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Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:43 AM

Turns out Romney's internal polls needed the unskewing


by Jed Lewison

If Mitt Romney's campaign team had just read Daily Kos, they would have known they were about to lose, but instead they listened to their own pollster's internal numbers—numbers that turned out to be hilariously wrong.

In an exclusive to The New Republic, a Romney aide has provided the campaign’s final internal polling numbers for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which the aide obtained from the campaign’s chief pollster, Neil Newhouse. Newhouse himself then discussed the numbers with TNR.

The numbers include internal polls conducted on Saturday, November 3, and Sunday, November 4, for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

Here's what the numbers showed:

Colorado: Romney +2.5 (actual: Obama +5)
Iowa: tie (actual: Obama +6)
Minnesota: Obama +4 (actual: Obama +8)
New Hampshire: Romney +3.5 (actual: Obama +6)
Pennsylvania: Obama +3 (actual: Obama +5)
Wisconsin: Obama +4 (actual: Obama +7)

So Romneyland's internal polling—which undoubtedly cost them hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars—only picked the correct winner in three of those six states. And two of those three weren't actual tossup states, so of the four actual battleground states in the list (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin), Romney's polling only got Wisconsin right.

And if you just look at the margins, the polling was at least as terrible: these polls were skewed in Romney's direction by an average of more than five points each. That's just abysmal, especially given the sheer tonnage of public data showing Romney's numbers were wrong. Ten minutes on Google would have been more valuable than these polls—and it would have been free.

Combine these numbers with the reports that Romney's internal polling also showed he was going to win Virginia and Florida, and it's not hard to imagine how shocked Romney must have been when he lost. It turns out he really was trapped inside a bubble, living in a world completely disconnected from reality. And to borrow one of his favorite phrases: he really did build that.

-30-

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/30/1165926/-Turns-out-Romney-s-internal-polls-needed-the-unskewing

Complete post made with permission

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Reply Turns out Romney's internal polls needed the unskewing (Original post)
DonViejo Nov 2012 OP
truebrit71 Nov 2012 #1
mzteaze Nov 2012 #2
1StrongBlackMan Nov 2012 #3
Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2012 #4
BlueStreak Nov 2012 #6
BlueStreak Nov 2012 #5
Happyhippychick Nov 2012 #7
Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #8
BlueStreak Nov 2012 #10
bigdarryl Nov 2012 #9

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:47 AM

1. Couldn't have happened to a nicer pillock...

...I love the fact that he lost due to his own hubris...he surrounded himself with 'Yes men' and then acted all surprised when reality kicked him in the balls...Love it!!

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:52 AM

2. Hehe

now waiting on the "Game Change" 2.0 book to detail the interworkings of a disastrous campaign by a so-called "brilliant" CEO.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:59 AM

3. But what many don't seem to understand is ...

If Mitt Romney's campaign team had just read Daily Kos, they would have known they were about to lose, but instead they listened to their own pollster's internal numbers—numbers that turned out to be hilariously wrong.


The romney campaign didn't care whether their numbers were correct because (imo) the campaign wasn't about winning the election ... sure, for them it would have been nice, but ... it was a marketing campaign designed for the sole purpose of separating conservatives from their money - a large portion of which went directly into the candidate's and his top campaign official's pockets.

Some enterprising journalist should do a piece tracing the romney campaigns fund-raising efforts and their ad buys in the final week prior to the election. Then, explore top campaign officials' compensation, as a percentage of fund-raising. (I think I heard/read that one top campaign official ... the guy that came out after the election talking that 'we lost because of the gifts' crap ... was paid several millions of dollars)

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 11:12 AM

4. Good point ! ..assuming he knew he was going to lose. Only those close to

him probably know for sure. Great idea to trace the ad money

Assuming he didn't know and that he was shocked....If this is true, it tells you something very important about this man. That (1) His staff was afraid to tell him the truth (Like: "Our internals are WAY out of line with other polls, so don't get excited."), and (2) No one in his immediate family was bright enough to look at the other polls and if they did, were afraid to tell him.

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 12:02 PM

6. Did the campaign end with a surplus?

I am betting they did, although with Romney at the helm, that is probably pretty well hidden.

In any case, he can keep the surplus for himself. Theoretically the balance has to be used for political campaigns, but it would be very easy for Romney to sham corporations that he would pay "political consulting fees" to until the surplus is wiped out. And of course, the only shareholders would be Mitt and Anne.

This stuff is just too easy. Romney could do that in his sleep.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 11:59 AM

5. What did their polls say about Ohio?

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 03:49 PM

7. Romney +a brazillion

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 04:45 PM

8. I don't know. There was a rumor floating around CNN on election night that said his internals...

...put him down 5. So, if that's true, and you plug it in with these internals, he still loses the election, albeit by a very narrow margin (in fact, Obama would've won 271-261, depending on how Iowa turned out, so, not near the mandate, but the end result being the same ... maybe with Romney winning the popular vote).

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 05:43 PM

10. That feels right to me

I think Romney expected to lose Ohio. He made some last minute moves (trying to get WI and PA) that indicate he thought OH was lost.

But then if they accepted OH was lost, they must have put an extraordinary amount of blind hope into those internal polls, because basically they have to sweep everything else.

This irrational confidence is what keeps pointing back to a fix in the works for Ohio. I certainly hope there will be a real investigation into that.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 05:26 PM

9. Romney had NO CHANCE of winning against Obama the election was over before it started

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