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Sat Dec 1, 2012, 11:08 AM

Nominate Jeb Bush or Bobby Jindal. It doesn't matter: The Electoral College now favors the Democrats

Do Democrats have a permanent Electoral College advantage?

Nominate Jeb Bush or Bobby Jindal. It doesn't matter: The Electoral College now favors the Democrats

BY JONATHAN BERNSTEIN


Have the Democrats opened up a real Electoral College advantage over the Republicans?

I’m not talking about the illusion of an advantage that comes with winning consecutive elections. That might be the result of a streak in which the party is helped by favorable fundamentals, or it can be, as with Democratic majorities in the New Deal era, simply part of a national advantage. In either case, a party might win the same states every time, but — as Republicans discovered in 1992 — when those favorable conditions end, the apparent electoral “lock” disappears, too.

No, I’m talking about an Electoral College edge above and beyond the national vote. That’s not defined by which states went for which candidate; it’s found by looking at what would have happened in the Electoral College if an election had been tied in the national vote. To calculate it, assume uniform swing – that is, if swing state Ohio moves toward the Democrats, then liberal Vermont and conservative Utah will also move toward the Democrats by the same amount. In reality, the states don’t swing quite that equally, but they’re very close to it.

Usually, Electoral College advantages have been very small, and they flip back and forth between the parties – during the 2000 election, when George W. Bush wound up winning because of a very slim Electoral College advantage, polls throughout most of the contest actually showed a slight Electoral College edge for Al Gore. However, in the last two election cycles, Democrats have suddenly enjoyed a substantial bias in their favor.

In 2008, Barack Obama won the national vote by 7.3 percentage points; had John McCain improved in every state by exactly that much, Obama still would have prevailed in the Electoral College, with Colorado putting him over the top. The Democrats carried the Rocky Mountain state by 9 points, so the shift would still have given Obama the win – with 1.7 percentage points to spare. This year, Colorado was once again the tipping-point state, based on returns counted so far, and the Democratic edge in the Electoral College is 1.8 points.

Continue reading:
http://www.salon.com/2012/12/01/do_democrats_have_a_permanent_electoral_college_advantage/

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Reply Nominate Jeb Bush or Bobby Jindal. It doesn't matter: The Electoral College now favors the Democrats (Original post)
DonViejo Dec 2012 OP
frazzled Dec 2012 #1
otohara Dec 2012 #2
Adenoid_Hynkel Dec 2012 #3
RomneyLies Dec 2012 #4
mzteaze Dec 2012 #5
yortsed snacilbuper Dec 2012 #6
Jamaal510 Dec 2012 #7

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sat Dec 1, 2012, 11:25 AM

1. Not if enough states decide to split their EC votes

Currently, Maine and Nebraska allot their votes according to the popular vote in the state. I assure you that Republicans will be gunning for this, in specifically calculated states.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sat Dec 1, 2012, 02:40 PM

2. Colorado Ain't Never Going Back to Red

I'd like to thank the GOP, especially Jan Brewer, Willard White Romney and others for showing their true colors in regards to minorities of the Hispanic origin.


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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sat Dec 1, 2012, 07:33 PM

3. Jindal would be a disaster

Besides being a massive, easy-to-make-fun-of dork, the exorcist jokes would write themselves and brand him a freak and a weirdo.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sat Dec 1, 2012, 07:53 PM

4. Bush would be hteir best hope, and even that will be a longshot.

 

The Southern strategy kept 'em alive for several decades, but in the end it will be the death of 'em.

I find this sad as a two party system with real compromise is best for the country.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sun Dec 2, 2012, 01:18 AM

5. Not sure how...

folks expect Jindal to be a contender when he has MORE of a birth issue than Obama.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sun Dec 2, 2012, 02:17 AM

6. jeb bu$h reminds everybody of,

dubya!

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Sun Dec 2, 2012, 03:41 AM

7. Good luck getting the wingnuts to come to the polls for Jindal.

Most of them probably think that he's a Muslim, too. Nominating him would be political suicide for the GOP.

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