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Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:39 PM

Here they go again - GOP planning on rigging electoral college by chagning winner take all

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/12/07/gop_proposes_changes_to_electoral_vote_allocation.html

Remember when they attempted this in California in late 2007...But it severely backfired and the idea was scrapped....Notice how they never attempt to split electoral votes in red states..

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Reply Here they go again - GOP planning on rigging electoral college by chagning winner take all (Original post)
Hawaii Hiker Dec 2012 OP
budkin Dec 2012 #1
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #2
Skink Dec 2012 #3
happyslug Dec 2012 #4

Response to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:58 PM

1. Won't happen

They are wasting their time.

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Response to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 03:58 PM

2. This was first practiced by the conservatives of their day.

 

The Federalists did back room dealing to rig the electoral college when they had become a permanent regional minority party after the election of 1800. The height of their electoral college rigging was the election of 1808. It had some effect, but ultimately it sealed the deal of their demise, especially after they opposed pretty much everything to do with the Madison administration and threatened to see the Northeast secede from the Union.

These were the ultraconservatives of the early 19th century.

Is any of this sounding familiar?

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

-- George Santayana

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Response to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 05:44 PM

3. They should use a same day 50 state popular vote for the nomination

Then maybe there would be some interest in the party.

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Response to Hawaii Hiker (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 06:15 PM

4. Lets look at how this MAY work out

Romney won the States the GOP expect to hold (With the Exception of North Carolina).

Obama won the Democratic States and the "Up for grabs states". If the GOP only does this change on Democratic States lets look at how 2012 would have come out.

Romney would have won the states he did win, thus 206 Electoral votes, but lets look at the states that went for Obama:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Lets go West to East:

Washington, has 12 (10 Congressional seats, two Senators) electoral votes, Romney would have won 4 of them.

Oregon has 7 Votes but only one leading GOP

California has 55 but 16 possible GOP districts (the cite below say 15, but two districts lead GOP but are held by a Democrat, one district leans Democratic but is held by a Republican).

Nevada has 6 votes, but two districts leaning GOP

Colorado has 9 Votes, but 4 districts leaning GOp

New Mexico 5 Votes, with one district leaning GOP

Thus before we even get to the Mississippi river, Obama would have lost 34 votes out of the 332 votes he won in 2012 (i.e. 298 votes for Obama, 240 Votes for Romney).

Minnesota has 10 votes with 5 districts leaning GOP (two held by Democrats)

Iowa has 6 votes, with two districts leaning GOP

Wisconsin has 10 votes, with four district leaning GOP

Illinois 20 votes, with four districts leaning GOP (and one Democratic leaning district held by a Republican)

Michigan has 16 votes, with 10 district leaning GOP.

Ohio has 18 Votes, with 12 districts leaning GOP.

Total WEST of Pennsylvania, is thus before you even get to the North East States, you have enough additional GOP votes from GOP districts to give the election to the GOP, and additional loss of 37 votes, Obama votes are reduced to 261 votes, Romney gets 277 votes and the Presidency.

Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, with 13 GOP leaning Districts.

New York has 29 votes, with 7 GOP leaning Districts

Maryland has 10 Votes, but just one for the GOP

Virginia has 13 votes, Eight district for the GOP

New Jersey has 14 votes, Seven districts lean GOP

Thus you have 36 additional GOP votes from the Mid-Atlantic States, for a total of 225 left for Obama, and 313 for Romney.

Florida has 29 votes, but 17 district lean GOP.

That would have left Obama with 208 votes, and Romney for 330.

DC has three votes, but no way any of these votes will be GOP
Hawaii has four votes, none lean GOP.

If a Democrat is able to win North Carolina and its 15 additional electoral votes, the Democrat would only get 5 of the 15 votes, for 10 districts are GOP leaning. (Democrat 213 vs GOP 325).

New England has a total of 28 votes, none for the GOP, thus the 2012 Election (without North Carolina) would have been Obama 208, Romney 330, if Obama would have won North Carolina, Obama 213, to Romney's 325.


New England Electrical votes and lack of ANY GOP leaning districts:
Connecticut has seven votes, none are going GOP,
Rhode Island has four votes none are going GOP
Massachusetts has 11 votes, none for the GOP
Vermont has three votes, like DC none of these votes are going to the GOP
New Hampshire has 4 votes, none are going GOP
Maine has four votes, none for the GOP

Notice the total votes would NOT have changed, just the Total Electoral votes.

In Reverse, Obama would have won 12 additional votes from Texas,'
One vote from Utah
Two Votes from Tennessee
One vote from South Carolina
One vote from Nevada
Two votes from Missouri
One vote from Mississippi
One vote from Louisiana
One vote from Kentucky
two Votes from Indiana
Five votes from Georgia
Three Votes from Arizona
One vote from Alabama
Total Votes: 21 votes

This is due to a good bit of Gerry mandering to get more GOP leaning Congressional districts AND the affect of counting the Senators. One the states with only one Representative. Five lean GOP (Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana) and three lean Democratic (DC, Delaware and Vermont, please note DC's population is less then any state EXCEPT Wyoming).

Thus 24 states lean Democratic (25 if you count DC) and 26 states lean GOP, But if you look at the top ten states in population, Seven of the ten are Democratic, 13 out of the top 20 are Democratic. The GOP dominates the electoral collage due to they overwhelming control over that middle 30 states (17 of that 30 are GOP controlled). That the Democrats control the majority of the 10 smallest states do NOT compenstate for the overwhemoing control by the GOP of the middel 30 states.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population

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