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Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:21 PM

Supreme Court during Obama's 2nd term

What's the estimate on how many justice openings will occur during Obamas 2nd term? Looking at their ages:

Chief Justice John Glover Roberts, Jr. is 57 (DOB: 27 January, 1955).
Justice Antonin Gregory Scalia is 76 (DOB: 11 March, 1936).
Justice Anthony McLeod Kennedy is 76 (DOB: 23 July, 1936).
Justice Clarence Thomas is 64 (DOB: 23 June, 1948).
Justice Ruth Joan Bader Ginsburg is 79 (DOB: 15 March, 1933).
Justice Stephen Gerald Breyer is 74 (DOB: 14 August 1938).
Justice Samuel Anthony Alito, Jr. is 62 (DOB: 1 April, 1950).
Justice Sonia Sotomayor is 58 (DOB: 25 June, 1954).
Justice Elena Kagan is 52 (DOB: 28 April, 1960).

1. I would think that Ginsburg may retire close to the mid-point of the 2nd Obama term. What a fighter she is, as she has survived pancreatic cancer and still fights on for the left.

2. Could we possibly get lucky and have Scalia and/or Kennedy retire?

3. Sotomayor, Kagan, Alito, Thomas and Roberts are not going anywhere, barring major illness or death.

4. Breyer is a wild-card

I'm just hoping that Obama gets to name at least two more justices in the next four years.

16 replies, 1812 views

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:24 PM

1. without filibuster reform, who he nominates is probably irrelevant nt

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:26 PM

2. I think we may get very lucky and Scalia will retire along with Kennedy

 

I think that is why the big rush to decide this term so many major big issues.

I think Scalia sees the writing on Hillary winning in 2016 and Dem Presidents for 16 years, 12 more.

I think Ginsburg, going for the record, will retire in the 3rd yr. of this term

I expect the court to be 7 to 2 or 8 to 1 by the first part of Hillary's term in 2016.

And I expect to see Barack Obama named to the US Supreme Court in 2016

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:35 PM

3. Whatcha' somin' there graham?

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 12:55 PM

4. None of the right-wingers will retire

except for health reasons.

So basically, the question is an actuarial one. What are the chances that one of these will die (listed in decreasing order of evilness)?

Scalia
Thomas
Alito

Roberts
Kennedy

Actuarially, my guess is that there is better than a 50/50 chance all of them would live another 4 years. Are there any actuaries out there who could put some real numbers to this?

The Court is a funny thing. Kind of an organism. Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are highly partisan ideologues. Kennedy and Roberts are a little more thoughtful. If one of those three ideologues leaves the court, we could see a real change in the dynamics of the SCOTUS.

I will be happy to send a truckload of cigars to those three if it might help nature move things along.

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:01 PM

5. I think all the Conservative justices will wait until the next election

They probably will retire after Obama leaves office.

That may be why the next election will potentially more important than the last one.

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Response to sellitman (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:30 PM

8. If their health allows

I don't see any of them leaving for any other reason (death or terminal illness). But at that age (and at any age for that matter) things are often out of our hands. Lots of people die in their 60s. Some live to their 90s.

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:42 PM

11. Thomas will be OK

 

He gets lots of deep, restful sleep every day the SCOTUS is in session.

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Response to bongbong (Reply #11)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 05:52 PM

15. At that rate he will be on the court another 30 years.


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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:14 PM

6. Uncle Clarence will be taken by cardiomyopathy.

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Response to Loudly (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:31 PM

9. I'm not a doctor, but I think that requires the patient to have a heart.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:16 PM

7. I think Ginsberg is the only one likely to retire

Her health has been questionable for some time.

None of the felonious five will retire. They're going to wait for the next election and hope for a GOP victory so a GOP President can appoint someone just as bad as them to replace them.

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Response to dballance (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 01:32 PM

10. If I were placing bets, that would be my bet.

And that sucks. If we don't win the next election, this court could be stacked right for another generation.

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Response to dballance (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 04:49 PM

13. But that would OK. Imo we shouldn't downplay the importance of

securing an already liberal seat with a young justice who will be around for many years.

Of course it would be great to replace Scalia or Thomas but securing the existing seats for a generation is also important.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 04:19 PM

12. my bet is ginsburg retiring and health problems for thomas. Just a gut feeling.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 05:15 PM

14. Can justices be impeached?

I would impeach clarence thomas, dereliction of duty - hasn't remarked on a case in the supreme court for what now, 5 years? (he does read decisions on occasion, but asks no questions of litigants or or attorneys). Uh, clarence, a robot could do what you do.

My new years prediction: Clarence & his white bimbo wife will get sick of each other & get divorced, anita hill will lhfao.

Sotomayor, Kagan, Alito, Thomas and Roberts are not going anywhere, barring major illness or death.

.. or divorce/personal reasons, or impeachment, or inferiority complex (think clarence the mule here). Odd, clarence has the latter, whlle antonin scalia has a superiority complex.

Ginsburg & Breyer will almost certainly retire during obama's final term, would be counterproductive for them stay on, & risky as needs no explanation. Next year 2013 for both, ruth first, separated by prudence & new appointment.

Kennedy could, just could, retire, since he's technically a moderate (cough cough) centrist (puke, vomit, knew I couldn't write it without getting sick).
Scalia will stay on his throne as long as a democrat is president, & humpty dumpty already has a cracked shell. Obesity could possibly cause him to unwillingly have a great fall, but his swelled head & cracked shell are still suffering in misery from roberts tyrannical betrayal of all that is right & holy in republican rightwing strategy.
If it weren't for roberts, scalia would've had a trifecta - bushgore2000, subverting the 2ndAmendment, & Obamacare! 230 years ago roberts betrayal would've led to another alex hamilton vs aaron burr.

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Response to Mojo2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 27, 2012, 05:53 PM

16. Ginsburg will retire ... so will Kennedy and maybe Breyer...

If we can get Kennedy to retire, it'd be huge.

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