Primary Turnout Could Signal Trouble for G.O.P.

[babylonsister]

Primary Turnout Could Signal Trouble for G.O.P.
By TRIP GABRIEL
Published: March 30, 2012


After presidential primaries or caucuses in 28 states, voters are sending a potentially troubling message to the Republican Party: We aren’t necessarily as excited about the campaign as you think.

By some important measures, voting analysts say, turnout is down in the Republican nominating contests compared with 2008, defying the widespread assumption that Republicans would line up in huge numbers for a chance to evict President Obama from the White House.

There is some encouraging news for Republicans. Some gauges of voter intensity continue to show Republicans far more enthusiastic about this election than are Democrats; a New York Times/CBS News poll this month found that 40 percent of Republican primary voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the presidential election this year, compared with 29 percent of Democrats. And the overall number of people voting in the Republican primaries is up slightly compared with four years ago.

But despite the spirited battle between Mitt Romney and a succession of challengers, turnout as a percentage of the eligible voting population is down, and the states where turnout is up are often those that allow Democrats and independents to vote in Republican contests.

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Republican turnout this year has had as many ups and downs as a Tilt-a-Whirl. After an initial period of excitement that produced higher turnouts in the first three states — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — enthusiasm appeared to wane even as the race stayed competitive.

A study by the Bipartisan Policy Center of the 13 states with primaries through Super Tuesday, March 6, found that turnout was down in eight states. In the five states with increased turnout, all allowed Democrats or independents to vote in the Republican contests — a factor that would have been less in play four years ago when there was a contested Democratic race. (The study did not include caucuses, which are harder to compare.)

“I think it reflects the enthusiasm level within the Republican Party is low,” said Curtis Gans, a political scientist at American University, who conducted the study. “Even a close race has not drawn rank-and-file Republicans at the same levels in some cases compared to 2008.”

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/31/us/politics/primary-turnout-could-signal-trouble-for-gop.html?_r=1

[AlinPA]

1. They will push God, Gays (anti) and Guns and turnout will not be a problem.

[HopeHoops]

2. I changed my registration so I could write in Obama for the presidential ticket.

Well, that and a wonderful state rep is under attack in the primaries and I don't trust her challenger.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. You can buy ads and blanket airwaves

but they can't make flesh-and-blood people to vote Republican----yet, anyway.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

4. Turn out is going to be based more on down-ticket races/issues than the presidential election.

The Republican voters just aren't energized to vote for either Romney or Santorum. If nothing major happens, that's not likely to change.

In an attempt to stop the hemorrhaging at the presidential level there will be some down-ticket incentives to try and garner a decent turnout in some of their threatened seats. We'll see how that works out for them after the fact I suppose.

[jenmito]

5. That's why so many voter suppression laws were signed by Repub. governors. n/t

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

6. God I hope so