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Thu Dec 13, 2012, 02:16 PM

2014 US Senate Election.

AL(Sessions-R)-seeking re-election. (Solid Republican)
AK(Begich-D)-seeking re-election. (Tossup/Slight DEM)-(Treadwell-R or Miller-R)
AR(Pryor-D)-seeking re-election. (Lean DEM)- (Womack-R)
CO(Udall-D)-seeking re-election (Lean DEM)- (Norton-R )
DE(Coons-D)-seeking re-election (Solid Democratic)
GA(Chambliss-R)-seeking re-election (Lean/Likely GOP)- faces a tough GOP primary (Handel-R)- vs (Barnes-D)
ID(Risch-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)
IL(Durbin-D)-if Durbin seeks re-election (Solid Democratic)- if Durbin-D retires (Lean/Likely Democratic). (Simon-D,Hynes-D or Madigan-D)
IA(Harkin-D)-if Harkin seeks re-election (Likely Democratic)- if Harkin-D retires (Lean Democratic). (Braley-D vs King-R)
KS(Roberts-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)
KY(McConnell-R)-seeking re-election (Lean Republican) (Judd-D or Conway-D)
LA(Landrieu-D)-seeking re-election. (Lean Republican) (Cassidy-R,Fleming-R or Landry-R)
ME(Collins-R)-seeking re-election- Likely/Solid Republican if Collins-R wins the GOP nomination. Tossup/Lean Democratic if Collins-R loes in the GOP primary.
MA(Kerry-D)-if Kerry-D does not get a Cabinet post- he seeks re-election (Solid Democratic)- if Kerry-D gets a Cabinet post- a Special Election in 2013 (whoever Patrick-D appoints vs Brown-R)-Tossup. A 2014 rematch (if Brown-R is the incumbent- Tossup, if the Democrat is the incumbent-Lean Democratic). (Capuano-D,S. Warren-D,Chang Diaz-D.)
MI(Levin-D)-if Levin-D seeks re-election (Solid Democratic)-if Levin-D retires (Lean Democratic) (Peters-D vs Miller-R)
MN(Franken-D)-seeking re-election (Lean Democratic)- (Bachmann-R)
MS(Cochran-R)-if Cochran-R seeks re-election (Solid Republican)-if Cochran-R retires (Lean GOP)- (Democrats have plenty of top tier candidates (Moore-D,Hood-D,or Taylor-D). Possible DEM pickup if OPEN Seat- GOP nominee is more rightwing than Trent Lott.
MT(Baucus-D)-seeking re-election (Likely Democratic) (Rehberg-R or Daines-R or Edmunds-R)
NE(Johanns-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)
NH(Shaheen-D)-seeking re-election (Lean/Likely Democratic)-(Guinta-R or Sununu-R)
NJ(Lautenberg-D)-will make a decision whether or not to run again after the 2013 Governors Race. If Christie is re-elected - Lautenberg-D retires. gets replaced by a Democrat(Booker-D or Sweeney-D). If Christie were to lose in 2013. Lautenberg-D could end up running again knowing a Democrat will suceed him if he does not complete his term in Nov 2020.
NM(Udall-D)-seeking re-election (Solid Democratic)
NC(Hagan-D)-seeking re-election (Lean Democratic) (Thillis-R or Ellmers-R or McHenry-R)
OK(Inhofe-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican).
OR(Merkely-D)-seeking re-election (Likely Democratic)
RI(Reed-D)-seeking re-election (Solid Democratic)
SC(Graham-R)-seeking re-election (Likely GOP)-faces a tough GOP primary challenge-R. Seat remains Republican
SC(VACANT-R)- whoever Haley-R selects will seek re-election in 2014. Seat is likely to remain Republican.
SD(Johnson-D)-if Johnson-D runs again (Tossup) if Johnson-D retires (Lean Republican)- (Rounds-R vs Herseth-D)
TN(Alexander-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)
TX(Cornyn-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)
VA(Warner-D)-seeking re-election (Likely/Solid Democratic). (McDonnell-R gets clobbered by Warner-D in 2014) (Cuccinelli-R gets clobbered by Kaine-D in 2018).
WV(Rockefeller-D)-if Rockefeller-D runs again (Tossup)-if Rockefeller-D retires (Lean Republican) (Capito-R vs Tennant-D)
WY(Enzi-R)-seeking re-election (Solid Republican)

Republicans hold onto all of the Republican held seats up for grabs in 2014 (ME,KY,and SC Special) plus pick up (SD and WV). +2R




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Reply 2014 US Senate Election. (Original post)
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 OP
Panasonic Dec 2012 #1
brooklynite Dec 2012 #11
Bucky Dec 2012 #17
SugarShack Dec 2012 #26
brooklynite Dec 2012 #28
LukeFL Dec 2012 #32
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #2
Fawke Em Dec 2012 #13
Ter Dec 2012 #14
Fawke Em Dec 2012 #21
life long demo Dec 2012 #3
66 dmhlt Dec 2012 #6
tabbycat31 Dec 2012 #10
brooklynite Dec 2012 #12
Proud Public Servant Dec 2012 #4
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #7
kimbutgar Dec 2012 #5
DeeDeeNY Dec 2012 #8
Chan790 Dec 2012 #9
Blue_In_AK Dec 2012 #15
Liberal_Stalwart71 Dec 2012 #16
Bucky Dec 2012 #18
Liberal_Stalwart71 Dec 2012 #20
libdem4life Dec 2012 #27
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #19
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #22
UrbScotty Dec 2012 #23
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #24
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #25
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #29
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #30
bornskeptic Dec 2012 #36
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #37
davidpdx Dec 2012 #31
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #33
davidpdx Dec 2012 #34
NPolitics1979 Dec 2012 #35

Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 02:19 PM

1. Actually, Republicans will lose ALL of their seats in '14

 

if they continue to be assholes about cutting their precious DoD & oil/gas money.

That includes the House.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:46 PM

11. This is an incredibly simplistic assessment...

You really expect Republicans to lose solid Republican seats over Defense spending and oil subsidies, when they didn't lose them this time, or last time of in the 90's or 80's or...

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #11)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 05:57 PM

17. That is an incredibly generous use of the word "assessment"

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #11)

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 02:16 PM

26. Senate races are not subject to the gerrymandering. They are statewide. If Dems vote, dems win.

 

But under the constitution, all bills containing revenue must originate in the house. Those seats are gerrmandered, and that is where all of our troubles lie. The senate stops it. But we still don't get any good bills, for US out of this bunch.

If the seat leans repub, there is nothing we can do about that. If it were my district, I would become a republican, and TAKE OUT THE SITTING REPUB WHO IS PART OF THE PROBLEM.

Then you have a sitting congresscritter in his first term, vunerable. Then go get a good dem. These races are every other year. Let's get rid of Boehner, Canter, and have the dems in CA take out Pelosi with someone who is not corporately entrenched. Lindsey Graham, McConnel, and those could be removed by a very good dem, even in those states. We don't have to take this anymore.

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Response to SugarShack (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 02:29 PM

28. Not relevant to the issue

The OP opines that we can win all SENATE seats, including those in States with heavily Republican voter blocs.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #11)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 12:20 AM

32. Your response is too nice

It's obvious the DUer is too naive. FB is all over the fiscal cliff and regular american people who call themselves republicans are all defending the actions ( or non- action) of the trators in congress.

It will take this county to literally go down In flames for half of the country to wake up. The problem is, we will all pay for it.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 03:23 PM

2. Looking at the Republican seats up for grabs in 2014.

AL(Sessions-R)-Solid Republican- The only Democrats that could pose a serious challenge to Sessions-R are Ron Sparks-D or Bobby Bright-D.
GA(Chambliss-R)- Likely to face a tough GOP primary challenge-forcing him to move to the right in order to win the Republican nomination. Democrats could run Thurbert Baker-D or Mike Thurmond-D- giving DSCC a potential of selecting another black US Senator. or Cathy Cox-D. Republican retention if Chambliss-R runs again and survives a tough primary challenge without becoming more controversial than he is. Democratic takeover if Chambliss-R loses in the Republican primary and Democratic nominate a top tier candidate.
ID(Risch-R)- Solid Republican- ID is the most Republican state up for grabs in 2014.
KS(Roberts-R)- Solid Republican- Democratic bench is weak. (Sebelius-D is associated with Obamacare. Democrats will end up with Boyda-D
KY(McConnell-R)- Democrats have plenty of candidates. (Jack Conway, Allison Lundergan Grimes, Crit Luallen and Ashley Judd-D). Some of the Top Tier Democrats want to run for Governor in 2015 or the US Senate in 2016 against Rand Paul-R.
ME(Collins-R)- Collins-R has to lose in the GOP primary-if order for the seat to go Democratic.
MS(Cochran-R)- If Cochran retires or loses in the GOP primary. Democrats will nominate Mike Moore,Jim Hood,or Gene Taylor-D.
NE(Johanns-R)-Solid Republican.
OK(Inhofe-R)- The only Democrats that could pose a serious challenge to Inhofe-R if Brad Henry-D,Jari Askins-D or Drew Edmundson-D.
SC(Graham-R)- Likely to face a tough GOP primary challenge- Democrats could run Inez Tenenbaum-D or Jim Hodges-D for either this seat or the DeMint-R seat.
TN(Alexander-R)- The only Democrats that poses a serious challenge is Jim Cooper-D or Lincoln Davis-D.
TX(Cornyn-R)- Biil White or Julian Castro-D
WY(Enzi-R)-Dave Fruedenthal-D

Republicans will lose GA,KY,and SC-Special.
ME and MS if the Republican incumbents don't run.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:52 PM

13. I keep wondering why Kentucky is trying to steal Ashley Judd.

Yes, she is a native of Kentucky, but she now LIVES in Tennessee and has been an active member of the Tennessee Democratic Party for some time.

Are we really expecting her to move from her palatial Tennessee home - that is much nearer to Nashville, where she records - to move back to Kentucky?

Why can't she just stay here and beat Alexander?

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Response to Fawke Em (Reply #13)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:57 PM

14. Because she has almost zero chance to win a statewide race in TN

 

n/t

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Response to Ter (Reply #14)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 12:14 AM

21. Same as Kentucky.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 03:55 PM

3. Question: are there elections in 2013?

Anyone?

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Response to life long demo (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 08:32 PM

10. yes the major ones are NJ and VA governor

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #10)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:47 PM

12. ...and Mayor of NYC

...first Democratic prospect in 20 years.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 04:12 PM

4. Different, more pessimistic analysis

Here's the bottom line: there isn't a single factor right now that favors the Dems in 2014.

First of all, there's history: midterm elections during a president's second term are rarely kind to his party. Then there are the two structural factors that matter most, and both give the advantage to the GOP:

1) Dems have to defend 20 seats, Republicans only have to defend 13.

2) Dems have to defend 7 seats in red (and mostly deep-red) states, all of which Romney won: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia. Republicans only have to defend one seat in a blue state (Maine).

Just looking at that, I'd suggest at a minimum a net loss of one Dem seat: we'll probably pick up Maine, but at a minimum will lose Arkansas and North Carolina. Frankly, I think we'll lose Alaska too; Begich only managed to squeak by in by 4000 votes in a race where Ted Stevens was found guilt of 7 counts of felony the week before Election Day. Polls are also showing Rockefeller vulnerable in WV. Baucus, Johnson, and Landrieu probably have enough corporate money behind them to keep their seats and keep representing industries instead of people. So, minimum one lost seat, maximum 3.

What other factors are there? Two come to mind:

1. Potential retirements. Are there any candidates who might be forced by age or sudden infirmity to retire in 2014? Lautenberg (80 in 2014), Rockefeller (77), and Harkin (75) are the 3 most obvious candidates. If Rockefeller retires, WV is lost. Harkin's seat could easily be up for grabs if he vacates; Iowa still elects plenty of Republicans on a statewide level. NJ is probably safe. There are no similar GOP retirements that would open a seat to a potential Dem.

2. Tea Party primaries. The prime teahadist targets are likely to be Collins, Graham, Alexander, Chambliss, and McConnell, in that order or likelihood. Regardless of their success, only Collins is from a state that's likely to vote Dem against a teahadist, and we already counted her.

So there it is. Realistically -- repeat, realistically -- best-case scenario is a net loss of one seat. Probable scenario is a net loss of 3-4. Worst case scenario -- all the red states get redder and throw out their blue dogs, plus Harkin retires -- we could have a net loss of 7 and lose control of the Senate.

That could change; the GOP could become so odious that they inspire popular revolt and a 2010-in-reverse. But barring that, this is how it looks to me.

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Response to Proud Public Servant (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 07:22 PM

7. Looking at the Democratic held US Senate Seats in Romney States.

AK(Begich-D),AR(Pryor-D),LA(Landrieu-D),MT(Baucus-D),NC(Hagan-D),SD(Johnson-D),and WV(Rockefeller-D)

SD(Johnson-D) and WV(Rockefeller-D) have facing top tier GOP challengers - Rounds(R-SD) and Capito(R-WV) and they are potential retirements. SD is a Tossup if Johnson-D seeks re-election, Lean GOP Takeover if Johnson-D retires. WV is in the Tossup/Lean GOP collumn if Rockefeller-D retires- the likely Democratic nominee will be Natalie Tennant.
AK(Begich-D), LA(Landreiu-D), and NC(Hagan-D) were elected or re-elected in 2008 by a single digit margin against weak or 2nd tier GOP challengers. In AK(Stevens-R despite his felony convictions was an elder statesman in AK politics and Palin-R was also on the GOP ticket). Begich-D could lose to Parnell-R or Treadwell-R but survive against Miller-R.
LA(Landrieu-D ) has faced top tier GOP opposition in 2002(Suzie Haik Terell-R), 2008(John Kennedy-R) and 2014-(Can she avoid the December Runoff-assuming she fails to get over 50% in the Open Primary election.
NC(Hagan-D) knocked off Liddy Dole(R-NC). in 2014. her GOP challenger will either be Thillis-R,Ellmers-R or McHenry-R.
Democrats will probally hold onto LA and NC.
AR(Pryor-D) ran unopposed in 2008, state underwent a Republican makeover in 2010. Pryor-D is a household name in AR- due to his father- former Governor and US Senator David Pryor-D.
MT(Baucus-D) has alot of seniority. GOP opposition includes (Rehberg-R, Daines-R or Hill-R)

Democrats lose SD,WV,and AK.
Democrats hold onto MT,AR,and NC.
LA will be decided in the December 2014 runnoff. (Landrieu-D vs GOP US House Member-R)

OPEN Democratic held seats in Purple States.
IA(Harkin-D) and MI(Levin-D).
IA(Republicans are likely to nominate Steve King-R instead of Tom Latham-R) Democrats will nominate either Dave Loesback-D, Bruce Braley-D or Tom Vilsack-D)
MI(Gary Peters-D vs Candice Miller-R)- Tossup until Nov 2014.

Democratic Incumbents running for re-election in Purple States.
CO(Udall-D),MN(Franken-D),NH(Shaheen-D),NM(Udall-D),OR(Merkley-D),and VA(Warner-D)
Udall(D-NM),OR(Merkley-D),and VA(Warner-D) are strongly favored to win re-election.
Udall(D-CO) and NH(Shaheen-D) are favored to win re-election.
Franken(D-MN) will face a tough race- but will win re-election.

The likely/worse case scenario for Democrats is losing SD,WV,AK,MI(OPEN),and LA(runnoff).
Democrats survive in AR,IA(OPEN),MN,MT and NC.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 04:13 PM

5. Could it get to the point that people become so disgusted they kick out repugs even in solid red

states? Or are these populations so far gone they are unable to realize the repugs are screwing them over royally?

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 07:31 PM

8. Bachmann running for Senate?


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Response to DeeDeeNY (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 13, 2012, 08:08 PM

9. That could be a blessing.

Can she run for both her current House seat and the Senate at the same time? Even if legally-allowed (and I don't see why not), she'll get creamed on it in the media and she barely won reelection last time. She'd be toast.

So...we keep the MN Senate seat and bonus-pickup a House seat in a lean-GOP district.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 03:58 PM

15. I see they show two possible R opponents for Mark Begich,

but in actuality, every Republican in Alaska will probably run against him. The 2014 Republican senatorial primary here is going to be a real show.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 04:06 PM

16. You're assuming that the demographics remain the same. They won't. I think we have a good chance

in some of these elections.

Barnes (GA) hasn't committed to running yet, has he? I don't think so.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #16)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 05:58 PM

18. Here's the only demographics you need: in off year elections Democratic turn out drops 10-20%

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Response to Bucky (Reply #18)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 11:44 PM

20. Yep, that's true, but not an excuse not to do anything about it.

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Response to Bucky (Reply #18)

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 02:18 PM

27. Then the foxes get in the henhouse again and Obama gets blamed for not "delivering"

If the suspected flake-out percentage stay home in 2014...this list is a is distressing start.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:09 PM

19. 2014 US Senate Election-assuming Kerry-D becomes Secretary of State next month.

Solid Republican
AL(Sessions-R)32R
ID(Risch-R)33R
KS(Roberts-R)34R
NE(Johanns-R)35R
OK(Inhofe-R)36R
TN(Alexander-R)37R
TX(Conryn-R)38R
WY(Enzi-R)39R
Likely Republican
GA(Chambliss-R)40R
Likely to face a tough GOP primary challenge but will win. Defeats a 2nd or 3rd tier Democratic challenger in the November General Election.
KY(McConnell-R)41R
Democrats have plenty of top tier candidates- current of former statewide elected officials, Luallen-D,Conway-D,Mongiardo-D,Lundergran Grimes-D,and Chandler-D. Some of these listed want to run for Governor in 2015 or challenge Paul-R in 2016. Judd-D runs if any of these potential Democratic challengers including Yarmuth-D,Abramson-D and Beshear-D take a pass.
ME(Collins-R)42R
Likely to face a tough GOP primary challenge but will win. Defeats a 2nd or 3rd tier Democratic challenger ie (Cynthia Dill-D) in the November General Election. I anticipating in seeing a 3 way race between Cutler-I vs Summers-R vs Dill-D. There is also a chance that Cutler-I comes in first place in the November General Election.- the question is does Cutler-I caucus with the Democrats or does he caucus with the Republicans.
MS(Cochran-R)43R
If Cochran-R runs again- Solid Republican, If Cochran-R retires (Lean/Likely-Republican-R) depending on whether a 1st or 2nd tier Democratic candidate runs. (AG Jim Hood-D or Gene Taylor-D)
SC(Graham-R)44R
Likely to face a tough GOP primary challenger but will win. Defeats a 2nd or 3rd tier Democratic challenger in the November General Election.
SC(VACANT-R)45R.
Whoever Haley-R appoints is likely to survive in the GOP primary and defeats a 2nd or 3rd tier Democratic challenger in the November General Election.
Tossup/Lean Republican
SD(Johnson-D) - If Johnson-D runs again. (Johnson-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup but Rounds-R ends up winning. If Johnson-D retires (Rounds-R vs Herseth-D)-Lean/Likely Republican. 46R
WV(Rockefeller-D)- If Rockefeller-D runs again (Rockefeller-D vs Capito-R)-Tossup but Capito-R ends up winning. If Rockefeller-D retires (Capito-R vs Rahall-D)- Lean/Likely Republican. 47R
AK(Begich-D)- likely to face plenty of top tier GOP challengers- Palin,Parnell,Treadwell,Leman,Sullivan,or Miller. The 2014 AK US Senate Race is similar to the 2012 MT and ND US Senate Race. 48R
LA(Landrieu-D)-likely to face plenty of top tier GOP challengers- Cassidy,Fleming,Landry,etc. Landrieu-D has survived tough GOP opposition during her 2002 and 2008 re-election bid. Landrieu-D goes down in a 2014 GOP wave. 49R
Tossup/Lean Democratic
MA(Markey-D or Brown-R). If Markey-D wins the 2013 Special Election, He is strongly favored to win in the 2014 General Election. If Brown-R wins the 2013 Special Election. The 2014 MA US Senate Election will depend on which Democrat challenges Brown-R. (Patrick-D vs Brown-R)-Lean Democratic. (Markey-D vs Brown-R)-Tossup. (Brown-R vs Capuano-D)-Lean Republican. 36D
NC(Hagan-D)-likely to face plenty of top tier GOP challengers- Ellmers,McHenry,or Tillis-R. NC is a purplish red state- so Hagan-R could survive if she runs a good campaign and/or if the Republicans self destruct. 37D. NC will end up being Republicans 50th seat- assuming 2014 is a GOP year.
MT(Baucus-D)-GOP challengers ie Rehberg-R and or Hill-R have lost high profile Statewide Elections. Rehberg-R lost 1996 US Senate Race to Baucus-D and 2012 US Senate Race to Tester-D, Hill-R lost the 2012 Governors Race to Bullock-D. Daines-R and Fox-R were just elected to their position in 2012. Racicot-R is Baucus-D serious opponent but he has tooken a pass in 2002,2008 and 2012. 38D
AR(Pryor-D)-likely to face Womack-R in the November General Election. Pryor-D would be in more trouble if Huckabee-R runs. Other Republicans that could pose a serious threat to Pryor-D is members of the Hutchinson family (Asa Hutchison or Jeremy Hutchinson) 39D. AR will end up being the Republicans 51st Street if 2014 is a GOP year.
Likely Democratic.
CO(Udall-D)40D
IA(Harkin-D)41D.- An open seat means (Vilsack-D vs Latham-R)-Lean Democratic, (Vilsack-D vs King-R)-Likely Democratic, (Braley-D vs Latham-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic. (Braley-D vs King-R)-Lean Democratic. (Loesback-D vs Latham-R)-Tossup/Lean Republican. (Loesback-D vs King-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic. If Harkin-D runs again- he is favored to win re-election.
MI(Levin-D)42D.- An open seat means (Peters-D vs Miller-R)-Lean Democratic, (Peters-D vs Hoekstra-R)-Likely Democratic. Democrats could nominate Granholm-D or Schauer-D and still win. The only way MI goes Republican is if Lynn Rivers runs and gets the Democratic nomination. If Levin-D runs again- he is favored to win re-election.
MN(Franken-D)43D
NH(Shaheen-D)44D
NJ(Lautenberg-D)45D- Lautenberg-D retires. Democratic nominee will either be Pallone-D or Andrews-D. Booker-D is likely to run for Governor in 2013 and 2017.
Solid Democratic
DE(Coons-D)46D
IL(Durbin-D)-If Durbin-D retires- he will be suceeded by Lt Governor Sheila Simon-D. Lisa Madigan-D runs for Governor. Michelle Obama-D challenges Kirk-R in 2016. If Durbin-D runs again- he is strongly favored to win re-election. 47D
NM(Udall-D)48D
OR(Merkely-D)49D
RI(Reed-D)50D
VA(Warner-D)51D. (Warner-D vs McDonnell-R)- 20-30 point advantage for Warner-D.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 02:59 PM

22. 2014 US Senate Election including Vacancies in HI and MA.

Kerry(D-MA) is expected to be nominated and confirmed as US Secretary of State next month.
Under MA State law- the Govenor appoints the replacement and a special election to fill the seat takes place 150 days after the vacancy/appointment. The appointed Senator could or could not run in the upcoming special election.- The winner of the May/June 2013 Special Election in MA would then have a run again for a first full 6 year term in 2014.
Patrick(D-MA) is considering appointing either Vicki Kennedy or Michael Dukakis as caretaker appointes to the soon to be vacant Kerry seat- with a promise neither runs in the 2013/2014 Special Election. US House Members Ed Markey and Mike Capuano seek the Democratic nomination for the 2013/2014 Special Election- the winner of the Special Election will face Scott Brown-R in the General Election and the loser in the Democratic primary-remains in the US House. If Scott Brown-R were to win the 2013/2014 Special Election- then Deval Patrick- who is not seeking a 3rd term as Governor in 2014 or the loser of the Democratic primary in the 2013/2014 Special Election- (Capuano-D or Markey-D)- challenges and defeats Brown-R in the 2014 General Election.
Inouye(D-HI) sucessor. Abercrombie is likely to appoint first term US House Member Colleen Hanabusa to the Inouye Seat. If she is sworn in before Jan 2013- she will be HI Senior US Senator or If She is sworn in after Jan 2013- she will be HI Junior US Senator.
Hanubusa-D defeats Lingle-R in the 2014 Special Election.
DeMint(R-SC) sucessor, US Rep Tim Scott(R-SC) is favored to win the 2014 Special Election-assuming he does not get teabagged in the Republican primary by one of Strom Thurmond's sons.
Other US Senate Vacancies.
NJ(Lautenberg-D)-if Lautenberg is unable to complete his term which expires in 2014. Governor Chris Christie(R-NJ) will appoint the replacement-either ex NJ Govenor Christie Todd Whitman(R-NJ)- who then faces a tough General Election campaign in 2014 against either Newark Mayor Cory Booker(D-NJ)-assuming he loses to Christie in the 2013 Governors Race and decides against suceeding Christie in 2017 or US Reps Frank Pallone(D-NJ) or Robert Andrews(D-NJ).
IL(Kirk-R)-if Kirk-R is unable to complete his US Senate Term which expires in 2016- Governor Quinn(D-IL) could appoint a replacement to serve until the 2014 Special Election and the 2016 General Election. If Michelle Obama is suppose to be the Democratic Nominee for the US Senate in 2016- then Quinn should appoint a caretaker like Roland Burris-D who runs in the 2014 Special Election- then retires in 2016. otherwise he appoints Dan Hynes-D to the seat.
Republicans are favored to win.
AL(Sessions-R),GA(Chambliss-R or the Tea Party Candidate-R),ID(Risch-R),KS(Roberts-R),KY(McConnell-R),ME(assuming its Collins-R),MS(Cochran-R or Likely Republican Nominee-R),NE(Johanns-R),OK(Inhofe-R),SC(Graham-R or Tea Party Candidate-R),TN(Alexander-R),TX(Cornyn-R),and WY(Enzi-R) plus Democratic held seats in WV(Capito-R vs Rockefeller-D or Tennant-D or Rahall-D) and SD(Rounds-R vs Johnson-D or Herseth Sandlin-D)
Democrats are favored to win.
Safe- DE(Coons-D),IL(Durbin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MT(Baucus-D),NM(Udall-D),OR(Merkley-D),RI(Reed-D),and VA(Warner-D). NJ and MA belong in the safe DEM collumn.
Likely- CO(Udall-D),IA(Harkin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MI(Levin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MN(Franken-D),and NH(Shaheen-D)
Lean- AR(Pryor-D),LA(Landrieu-D),and NC(Hagan-D)
Tossup- AK(Begich-D)

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 03:52 PM

23. I don't see Candice Miller running for Senate from MI

More likely that Huizenga, Amash, or Walberg would run. Maybe even Bill Schuette.

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Response to UrbScotty (Reply #23)

Tue Dec 18, 2012, 05:46 PM

24. Candice Miller not running means a Democrat will win the OPEN MI Seat.

Assuming Levin retires. The Democratic nominee is likely to be Peters-D, Whitmer-D is likely be the Democratic Nominee for Governor.
On the Republican side.- The candidates listed are too conservative to win statewide.
Miller-R and Engler-R have won statewide during the 1990's but they could be the Tommy Thompson of MI.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 02:07 PM

25. 2014 US Senate Election- including Special Election in HI and SC.

34 Democratic and 31 Republican US Senators are to facing re-election in 2014.
Solid Democratic.
DE(Coons-D)35D
HI(Hanabusa-D)36D
IL(Durbin-D)37D
MA(Markey/Capuano-D)38D
MT(Baucus-D)39D
NJ(Lautenberg/Booker-D)40D
NM(Udall-D)41D
OR(Merkley-D)42D
RI(Reed-D)43D
VA(Warner-D)44D
Solid Republican
AL(Sessions-R)32R
GA(Chambliss-R)33R
ID(Risch-R)34R
KS(Roberts-R)35R
MS(Cochran-R)36R
NE(Johanns-R)37R
OK(Inhofe-R)38R
SC(Graham-R)39R
SC(Scott-R)40R
TN(Alexander-R)41R
TX(Cornyn-R)42R
WY(Enzi-R)43R
Likely Democratic
CO(Udall-D)45D
IA(Harkin-D)46D
MI(Levin-D or Peters-D)47D
MN(Franken-D)48D
NH(Shaheen-D)49D
Likely Republican
KY(McConnell-R)44R
ME(Collins-R)45R
Lean Democratic
AK(Begich-D)50D
AR(Pryor-D)51D
LA(Landrieu-D)52D
NC(Hagan-D)53D
Lean Republican
SD(Rounds-R)46R
WV(Capito-R)47R

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2012, 02:13 PM

29. 2014 US Senate Election-

Democratic incumbents- Coons(D-DE),Hanabusa(D-HI),Udall(D-NM),Merkley(D-OR),Reed(D-RI),and Warner(D-VA) are running again and are strongly favored to win re-election. 40D
Democratic incumbents- Udall(D-CO),Franken(D-MN),Baucus(D-MT),Shaheen(D-NH),and Hagan(D-NC) are running again- but are favored to win a competitive re-election campaign. 45D
Democratic incumbents- Begich(D-AK),Pryor(D-AR) and Landrieu(D-LA) are running again but will be facing a highly competitive general election campaign.
OPEN or Potential OPEN Democratic held seats.
Democrats are favored to win IL(Durbin/Simon-D),IA(Harkin/Braley-D),MI(Levin/Peters-D) and NJ(Lautenberg/Booker-D). 49D
Republicans are favored to win SD(Johnson-D/Rounds-R),and WV(Rockefeller-D/Capito-R). 33R
The wildcard is MA.
If Brown-R wins the 2013 Special Election. -his Democratic challenger is likely to be Patrick-D. (Tossup/Lean Democratic).
If either Markey-D or Capuano-D wins the 2013 Special Election- They are strongly favored to win again in 2014. 50D
Republican incumbents- Sessions(R-AL),Risch(R-ID),Roberts(R-KS),Johanns(R-NE),Inhofe(R-OK),Scott(R-SC),Alexander(R-TN),Cornyn(R-TX), and Enzi(R-WY) are running again and are strongly favored to win re-election. 42R
Republican incumbents- Chambliss(R-GA),Collins(R-ME),and Graham(R-SC) are facing opposition in the GOP primary. Republicans will hold onto GA and SC if the Tea Party GOP candidate wins the GOP nomination. 44R
Republican incumbent- McConnell(R-KY) will face tough opposition in the November General Election but will win re-election. 45R
OPEN or Potential OPEN Republican held seat.
Republicans are favored to win MS(Cochran/Harper-R) 46R

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 30, 2012, 01:50 PM

30. 2014 US Senate Election

1)AL(Sessions-R)Solid Republican 32R
2)AK(Begich-D)Tossup Republican (Treadwell-R) 33R
3)AR(Pryor-D)Lean Democratic 35D
4)CO(Udall-D)Lean Democratic 36D
5)DE(Coons-D)Solid Democratic 37D
6)GA(Chambliss-R)Likely Republican 34R
7)HI(Schatz-D)Likely Democratic 38D
8)ID(Risch-R)Solid Republican 35R
9)IL(Durbin-D)Solid Democratic 39D
10)IA(Harkin-D)Likely Democratic 40D
11)KS(Roberts-R)Solid Republican 36R
12)KY(McConnell-R)Likely Republican 37R
13)LA(Landrieu-D)Lean Democratic 41D
14)ME(Collins-R)Likely Republican 38R
15)MA(Markey-D)Solid Democratic 42D if Brown-R wins the 2013 Special(Tossup Democratic)
16)MI(Levin-D)Solid Democratic 43D Levin-D runs again.
17)MN(Franken-D)Lean Democratic 44D
18)MS(Cochran-R)Solid Republican 39R
19)MT(Baucus-D)Likely Democratic 45D
20)NE(Johanns-R)Solid Republican 40R
21)NH(Shaheen-D)Lean Democratic 46D
22)NJ(Lautenberg-D)Likely Democratic(Booker-D)47D
23)NM(Udall-D)Solid Democratic 48D
24)NC(Hagan-D)Lean Democratic 49D
25)OK(Inhofe-R)Solid Republican 41R
26)OR(Merkley-D)Lean Democratic 50D
27)RI(Reed-D)Solid Democratic 51D
28)SC(Graham-R)Solid Republican 42R
29)SC(Scott-R)Solid Republican 43R
30)SD(Johnson-D)Tossup Republican (Rounds-R)44R
31)TN(Alexander-R)Solid Republican 45R
32)TX(Cornyn-R)Solid Republican 46R
33)VA(Warner-D)Solid Democratic 52D
34)WV(Rockefeller-D)Tossup Republican (Capito-R)47R
35)WY(Enzi-R)Solid Republican 48R
Republican pick up AK,SD,and WV.
Republicans could pick up MA,MI,and NJ in 2013/2014 but lose it in November 2014. Suppose Lautenberg-NJ or Levin-MI are unable to complete their term. The interim Republican replacements loses in the November General Election.
Republicans need to win AR,LA,and NC
CO,IA,MN,MT,NH,and OR are competitive -But Democrats are favored to win.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #30)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 03:37 PM

36. Rockefeller will win comfortably if he doesn't retire.

He's been re-elected three times with margins over 25%. Capito would be his toughest challenger, but she won't run against him. She's smart enough not to go up against an incumbent with a record like that. If Rockefeller retires, she might well run, and, if so, will probably would be favored. If he doesn't retire John Raese will probably buy the nomination and extend his losing streak to five.

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Response to bornskeptic (Reply #36)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 04:47 PM

37. Capito is running for the US Senate.

Rockefeller won re-election by a landslide margin in 2002 and 2008 when WV became a Republican state. (Bush,McCain,and Romney)
Rockefeller could defeat Capito by reminding WV voters that they will be losing a total of 80 years of seniority within the last 4 years. Death of Byrd in 2010 after 50 years and defeat of Rockefeller after 30 years. Manchin and Capito are in their 60's. Both are likely to serve a maximum of 4 terms.
If Capito wanted to be a US Senator- she was better off running in 2010-when Manchin was Governor.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Dec 30, 2012, 10:57 PM

31. I'm glad someone is paying attention to 2014 as it will be important

Maybe people can stop blathering about the 2016 election and actually help take back the House and strengthen our numbers in the Senate. There will only be a handful of Senate seats that are toss-ups and we need to focus on those. If there aren't top notch candidates in a state we need to find some.

My state, Oregon is covered. Merkley will kick ass.

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #31)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 07:59 AM

33. 2014 and 2016 US Senate Elections.

2016- Democrats will pick up
FL(Rubio-R) Crist-D or Sink-D whoever does run for Governor in 2014 will be running for the US Senate in 2016.
IL(Kirk-R) after Michelle-D,Madigan-D, and Emanuel, Democratic candidates are Bustos or Foster.
MO(Blunt-R) Nixon-D
WI(Johnson-R) Kind-D
2014- Democrats will lose
AK(Begich-D) Treadwell-R
SD(Johnson-D) Rounds-R
WV(Rockefeller-D) Capito-R
2018- Democratic incumbents such as
IN(Donnelly-D)
ND(Heitkamp-D)
are going to be vulnerable.
McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,Brown-OH,Casey-PA,and Baldwin-WI will end up surviving.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #33)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 08:46 AM

34. I'm not as worried about 2016 Senate race yet

But I think we can pull some upsets in 2014 if we make good moves like we did this year.

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Response to davidpdx (Reply #34)

Mon Dec 31, 2012, 12:46 PM

35. 2014 upsets for Democrats is

Begich-AK winning re-election against a top tier non controversial GOP opponent.
SD(Rounds-R losing to Herseth-D)
WV(Capito-R losing to Tenent-D)
Other vulnerable Democratic held seats in 2014 are AR,LA,and NC but I am betting on Pryor,Landrieu,and Hagan winning re-election. CO,IA,MI,MN,MT,NH,and OR are potentially competive but Democrats are strongly favored to win those seats.
In HI Special (Schatz or Hanabusa destroys Lingle or Djou)
Democrats will win MA(Markey-D)-Solid Democratic or MA(Brown-R)-Lean Democratic (Patrick-D) or Tossup Democratic(Ortiz-D)
NJ-suppose Lautenberg is unable to complete his term and Christie needs to appoint an interim replacement, Booker will defeat Christies hand picked candidate.
Vulnerable GOP seats are KY(McConnell-R)- I prefer to see him lose to Ashley Judd than Crit Luallen or Allison Grimes.
ME(Collins-R loses in the primary)

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