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Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:51 AM

Poll: Brown would be heavy favorite in special election for MA Senate

A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds defeated Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) is in a strong position should there be a special election to fill Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) seat next year with a favorability rate of 58% to 28%.

Said pollster Steve Koczela: "We matched him up theoretically against (U.S. Reps.) Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch and (former U.S. Rep.) Marty Meehan, and in each one of those cases, he led by between 17 and 19 points."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/12/20/brown_would_be_heavy_favorite_in_special_election.html

If Obama wants to potentially lose a critical senate seat he will nominate John Kerry for SOS. Come on, there must be other outstanding individuals who can serve as SOS than just John Kerry?

31 replies, 2442 views

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Reply Poll: Brown would be heavy favorite in special election for MA Senate (Original post)
WI_DEM Dec 2012 OP
MannyGoldstein Dec 2012 #1
Mass Dec 2012 #2
WI_DEM Dec 2012 #5
LiberalFighter Dec 2012 #20
vi5 Dec 2012 #3
pscot Dec 2012 #14
MotherPetrie Dec 2012 #4
midnight Dec 2012 #7
MotherPetrie Dec 2012 #17
phleshdef Dec 2012 #25
Drunken Irishman Dec 2012 #26
Liberal_Stalwart71 Dec 2012 #6
Mass Dec 2012 #8
John2 Dec 2012 #9
Cosmocat Dec 2012 #10
efhmc Dec 2012 #11
polmaven Dec 2012 #12
LiberalFighter Dec 2012 #21
polmaven Dec 2012 #29
LiberalFighter Dec 2012 #30
polmaven Dec 2012 #31
TroyD Dec 2012 #13
Rowdyboy Dec 2012 #15
Cha Dec 2012 #23
Rowdyboy Dec 2012 #24
Tutonic Dec 2012 #16
Texin Dec 2012 #18
Dawson Leery Dec 2012 #19
Tarheel_Dem Dec 2012 #27
Filibuster Harry Dec 2012 #22
MrSlayer Dec 2012 #28

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:54 AM

1. That won't last long

You can bank on it.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:55 AM

2. The first poll for the same pollster in 2011 had Brown by 9.

So, may be you could calm down, let people from MA a chance to choose a candidate, and come back later to help.

Yes, I know it is much higher, but nobody has yet announced his/her intention to run.

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Response to Mass (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:58 AM

5. Ok, hope you are right and if Kerry is chosen the good people of

MA will elect a Democrat to replace him. We thought we would get rid of Walker in WI last year just by recalling him and we saw how that went. Sorry, but when the Senate is as close as it is I really don't want to take chances.

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Response to Mass (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 12:21 PM

20. They would need to consider the time needed to change the numbers.

2011 to Nov 2012 is a long time to build

A special not as long. It would require a strong campaign. And you have pointed out no one has announced their intention to run. It could be someone not mentioned that would fare much better against Brown.

Regardless of who runs the campaign needs to remind the voters that Brown supported Romney and use his record against him.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:56 AM

3. "If Obama wants to potentially lose a critical senate seat"

That would be convenient, wouldn't it?

So much for "Get us a bigger majority so we can get more done!!!"

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Response to vi5 (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 10:33 AM

14. I no longer have any idea

what Obama wants.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 08:57 AM

4. Just like appointing Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sebeilus to his cabinet screwed their states

 

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Response to MotherPetrie (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:05 AM

7. I know what happened to Arizona, but what happened to Kathleen Sebeilus's state?

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Response to midnight (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 11:14 AM

17. Brownback

 

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Response to MotherPetrie (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 05:47 PM

25. The people of those states voted for who they wanted to vote for and those are deep red states.

Those states screwed themselves.

Massachusettes is another story entirely and there is no reason, no excuse, not to be able to hold that seat with a good Dem candidate. None. John Kerry is not going to be around forever.

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Response to MotherPetrie (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 06:00 PM

26. I don't know why people keep mentioning Sebelius. She was term limited...

Yeesh. This is like the fourth or fifth time I've heard her name. She was going out anyway. She couldn't run for reelection and the seat would've probably gone Republican 2010 regardless if Sebelius stayed on for an extra two years.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:05 AM

6. This won't last.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:16 AM

8. Here is a different poll

http://www.sys-con.com/node/2492085

Largely name recognition, I know, but I wished Deval Patrick would reconsider.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:18 AM

9. I don't

 

see why he was elected in the first place? All he is going to do is be a vote against Warren and Obama. That just doesn't make sense at all. It is the reason why Congress is dysfunctional.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:27 AM

10. I agree strongly

Kerry would be great, but there have to be other people who would be great.

Outside of just being the jackasses they are, this, obviously, is a big part of their taking Susan Rice down.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 09:35 AM

11. What if a Kennedy were the candidate?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 10:26 AM

12. At the beginning of this past election cycle

Brown was far ahead of Warren in polls, as well. It will be a matter of running an effective campaign...which Martha Coakley did not do, but Elizabeth Warren did. MA Dems have learned a lot form the Brown/Coakley special election, and now realize that GOTV is absolutely essential - especially in special elections, where turnout is typically low.

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Response to polmaven (Reply #12)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 12:25 PM

21. Martha Coakley's campaign was totally ineffective.

They should had won that election.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #21)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 10:17 PM

29. Yep!

She seemed to assume that the seat was hers for the taking because she is a Democrat. She ran a horrible campaign, even going out of the country on vacation during the closing weeks.

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Response to polmaven (Reply #29)

Fri Dec 21, 2012, 05:41 PM

30. That doesn't send a very good message to the voters

If she thought a vacation was more important than seeking out their vote.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #30)

Sat Dec 22, 2012, 08:24 PM

31. Exactly.

She took it for granted that she would win Teddy's seat because she is a Democrat. It backfired on her bigtime.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 10:27 AM

13. I don't get this

I just don't get it.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 10:57 AM

15. I really don't see the point in wasting time and money electing people to the senate if Obama's just

going to stick them in his cabinet. This has cost us dearly in the past and he seems to have absolutely no concern about it. There are real people who are not in the senate who could actually hold these jobs but apparently thats not good enough for the president.

It just makes me tired and discouraged. Why even bother? Just give the senate to the assholes and be done with it.

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Response to Rowdyboy (Reply #15)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 04:30 PM

23. Who has President Obama pulled from the Senate in the past?

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Response to Cha (Reply #23)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 04:53 PM

24. Hilary Clinton and Ken Salazar of Colorado.....

While Clintons' New York seat was relatively safe, it still cost a bundle to keep and Salazars' in Colorado was very nearly lost. Plus Obama gave Arizona Jan Brewer as governor because he had to have Janet Napolitano for Homeland Security. Aren't there any retired senators, governors, college presidents, diplomats or Nobel prize winners he can choose from without raiding current office holders?

And remember, Massachusetts has a long history of electing so-called "moderate" governors from 1990-2006. For a supposed safely liberal state they often disappoint.

I'm just venting. Its a pain in the ass to have people work so hard and sacrifice so much to win these seats just to see them put up for grabs-and 2014 is going to be another awful year with far more Democratic senators running for re-election.

on edit: he also almost cost us Bidens' seat in Delaware (thank God for Christine O'Donnell being a nutcase) and we did lose his own senate seat in Illinois..

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 11:00 AM

16. Put a Kennedy up against him and he's toast. And the Kennedy's are not

about to let that seat fall into the hands of Toolboy.

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Response to Tutonic (Reply #16)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 11:49 AM

18. They couldn't do anything about it two years ago.

And who do the Kennedys have that could run? Is there anyone remaining in the family in that state that could mount a legitimate political campaign. I know that people have mentioned Vicki Kennedy as a possibility recently, but they certainly didn't move in that direction back then. It's not unusual for the widow of a politician to be named to fill their deceased husband's seat in government, but they didn't back then. Why now? Would she even have a prayer of a chance?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 12:16 PM

19. Obama should consider someone else.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #19)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 06:01 PM

27. Many of us argued this point well before the polling came out. A DU'er that I respect greatly.....

said that Obama owed Kerry BIG TIME. I don't get where that mindset comes from. No one is "owed" anything. If I were Harry Reid, I'd be really concerned about this, unless they change the rules of the Senate next year. I don't want to see Brown's smirking ass-face back in the chamber. No Way!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 03:53 PM

22. Great.

Wake up Massachusetts. You can't let him win again.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 06:15 PM

28. Of course he would. Obama would not be on the ticket.

 

Let's face it, many of the people that voted for the President only voted because he was on the ballot. We lost 2010 not because liberals stayed home but because all those minorities and young voters that came out to vote for Obama didn't come out in the midterms.

We only turn out strong for Presidential elections. The Republicans come out the same for every election. Unless the President keeps that ground game out there are stresses over and over that voting for Dems in the mids is the same as voting for him "one last time" we're going to get killed again in '14.

As I said from the second Kerry was being considered, making him SoS gives the seat right back to Brown. It's a poor strategic move.

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