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Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:04 AM

Dems gained 8 House seats overall--201 total

Democrats Win Final Outstanding House Race
Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) finally won his congressional race, "earning a razor-thin victory over his Republican challenger after a machine recount produced hardly any change in the margin," the AP reports.

The 113th Congress will be represented by 201 Democrats and 234 Republicans. Democrats entered the 2012 elections holding 190 House seats -- but due to vacancies in three Democrat-held seats, they gained eight seats overall.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/29/democrats_win_final_outstanding_house_race.html

I believe that had redistricting not been so detrimental to democrats that the Dems would have won back the house. As it is, the Dems did better than predicted. Many 'pundits' thought they would win only 2-3 House seats. We also got rid of some really nauseating tea-party scum.

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Reply Dems gained 8 House seats overall--201 total (Original post)
WI_DEM Nov 2012 OP
WI_DEM Nov 2012 #1
Jeff In Milwaukee Nov 2012 #2
NewJeffCT Nov 2012 #3
Jeff In Milwaukee Nov 2012 #10
onehandle Nov 2012 #5
Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #6
Jeff In Milwaukee Nov 2012 #11
Panasonic Nov 2012 #16
Jeff In Milwaukee Nov 2012 #17
NewJeffCT Nov 2012 #12
onehandle Nov 2012 #14
NewJeffCT Nov 2012 #15
Cosmocat Nov 2012 #13
muriel_volestrangler Nov 2012 #18
NewJeffCT Nov 2012 #4
flying-skeleton Nov 2012 #7
tabbycat31 Nov 2012 #8
muriel_volestrangler Nov 2012 #19
GreenTea Nov 2012 #9
trueblue2007 Nov 2012 #20

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:07 AM

1. So the magic number for 2014 is 17--to get a very narrow

majority of 218-217

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:13 AM

2. A narrow majority works....

The Speaker and key committee chairs determine what legislation makes it to the floor for a vote. Those 33 attempts last year in the House to repeal Obamacare? There won't be ONE under a Democratic House.

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Response to Jeff In Milwaukee (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:15 AM

3. 33 attempts to repeal

you mean 33 additional times the GOP wasted taxpayer time & money.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 08:34 AM

10. That would be EXACTLY what I mean...

And I don't even know how many attempts to ban abortion were passed in the House only to never be brought to the light of day in the Senate.

Most Dysfunctional Congress Ever.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:18 AM

5. Sorry to rain on your parade, but it's pretty unlikely.

The President's coattails gave us this small gain.

Between gerrymandering, lazy voters, and Citizen's United, I predict a loss of seats in 2014.

This is the closest thing to Rove's 'Permanent Republican Majority' fantasy.

It will be broken eventually, but I think it will take 2 or 3 election cycles, minimum.

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Response to onehandle (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 12:08 PM

6. Yes, low voter turnout will likely cost the Dems, but redistricting will have a lasting impact even

if the Dems surprisingly do well in 2014. It's going to take several election cycles--say, 2020 when redistricting occurs again--to undo the damage the Republicans did.

We are paying a 10-year price for failing to show up in 2010. The Republican landslide in 2010 hurt us in many more ways than just the fact the we lost the House. It gave the Republicans dominance in 30 of the 50 governorships and over 1/2 of the state legislatures. We need to work on state level offices and run better Democrats at the local and state level.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 08:39 AM

11. Don't discount the effect of Republican primaries...

and batshit crazy third-party candidates. If the Republican establishment is able to retake the wheel, the Tea Partiers will run as independents against them and split the vote.

That wishful thinking aside, we really need to win control of state assemblies across the country.

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Response to Jeff In Milwaukee (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:24 AM

16. Colorado retook the House and has a majority - first bill to be introduced: marriage equality

 

Since both Legislatures are Democratic controlled, and Gov is a Dem, this has an excellent chance of recognizing marriage equality as law, and a penance for our Amendment 2 mistakes.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #16)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 11:45 AM

17. That's good to hear...

Wisconsin is once again under complete Republican control, and they're going the opposite direction. The Governor wants to eliminate same-day voting registration (which has been in effect in Wisconsin for nearly forty years) and the Tea Party wants MORE restrictions on abortion.

Gotta do more at the state level, we just gotta.

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Response to onehandle (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 08:44 AM

12. The party of the president typically loses seats in midterm elections

Bush in 2002 was a rare exception because of the media driven patriotism frenzy. However, 2006 certainly made up for that.

But, I think if the economy does actually rebound in 2013 and we get solid growth numbers, which will both improve employment and drop the deficit (because more people are paying taxes), Democrats do have a chance to gain seats. Of course, that's a big "if"

The problem is, if my scenario does play out, maybe Democrats pick up 20-25 seats and now have a slim majority... there are still going to be Blue Dogs/DLC types that will often side with Republics on anything slightly controversial.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 09:56 AM

14. The mid-terms are 10% state of the nation, 90% about turnout.

Mostly older whiter folks are the ones who turn out. Never good for us any more.

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Response to onehandle (Reply #14)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 10:22 AM

15. True, but

if the economy is doing better, more people will turn out.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 09:01 AM

13. Pennsylvania - republicans 13 house seats, democrats 5

with about an 800,000 overall advantage in registered Ds, and the democratic candidates getting 2% more of the overall vote, the President winning the state by 5.5 % and Casey beating Smith in the senate race by an even larger margin.

You can't make this shit up

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 12:32 PM

18. Using the figures in this Google docs spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHZCbzJocGtxYkR6OTdZbzZwRUFvS3c#gid=0

(which is not the final totals for every seat, but it's the only overall table for all House seats I've seen), and sorting by the Democratic share (which is calculated as Dem/(Dem+Repub) , ie not counting 3rd parties), you'd need to increase the Dem vote by 3.37%, ie win all the seats that had a Dem vote of 46.63% or more this time.

Extra bonus: Michele Bachmann is one of the most vulnerable - her opponent got 49.41% of the vote.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 11:16 AM

4. Did the Senate race in AZ ever resolve itself?

or, is that headed to lawsuits?

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 01:17 PM

7. Yeah but the two heads of the snake remain .....

Bachmann & Cantor !!

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Response to flying-skeleton (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 01:29 PM

8. typically Congresscritters like Bachmann and Cantor get very safe districts

And some of those districts, Democrat is a four letter word.

I hate those two as much as the next person on DU does but I think the national party is better off targeting swing districts where the Democrat has a good chance of winning.

Besides, those two raise a ton of $$ for the Democrats--- people donate whenever one of them opens their mouth.

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 12:40 PM

19. Bachmann was in a marginal district this time - she got 50.47% of the vote

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/ENR/Results/CongressionalResults/1?id=561
Republican MICHELE BACHMANN 179240 50.47%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor JIM GRAVES 174944 49.26%
Write-In WRITE-IN** 969 0.27%

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 08:55 PM

9. They knocked out 11 teabagger in the process gaining 11 seats 201 seats from 190

along with three dem seats that brought them back to 190 then they took eleven more seats...

Politicalwire got their math wrong....

Dems win three of their own seats due to vacancies (Dem seats they had before when they had 190 and yes they took those three seats to give them 190 which would still take them to 190).....but then they won eleven more seat from republicans to take them from where they were before at 190 to 201 which is the final tally.

If you want I can name all eleven seats they took from the republicans.

No matter how you look at it from 190 to 201 is an eleven seat gain!!

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Nov 30, 2012, 03:38 PM

20. YES!!!! We also got rid of some really nauseating tea-party scum.

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