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Sat Dec 15, 2012, 03:20 PM

2014 MA US Senate Race (Kerry is selected Secretary of State)

The Republican Nominee or the 2013 Special Election is likely to be outgoing US Senator Scott Brown-R.
The Democrats are going to have a primary.
The Massachusetts US House Delegation- the likely candidates are going to be Ed Markey or Mike Capuano.
Richard Neal,Jim McGovern,and Bill Keating are not well known statewide.
Joe Kennedy Jr.was just elected to the US House- he is more likely to suceed Warren in 2024.
Niki Tsongas is a weak campaigner.
John Tierney carries a lot of negative baggage.
Steve Lynch is too conservative to win in the Democratic Primary.
The candidates that tried to run in 2010 or 2012
Alan Khazei,Steve Pagulicia,Setti Warren,Chris Gabrielli,Robert Riech,and Warren Tolman.
Ed Markey will be the Democratic nominees in the 2013 Special Election.
In the General Election matchup.
Markey-D carries Western MA, Northern Suburbs of Boston Metro Area (Middlesex and Essex County) and the City of Boston.
Brown-R carries Central MA(Springfield and Worcester), Southeastern Part of MA.

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Reply 2014 MA US Senate Race (Kerry is selected Secretary of State) (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 OP
bigdarryl Dec 2012 #1
itsrobert Dec 2012 #2
wisteria Dec 2012 #12
Bombtrack Dec 2012 #3
democrattotheend Dec 2012 #4
BlueDemKev Dec 2012 #5
Tutonic Dec 2012 #6
ShadowLiberal Dec 2012 #7
Hawaii Hiker Dec 2012 #8
Tutonic Dec 2012 #9
pstokely Dec 2012 #10
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #11
Cha Dec 2012 #14
RudynJack Dec 2012 #13
Blue Nile Dec 2012 #15
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #16
Cha Dec 2012 #17
craigmatic Dec 2012 #18
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #19
jimmy the one Dec 2012 #20

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 03:24 PM

1. This is a DUMB move by Obama

Brown might not be going no where because of this move.Plus I'm not felling Kerry as SOS the man is 70 years old.There needs to be a younger person in that job.Plus I'm very suspicious as to why McCain and the republicans want Kerry so bad as the SOS in a Democratic Administration.These guys don't do anything unless its to there benefit

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 03:31 PM

2. Kerry looks fitter than most 30 year olds

This is not a life-term.

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 09:41 PM

12. Senator Kerry isn't 70 years old. And, even if he were he is extremely fit.

use to travel and the best qualified candidate for the postion.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 03:42 PM

3. Setti Warren or possibly Joe Curtatone (mayor of Somerville)

Please see my thread on Warren in the MA state forum.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 04:22 PM

4. Has the president actually announced his selection?

I doubt it, with everything going on. You might want to change the title until it has been confirmed.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 05:28 PM

5. How about Atty. General Martha Coakley?

Hee-hee...gotcha!


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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 05:44 PM

6. Scott Brown lost by 8 points to Elizabeth Warren.

More than Todd Aiken lost to Mckaskill. More than any other candidate running. In A deeply held blue state. He will be better off running for dog catcher because he will not hold state or national elective office again! The Democratic Party would not allow Kerry to go to State at the cost of losing the seat to the Rs. Now John McCain and Lindsey Graham are mental midgets and therefore want ot fantasize about Scottie being their boy again. But it simply is not going to happen. The man damaged is brand during the 2012 election and cannot recover.

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Response to Tutonic (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 06:19 PM

7. But Romney lost to Obama by 23 points, Brown ran 15 points better

Brown is still a tough opponent, despite the long and bruising campaign he just lost. Warren was simply 1) a better candidate then Brown's last opponent, & 2) Better funded then Brown, as well as 3) Benefiting some from Obama's coattails & higher democratic enthusiasm.

We won't have Obama's coattails in a special election, or national enthusiasm as high as it was this November, and I doubt that Brown will be outspent this time around, third party spending will likely flood the state.

Now, does that mean that things are totally hopeless for us? Of course not, but lets not kid ourselves, deep blue state or not, Brown is a tougher opponent then pretty much anyone else the republicans could throw at us.

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Response to ShadowLiberal (Reply #7)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 06:26 PM

8. I agree....Not only was Warren a very formidable opponent who raised tons of money

but turnout was high since it was a presidential election....turnout will fall substantially in a off year special election..

MA may be a blue state, but Brown will be as tough as any Repub they could put up..

Geez, just when i thought Democrats could enjoy a 55-45 majority for 2 years,

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Response to ShadowLiberal (Reply #7)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 07:49 PM

9. So you're saying that Scott will convince those voters that

are represented by 8% to come his way in the span of two years? I don't think so. The man is done. There are too many bright politicians in MA to let this loser mount a successfully campaign. FIrst you'll have John Kerry himself giving the Dem the nod, then Devall, then Warren, then Vicki Kennedy, etc. Besides, I'm thinkin that this seat is promised ot a Kennedy. I know that Teddy lives out of state but he has a year in which to move back in and start his career. He made it very clear during the convention that he is looking to get into the game in the next few years--so look for something along these lines to take place. Scott Brown needs to park his truck on K street because he sure ain't getting back into MA politics.

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Response to Tutonic (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 08:03 PM

10. Was Coakley a Democratic Akin?

nt

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Response to pstokely (Reply #10)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 09:04 PM

11. Coakley is the MA version of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

KKT lost the 2002 MD Governors Race to Bob Ehrlich-R. Ehrlich-R lost re-election in 2006 to O'Malley-D and also the 2010 re-match.
Coakley-D is either running for Governor in 2014 in which she faces either Charlie Baker or Scott Brown-R in the November General Election. Coakley-D will perform like O'Brien-D in 2002 or Coakley-D runs for a third term as Attorney General in 2014. She wins in the November General Election.

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Response to pstokely (Reply #10)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:09 PM

14. No. There is no Democratic Akin.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:00 PM

13. Coakley was a terrible candidate...

and Barney Frank says he has no interest. I'll go with Ed Markey.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:15 PM

15. Markey's chances

To OP

Based on your calculation about the areas where Markey or Brown are strong-do you feel Rep.Markey can win?

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:38 PM

16. The Democratic Frontrunners for the 2013 Special Election

Will be either Boston Area US Member-Markey-D or Capuano-D.
Lynch-D will not get the nomination since he is too conservative to win the Democratic nomination.
The Democratic Statewide Elected Officials ie Murray-D and Coakley-D are running for Governor in 2014. Galvin-D,Grossman-D,and Bump-D will seek re-election to their current office.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2012, 10:48 PM

17. Kerry just had a birthday.. Happy Birthday Senator

John Kerry

One year older than I and ..hey, he was born in Denver, Colorado, too!


John Kerry was born December 11, 1943 in Denver, Colorado. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1984 and was re-elected in 1990, 1996 and 2002. While serving in the Senate, he has supported free trade, expansive U.S. foreign and military policy, investment in education, environmental protection and growth of the high tech New Economy.


http://www.biography.com/people/john-kerry-10673562

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 12:18 AM

18. Well Obama owed Kerry for 2004 and the keynote speaker slot. I'm not worried about the senate seat

because MA is a blue state and we have a deep democratic bench there. We have the governor and all those congresspeople and a Kennedy or 2. Finding a replacement shouldn't be hard.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 06:50 AM

19. Scott Brown(R-MA)

If Scott Brown(R-MA) wins the 2013 Special Election. He runs again for a full 6 year term in 2014. 2014 is not a Presidential Year with a strong Democratic incumbent on the ballot. The 2014 MA Governors Race between Democrat Martha Coakey and Republican Charlie Baker is a Tossup. Democrats will need a Top Tier candidate who does not have any negative baggage or is less likely to self destruct. Deval Patrick,Steve Grossman,Robert Reich,Ed Markey,Mike Capuano,or Joe Kennedy Sr.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 16, 2012, 08:53 AM

20. which repub senators would oppose john kerry?

which, if any(!), republicans would oppose john kerry as secr of state?

I'll gamble with lindsey graham, who'll think up some cockamamie reason to. He once tried to be a democrat president, to beat us!

I'll gamble he passes ~85 - 15.

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