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Fri Dec 14, 2012, 01:20 PM

Why not Deval Patrick as a possible Kerry replacement?

Patrick has already stated that he will not seek reelection in 2014. He is younger than Ed Markey and is more prominent. Granted, Markey does have those millions to spend on an election, but wouldn't funds be available from the DNC in this race and from Democratic-leaning PACs? Patrick won a statewide election twice. Markey's been holding onto a congressional seat within the same district since the mid-70s IIRC. That's certainly nothing to sneer at, but one district does not a state make. I'm just thinking that from the perspective of statewide politics, it would seem that Patrick would have a better hand to play than Markey and would be more formidable challenger to Scott Brown if it comes to this.

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Response to Texin (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 01:39 PM

1. Can it be an appointment or does it have to be a special election?

I think that would determine the answer to your question.

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Response to Myrina (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 01:56 PM

2. It's by special election. Patrick could resign as governor and announce for the open seat.

Assuming that such a seat becomes vacant. He'd have to mount a campaign and win the thing, but I think it's widely expected that he'd win it if he ran for it. And he's already announced that he won't seek reelection in '14.

I don't know whether MA has a Lt. Gov like Texas does, but I'm sure there must be someone in second command to fill an interim position. I also don't know whether MA law extends to statewide positions. The MA law was enacted, ironically enough, because Teddy Kennedy didn't want Romney to fill a vacant senate seat (formerly held by a Dem) to a rethug. Unfortunately, as with everything, the worm has turned and this 145-special election might come into play for the second time in two years and have an existing Dem replaced by a new rethug - or the one who just lost the seat a month ago.

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Response to Texin (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 02:20 PM

3. Deval Patrick appointing himself to the US Senate or running in the 2013/2014 Special Election would

mean Tim Murray ends up being the next Governor of MA. Murray would have the incumbency advantage in the 2014 Democratic Primary.
Deval Patrick-D could also defeat Scott Brown-R in the November 2014 General Election- whether Brown-R is the incumbent or the challenger.
Deval Patrick-D is more interested in seeking the Democratic Nomination for POTUS in 2016 than being a freshman US Senator.
Ed Markey-D has been waiting in the wings to run for the US Senate since 1984(Tsongas-D retires- The Democrats have a primary between Lt Governor John Kerry-D and 5th CD US Rep James Shannon-D, Kerry-D wins the Democratic Nomination and the November General Election. Then in 2004 (There was a 50-50 chance Kerry-D was going to defeat Bush-R- causing a special election to take place in 2005/2006- Markey-D would have been the establishment candidate in that race along with Meehan-D- who left Congress in 2007 to be a chancellor of UMASS. -Kerry-D lost the 2004 Presidential Race). 2009/2010(following Kennedy's-D death. The establishment Democratic candidates were Martha Coakley-D and Mike Capuano-D- Coakley-D who won the Democratic nomination in 2010 lost in the General Election to Scott Brown-R). 2012(unseating Brown-R. Brown-R had a high favorable ratings in 2011/2012- none of the MA US House Members ie Markey-D or Capuano-D wanted to give up their safe US House Seats to face an uphill US Senate Race against Brown-R.- Progressives in MA and nationally were in love with Elizabeth Warren-D who ended up defeating Brown-R in the November 2012 General Election by a 8 point margin- greater than the Kerry-Weld race in 1996. 2013/2014 is Ed Markey-D best chance of running for higher office. I would like to see Brown-R lose an election in a off year/special election year against a 2nd tier Democratic challenger than against a top tier statewide elected official.

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Response to Texin (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 02:23 PM

4. I liked the idea.

I also read on Political Wire that he is considering Vicki Kennedy, which would be kind of cool. I guess there is the same lack of experience argument against her that there was against Caroline, but on the other hand, I would not mind having Vicki Kennedy in the Senate to fight for the things Teddy believed in.

I would also be very happy if Patrick ran. Markey, Capuano and Tsongas would be good choices too. There are plenty of good Democrats in Massachusetts who would make good senators if Kerry becomes SOS.

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Response to Texin (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 04:05 PM

5. Patrick's not ambitious enough.

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Response to MannyGoldstein (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 05:01 PM

6. Really? Many are thinking the reason he's not going run in again in '14 is because he's

going to throw in to the POTUS race. Regardless of what people say about Hilary, I don't believe for one second that she's a lead pipe cinch. She lost the nomination the last time around to a younger and more inexperienced candidate. Who's to say there isn't another such challenger on either side of the aisle coming up in 2016? We can't know what we don't know, but what I do know is that Clinton will be pushing 70. If she thinks she's run ragged with SoS job now, how the hell is she going to hold up four years from now in a two-year run for the White House, followed by four long, grueling years? Everyone can just take a gander at President Obama (and any other President that's ever been photographed) after about two years in that office and tell what a physical, psychological and emotional toll it takes to helm that office.

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Response to Texin (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 05:28 PM

7. I was joking.

Patrick is blindingly ambitious.

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Response to Texin (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:41 PM

8. The outgoing Democratic Governors that are potential Presidential candidates in 2016 are

Martin O'Malley(D-MD)- will only run if Hillary-D does not run.
Former Democratic Governors of small state ie Brian Schweitzer(D-MT) and John Lynch(D-NH) are less likely to win the Democratic nomination in 2016.
Former Democratic Governors of red southern states ie Mike Beebe(D-AR) and Steven Beshear(D-KY) are too old to run for President.
Former Democratic Governors that left in 2010 due to term limits. Jennifer Granholm(D-MI) was born in Canada, Bill Richardson(D-NM) carries alot of negative baggage, Ed Rendell(D-PA) is too old,
Deval Patrick(D-MA) is the only candidate that could pose a serious challenge against the establishment candidate(Hillary,Biden,Cuomo,or Warner) in the Democratic Primary and defeat the likely Republican nominee -Rubio(R-FL) in the November General Election.

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