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Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:01 AM

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WVA) to Retire

This could be a big opening for the GOP given how far to the right WVA has evolved in the last 20 years. My guess is that whoever seeks the Democratic nomination will have to campaign much like Manchin:

The 113th Congress will be Jay Rockefeller's last:

Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller will not run for reelection in 2014, passing up a bid for a sixth term and putting in play a Senate seat in deep red West Virginia.
In an interview with POLITICO, Rockefeller the chairman of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee and one of the most senior Senate Democrats said he had been wrestling with the question of whether to run again since October but had not made up his mind to retire until very recently.

Including special elections, 34 Senate seats will be up in 2014, 21 of them currently held by Democrats. permalink
www.dailykos.com

8 replies, 1134 views

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Reply Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WVA) to Retire (Original post)
WI_DEM Jan 2013 OP
TwilightGardener Jan 2013 #1
graham4anything Jan 2013 #2
wisteria Jan 2013 #3
ellisonz Jan 2013 #4
sofa king Jan 2013 #5
NPolitics1979 Jan 2013 #6
budkin Jan 2013 #7
TroyD Jan 2013 #8

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:05 AM

1. That's bad news. I don't think it will go to a Dem. Manchin sounds like a

Ben Nelson-style Democrat as it is.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 11:07 AM

2. Makes John Kerry's leaving before his term up, that much more precarious

 

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 02:20 PM

3. He will be around until 2014.

Senator Kerry would of had to run again in 2014 if he did not decide to accept the SOS post. And, it might of been possible Kerry would have retired too.

Frankly, I don't get you, other than to think you were an ardent Susan Rice supporters and have some sour grapes to unload in Kerry's direction.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 02:34 PM

4. Crap.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 03:05 PM

5. I'm not worried about it.

This past election was weighted even more heavily in the GOP's favor, 23 to 10. The Democratic Party picked up two seats anyway, if one includes the two independents who now caucus with us.

We currently enjoy a ten-seat advantage in the Senate, 55-45, and we have the best chance in decades to capture a supermajority in 2014. If we hold or pick up all Senate elections outside of the old Confederacy, we get it.

What has already happened is this: two of the three Senate Classes are now controlled nearly 2 to 1 by Democrats. Since 2006, Republicans simply have been unable to carry statewide elections in the way they once did, as the GOP devolves ever further into sectionalism and extremism, exactly as their spiritual forebears did (as Democrats) prior to the Civil War.

By 2016, even the Republican gerrymandering in the House will begin sagging, as their own policies kill their constituents, push them into poverty, and cancel their votes by forcing them into urban areas where they have a chance of survival.

In that year, I suspect, Republicans will find themselves defending half of the Senate seats they have left in Congress, including virtually all of the Ohio River states that broke for President Obama this past election, and they are going to lose many of them.

The particular question of West Virginia is certainly a touchy one and until WV's crushing poverty, infrastructural collapse, and environmental destruction is addressed, ignorance--and the GOP--will hold sway. But the replacement of Jay with a Republican will have little functional influence on the Senate as a whole--and that's probably as much as I should say about that.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 05:40 PM

6. 2014 WV US Senate Race.

Capito-R vs Tenant-D(WV Secretary of State)
Capito-R vs Rahall-D
Republicans win WV by a high single digit margin.
Besides WV(OPEN), the other Democratic held US Senate seat is likely to go Republican is SD(assuming Johnson-D retires).

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 06:35 PM

7. There goes that seat

Red as can be.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2013, 07:00 PM

8. Unfortunately this is not a surprise

Rockefeller has been trailing Capito for months in the polls and has taken a lot of heat over the coal issue and it's been suspected for quite some time that he would not run again.

While one should always remain hopeful that another Democrat can step into his shoes, we may already be down one Senate seat in 2014.

This is why I think Barack Obama & John Kerry are taking a big risk by Kerry vacating the MA Senate seat and giving Scott Brown another opening. Every Senate seat matters, and the Kerry appointment for Secretary of State could come back to haunt us.

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