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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 02:44 PM

Nate Silver: For Scott Brown, a Third Round in the Battle Against Partisan Gravity

New York Times:

In 2010, Scott Brown became the first Republican elected to represent Massachusetts in the United States Senate since Edward Brooke in 1972. Mr. Brown’s victory, in a special election for the seat formerly held by Edward M. Kennedy, was full of substantive and symbolic significance, costing Democrats their 60-seat Senate majority and threatening the passage of the national health care bill that Mr. Kennedy had once championed.

But this November, Mr. Brown was the only incumbent senator to lose his general election bid, falling to Elizabeth Warren by seven percentage points. (Another incumbent, Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, lost in the Republican primary.) Mr. Brown may soon get a third opportunity to overcome the odds that any Republican faces when running for federal office in Massachusetts.

...snip...

The overall political environment is not likely to be as favorable for Democrats in the special elections as it was this November (although it will probably also not be so unfavorable to them as in 2010). And there could be an element of sympathy for Mr. Brown among some swing voters: this is a man they like reasonably well. Are they willing to reject him twice in the span of less than a year?

Despite all that, it is difficult to view Mr. Brown as much better than even money: he is a Republican in Massachusetts who lost an election by a reasonably clear margin just last month. And if Mr. Brown wins, he could well face another competitive election in November 2014, when Democrats will have more chance to gear up from the race – and when Mr. Patrick will have finished his second term as governor and might be more likely to run for the Senate.


Okay, I'll admit Nate makes me feel better...

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Reply Nate Silver: For Scott Brown, a Third Round in the Battle Against Partisan Gravity (Original post)
brooklynite Dec 2012 OP
Proud Liberal Dem Dec 2012 #1
Piazza Riforma Dec 2012 #2
blm Dec 2012 #3
NewJeffCT Dec 2012 #4
yortsed snacilbuper Dec 2012 #5

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 02:48 PM

1. We'll need to work hard to safeguard his seat

but I don't think that Brown is necessarily a shoo-in either

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 03:04 PM

2. Couple of friends up in MA that are registered Dems voted for and would likely

 

vote again for Brown. The fact that Brown has name recognition and has quite successfully cast himself as a moderate is why I think he'll win or at a minimum come very close.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 03:08 PM

3. The Dem candidate will end up with Kerry's political team and Obama's GOTV team in Mass.

And people need to give Mass Dems some credit - they are NOT going to take a senate seat for granted again any time soon.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 03:10 PM

4. When Romney was governor, Mass Dems changed the law

so he would not be allowed to appoint John Kerry's replacement if Kerry won the election in 2004 - their majorities were big enough that they could override his veto.

Why can't they do that again, to allow Deval Patrick to appoint Kerry's replacement?

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 03:14 PM

5. scott brown begs david cock for money!

&feature=player_embedded

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