2013 MA US Senate Election Special Election.

[NPolitics1979]

The Democratic candidates for the 2013 Special Election are US Reps Markey,Capuano, and Lynch, State Senator Downing, and US Attorney Ortiz.
The Frontrunners for the Democratic Nomination are Markey-D due to over 37 year Congressional Experience and 3M COH. and Ortiz-D- Female,Hispanic,a federal prosecutor.
Either of these Democratic candidates will be in a Tossup Race in the General Election against Brown-R. The biggest question is which Democratic candidate has a momentum of defeating Brown in November 2014-assuming Brown-R is the incumbent.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. We won't be "Coakley'd" again -

you count on that..............

[Wounded Bear]

2. I still find it amazing....

that Brown has any shot at all. I mean, damn, it's Massachusetts, for crying out loud.

[NPolitics1979]

3. Would Brown be able to win re-election in 2012 had Coakley been his Democratic challenger or

Warren ran a mediocre campaign.
Brown-R benefited from a low turnout off year Special Election in 2010 when the Tea Party wave was reaching its peak.
Since Brown-R became US Senate-He was rubber stamping the Grover Norquist Agenda which is highly unpopular in MA. Warren did an excellent job exposing Scott Brown.
Warren-D also benefitted from the Obama coattails.
Whoever is the Democratic Nominee in the 2013 Special Election needs to remind MA voters that Brown's future voting record will be the same as his previous voting record.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Despite Mass being the bluest state in the country

Brown only lost by 7 points to Warren, while Romney lost Mass by 23 points. So, a lot of people voted Obama and then Brown.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. And if the Democratic Party is either too weak or too cowardly to follow through, then we deserve

to lose that seat.

I like Ed Markey, but can he win? MA is not as liberal as it wants was. And Markey is old school. Brown could convince people that he's "new meat" and Markey is "too liberal".

I really want Markey to win, but I need to know how popular and well known he is statewide. I know that he's been nothing short of patriot for his district.

[Cha]

37. Yeah Elizabeth had Excellent

ground game. She wasn't as well known as Brown and Brown tried immedidately to paint her as a somebody trying to cash in on affirmative action when all he did was expose his asshole self as a racist.

And, she freaking cleaned his clock in the Debates.. her supporters love her and they'll do it again for whomever wins the MA Dem primary.

Yes, they do.. "Whoever is the Democratic Nominee in the 2013 Special Election needs to remind MA voters that Brown's future voting record will be the same as his previous voting record."

[NPolitics1979]

38. Brown is the MA version of George Allen.

Allen became US Senator by defeating the uncharismatc and lackluster incumbent Chuck Robb by a narrow margin. Six years later Allen narrowly loses re-election to a first time candidate Jim Webb due to his smug and arrogant behavior. When making a comeback last year, Allen loses to Tim Kaine by a high single digit margin.

[Cha]

39. Yeah, Scott Brown has nothing to be proud of in

his campaign against Elizabeth Warren and everything to be ashamed of.

Too good how george allen lost his second senate race in a row!

[NPolitics1979]

40. Brown-R is more likely to skip the 2013 Special and run for Governor in 2014.

The 2013 Special Electon against Markey-D is a Tossup. If Brown-R loses in the special election, his political career ends. If he wins, he will have to face another tough re-election campaign in 2014, he will face a top tier Democratic challenger ie Deval Patrick, Carmen Ortiz, Ben Downing,etc, The DSCC,DNC,etc will do everything to make sure Brown-R leaves the US Senate for good.
If Brown-R skips the Senate race and runs for Governor in 2014, he wins the Republican nomination and defeats likely Democratic nominee Coakley-D by a high single digit margin.
Brown-R wins re-election in 2018, he prepares for a Presidential run in 2020 if a Democrat is in the White House or 2024 if a Republican is in the White House.

[Cha]

41. Hope Massachusetts doesn't let him in the Gov

Chair! Or anywhere in politics. Kochs will give him a job.

[NPolitics1979]

43. Lets just hope Coakley learns her lesson.

[WI_DEM]

14. Why do people keep saying 'it's MA' MA has elected many republicans

over the years.

[TwilightGardener]

17. Hell, they brought us the beloved Mittens Romney. They love

Republicans more than they think.

[graywarrior]

4. Forget Brown

[DFW]

5. "assuming Brown-R is the incumbent. "

Let's do the homework this time, and not LET Brown be the incumbent!

This is a job for DFA!

[karynnj]

6. No one running will be the incumbent - whoever Patrick picks will be.

I don't see him picking Brown. I think the op meant R nominee.

[NPolitics1979]

7. In 2014 -Brown could be the incumbent if MA Democrats repeat the same mistake in 2013 .

as they did in 2010 special but it is unlikely to happen. The likely Democratic nominees in the special (Markey-D or Capuano-D) are going to run a much stronger general election campaign in the special election against Brown-R than Coakley-D did in 2010.
Nov 2014- Brown-R gets voted out of office. Like Nov 2012- Brown-R would be the only GOP incumbent up for re-election that loses.
The highly vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Seats in 2014 are
SD(Johnson-D vs Rounds-R),WV(Rockefeller-D vs Capito-R),AK(Begich-D vs Treadwell-R), Democrats are also vulnerable in AR,LA,and NC but the Democratic incumbents could hang onto those seats.
The highly vulnerable Republican held seats are ME-if Collins retires or loses in the primary.
The biggest upset would be KY- Judd defeating McConnell.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. Thanks so much for this. I'm actually scared for 2014. Democrats have got to stop infighting,

unite, and work for 2014, because I can assure all of us that the Republicans NEVER stop campaigning. It's what they do best.

[frazzled]

8. Depending on when Kerry resigns his seat, special election will be only 5 months later

That means as early as this May or June. The primary will be only 6 weeks before that. This was the problem in 2010: the six weeks between the already sudden primary and the election. Coakley could have corrected her Christmastime flubs and recuperated much better if there had been longer time. She actually was (and remains) a popular figure in Massachusetts. She was not a particularly good campaigner.

If Kerry is nominated and confirmed soon into this next term, and the Democrats fight a fierce primary battle against each other just 3 1/2 months later, six weeks doesn't give much time to organize a strong campaign for the eventual winner of that primary.

Brown, on the other hand, is sitting on a $400K campaign chest and an already formed statewide campaign organization. This won't be quite the breeze people are imagining for the Democrats.

[NPolitics1979]

9. As a MA Resident, the Senate vacancy process needs to be like it is WY and HI.

The Governor has to make an interim replacement based on a list of 3 candidates that are from the same party as the former incumbent. The candidate that gets appointed faces re-election during the next US Senate Election cycle. (WY-2008 is a better scenario).

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

21. Well, you can thank the Democrats in the legislature in 2004 for that

They tried playing predictive politics and it backfired.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

27. However, Kerry has reportedly left his campaign apparatus in MA. That may help.

And, assuming that Markey is the nominee, I'm assuming that he already has an organization in place.

[frazzled]

28. Markey doesn't have a statewide organization

or presence, probably. His organization is in his district, which is quite reliably liberal.

Markey was my Congressman for 5 years, till we moved in 2004. I like Ed Markey very much. But whether he is as liked in Worcester or New Bedford or even Braintree ... that's another question. I hope so.

[NPolitics1979]

10. Could Congressman Elect Joe Kennedy be the Democratic candidate in the special election or

Does he need to wait for another 12 years when either Warren or Markey or Warren or Capuano to retire.
Ted Kennedy and John Kerry both has a total of 75 years service in the US Senate.
Warren,Markey,or Capuano are each likely to 2 or 3 terms in US Senate. Joe Kennedy, assuming he wins the Democratic nomination in the Special Election and defeats Brown-R in the General, is able serve at least 3 to 4 decades in the US Senate.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

22. Would that be fair to the people who just elected him their Congressman?

Really, I think if you run for an office, you owe it to at least serve a term.

[karynnj]

30. Senators Kennedy and Kerry were far younger than Warren, Capuano and Markey

It s very unlikely that the next Democratic opening will be as long as it was from 1984 to 2010.

[NewJeffCT]

12. When Kerry ran for president in 2004

Mass politicians changed the state law from gubanatorial appointment to special election in order to prevent Romney (governor of Mass at the time) from appointing a replacement for Kerry. They had such an overwhelming majority in the legislature that they passed the law right over Romney's veto.

Why can't Mass politicians just change the lost back to gubantorial appointment?

[Cha]

19. Good question and one I hope is answered by..

YES WE CAN!

[WI_DEM]

13. I believe if Brown runs he would be the front runner to win

sorry to say that but he has a strong positive rating in the state as well as a considerable war chest and organization ready to go. I wish that Obama would not keep picking people from the Senate to serve in his administration.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

15. At the risk of redundancy ...

I have said this in other posts but feel compelled to repeat:
Scott Brown was the creation of an awful, awful, AWFUL campaign run by Martha Coakley. As bad a year as 2010 was for Democrats, Coakley acted as if she were Teddy Kennedy reincarnated and could proceed as such.
Brown won 47 percent of the vote this year against Elizabeth Warren. In the last poll I saw, he stood at 47 percent. His approval rating was 10 points higher; what that says to me is that people think he is a swell guy, but ...
The Democratic Party in Massachusetts has been spotty in gubernatorial elections. It has lost one US Senate election since 1976 - the special election to Scott Brown.
This one will not be held in the dead of winter, will not be held at the start of an awful Democratic year, and will not be run against a breathtakingly bad candidate.

[WI_DEM]

16. I hope you are right.

[Cha]

20. Imv, this can't be said too many times.. nm

Maybe it's a good thing as in a good lesson to have elected mittLies for one term in order to now what NOT to do Again. Same with Scott Brown.. who, yeah, will be getting out there with every LIE in his Slimey Playbook.

Will Bloomberg endorse him again?

"BLOOMBERG BACKS SCOTT BROWN, THE NRA'S CANIDATE AGAINST ELIZABETH WARREN"

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/07/6292816/bloomberg-backs-scott-brown-nras-candidate-against-elizabeth-warren

[NewJeffCT]

23. In a state that Obama won by 23 points

Brown only lost to dream candidate Elizabeth Warren by 7 points. Without Obama on the ticket, it will likely mean even fewer votes for the Democratic nominee.

And, if Ed Markey is the candidate, he has been in Congress since 1976 and has never had a competitive race in that entire time. Half the time, Republicans have not even bothered to run a candidate, and when they have run a candidate, they've never gotten more than 36% of the vote. Huge difference when running for statewide office.

[NPolitics1979]

24. Brown-R is more popular than a generic Republican candidate but he is no

Bill Weld. Brown-R is expected to recieve at least 45 percent of the popular vote in the Presidential Election cycle or 47 percent in the Off Year/Midterm Election Cycle.
The Democratic nominees Markey,Warren,and Coakley are generic Democratic nominees.
The biggest question for Markey is can he run a strong GOTV grassroots campaign in the Special Election against Brown, How is his debate performance,

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

29. Special election = ground game

This was Coakley's greatest oversight. She didn't bother with one.
Markey has not had to bother with one over the last 40 years, but he is not an idiot. He knows how the Commonwealth works, he knows why Coakley got smoked. He knows what Brownie is all about, he knows how Brownie can be beaten, and that is by getting Democrats to the polls.
Independents are the least likely people to vote in a special election, and independents are Brownie's base. Get Democrats to the polls and they are more than neutralized.
It will come down to the Democrat running a well funded campaign focusing on GOTV. I doubt the President or the DNC will allow this to simply unfold without heavy involvement.
Markey, or whoever, may only get 52 or 53 percent if they run a strong, smart campaign, but that is more than enough.

[NPolitics1979]

18. Markey-D has announced he is planning to run for the US Senate in the 2013 Special Election.

Are his fellow US House Members Capuano and/or Lynch going to run in the special election or will they endorse Markey in the primary.

[NPolitics1979]

31. Markey is recieving and endorsement from Kerry, Vicky Kennedy and the DSCC for the Special Election.

The current and former MA US House Members (Frank,Neal,Olver,Meehan,McGovern,Tierney,Delahunt,Capuano,Lynch,Tsongas,Keating,and Kennedy both Sr and Jr will also endorse Markey-D in the special election.
In a general election matchup between Brown-R, the special election race is a Tossup.
If the Republican candidate is Baker-R, Markey-D wins by a high single digit margin.
Markey-D is the 9th senior member of the US House and the current US Senators who have been in Congress before Markey-D are
Leahy(D-VT)
Baucus(D-MT)-US House 1975
Cochran(R-MT)-US House 1973
Grassley(R-IA)-US House 1975
Harkin(D-IA)-US House 1975

[NPolitics1979]

32. Markey-D has waited for 30 years to become US Senator.

1984- when Tsongas-D announced his retirement-Markey-D deferred to Kerry-D and 5th CD US Rep Jim Shannon-D. Kerry-D wins the November General Election.
2004/2005- Had Kerry-D won the popular vote in OH, he would have been elected POTUS, Markey-D and Meehan-D would have been the front runners in the 2005 Special Election.
2009/2010- Special Election to replace Kennedy-Markey-D deferred to Coakley-D and Capuano-D. Coakley-D won the primary but lost to Brown-R in the general.
2012-challenging Brown-R. Establishment and grassroots were coalescing behind Outsider Liz Warren.

[NPolitics1979]

33. Markey-D vs Brown-R race will be like the Cardin-D vs Steele-R race.

The Democratic Nominees were longtime members of the US Congress and the Republican nominees were rising star statewide elected officials who only won statewide office due to the weaknesses of their Democratic opponent. (Coakley and Townsend) .
Cardin-D defeated Steele-R by a wider than expected margin.

[NPolitics1979]

34. Warren-D and Markey-D

Nine months from now MA- assuming Markey-D survives a tough general election campaign against The Pretty Pickup Truck Driver and his Koch $@cker friends, MA will have the two greatest US Senators.
Warren-D will be the US Senator that will be frequently attending the Sunday Talkshows and Markey-D will be the US Senator that will be lobbying pork money for MA.

[NPolitics1979]

35. Markey did try to run for the US Senate in 1984 but withdrew before the campaign started.

Had Markey-D ran for the US Senate in 1984,won the Democratic nomination and the November General Election, he would be the 8th Senior Member of the US Senate right after Harkin-IA. The Democratic establishment was behind Kerry-D and then 5th CD US Rep Jim Shannon.
Markey-D decided not to run in the 2010 Special Election because he would have lost in the primary to Coakley or Capuano-this was before MA voters found out what type of campaigners Coakley and Capuano were.
Markey-D decided not to challenge Brown-R in 2012 Brown-R was considered popular before Warren-D decided to challenge Brown-R and defeat Brown-R.
2014- Ed Markey-D is the Frontrunner for the Democratic nomination by default.
The Kennedy family(Vicky,Ted Jr,and Joe Jr are not running-endorsing Markey-D)
Deval Patrick is not running.
US House Members ie Tsongas,Capuano,and Lynch lack the stature Markey-D has.
In the general election-Brown-R is less popular than he was during the 2012 campaign.

[NPolitics1979]

36. 2010 MA US Senate Special Election had more to do with Coakley's overconfidence and arrogance

than Brown's strength. Coakley lost the race more than Brown won the race.

[ZRT2209]

42. When is the D v. R election?