won't beat Turtleman in Kentucky

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Response to dlwickham (Reply #1)

Sun Jan 13, 2013, 12:59 PM

4. WV is a prime opportunity for the Republicans to blow it in the primary

There's already speculation that they will nominate someone like Todd Akin over Capito.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:45 PM

2. It may get to a point that if the DSCC feels we can't win in WV they will just pull out and put

money on other seats.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 12, 2013, 07:14 AM

3. The Tossup Democratic held US Senate Races up for grabs in 2014 besides WV are

SD(Johnson-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Democratic. (Herseth Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Republican.
MI(OPEN-D) Seat will be competitive if Republicans nominate Candice Miller-R but Gary Peters or Gretchen Whitmer-D ends up winning.
IA(OPEN-D) Seat will be competitive if Republicans nominate Tom Latham-R- but Bruce Braley or Tom Vilsack-D will end up winning.
AK(Begich-D vs Parnell-R) Tossup/Democratic.
Competitive Republican seats are GA(if Chambliss-R loses in the primary and Marshall-D runs.)
KY(McConnell-R)-Democrats will be better of nominating Allison Lundergan Grimes-D.
ME(only if Collins-R loses in the primary.)
MS(only if Cochran-R retires and Hood-D runs.)

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #2)

Sun Jan 13, 2013, 05:17 PM

6. it depends on who gets the nomination

IF a conservative "friend of coal" gets the nomination, I can see Manchin actually campaigning for him/her

if not, Manchin and the Democratic hierarchy here will sit this one out like they've done for campaigns in Capito's district and in the first district this year

how can Manchin campaign against candidates who are bought and paid for by the same people who have bought and paid for him

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Response to dlwickham (Reply #6)

Sun Jan 13, 2013, 07:36 PM

7. I think you are correct in this.

WV is always going to want coal people until the country doesn't use it anymore.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Jan 13, 2013, 01:59 PM

5. 2014 is going to be a draw.

Neither party makes any gains or losses.
Highly Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats.
WV(OPEN-D) Capito-R vs Generic DEM(Tenant-D) Lean Republican, Raese-R vs Tenant-D, Lean Democratic.- We need to keep an eye on whether the Teabaggers defeat Capito-R in the primary.
SD(Johnson-D) Johnson-D vs Rounds-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic. If Johnson-D retires, Herseth Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R, Tossup/Lean Republican. -2D
AK(Begich-D vs Parnell-R) Tossup, Begich-D defeats Treadwell-R and/or Miller-R.
AR(Pryor-D vs Darr-R) Lean/Likely Democratic.
LA(Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R) Lean/Likely Democratic
NC(Hagan-D vs Crazy GOP US House Member-R)Lean/Likely Democratic.
MT(Baucus-D vs Generic R) Lean/Likely Democratic.
CO(Udall-D vs Norton-R) Likely Democratic.
IA(Braley-D vs Latham-R) Lean Democratic (Braley-D vs King-R) Likely Democratic.
MI(Peters-D vs Generic-R) Lean Democratic.
MN(Franken-D vs Crazy GOP US House Member-R) Likely Democratic.
MA-2013 Special and 2014 Regular (Markey-D)
NJ(Booker-D)

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