2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDems gained 8 House seats overall--201 total
Democrats Win Final Outstanding House Race
Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) finally won his congressional race, "earning a razor-thin victory over his Republican challenger after a machine recount produced hardly any change in the margin," the AP reports.
The 113th Congress will be represented by 201 Democrats and 234 Republicans. Democrats entered the 2012 elections holding 190 House seats -- but due to vacancies in three Democrat-held seats, they gained eight seats overall.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/29/democrats_win_final_outstanding_house_race.html
I believe that had redistricting not been so detrimental to democrats that the Dems would have won back the house. As it is, the Dems did better than predicted. Many 'pundits' thought they would win only 2-3 House seats. We also got rid of some really nauseating tea-party scum.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)majority of 218-217
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)The Speaker and key committee chairs determine what legislation makes it to the floor for a vote. Those 33 attempts last year in the House to repeal Obamacare? There won't be ONE under a Democratic House.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)you mean 33 additional times the GOP wasted taxpayer time & money.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)And I don't even know how many attempts to ban abortion were passed in the House only to never be brought to the light of day in the Senate.
Most Dysfunctional Congress Ever.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)The President's coattails gave us this small gain.
Between gerrymandering, lazy voters, and Citizen's United, I predict a loss of seats in 2014.
This is the closest thing to Rove's 'Permanent Republican Majority' fantasy.
It will be broken eventually, but I think it will take 2 or 3 election cycles, minimum.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)if the Dems surprisingly do well in 2014. It's going to take several election cycles--say, 2020 when redistricting occurs again--to undo the damage the Republicans did.
We are paying a 10-year price for failing to show up in 2010. The Republican landslide in 2010 hurt us in many more ways than just the fact the we lost the House. It gave the Republicans dominance in 30 of the 50 governorships and over 1/2 of the state legislatures. We need to work on state level offices and run better Democrats at the local and state level.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)and batshit crazy third-party candidates. If the Republican establishment is able to retake the wheel, the Tea Partiers will run as independents against them and split the vote.
That wishful thinking aside, we really need to win control of state assemblies across the country.
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)Since both Legislatures are Democratic controlled, and Gov is a Dem, this has an excellent chance of recognizing marriage equality as law, and a penance for our Amendment 2 mistakes.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)Wisconsin is once again under complete Republican control, and they're going the opposite direction. The Governor wants to eliminate same-day voting registration (which has been in effect in Wisconsin for nearly forty years) and the Tea Party wants MORE restrictions on abortion.
Gotta do more at the state level, we just gotta.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)Bush in 2002 was a rare exception because of the media driven patriotism frenzy. However, 2006 certainly made up for that.
But, I think if the economy does actually rebound in 2013 and we get solid growth numbers, which will both improve employment and drop the deficit (because more people are paying taxes), Democrats do have a chance to gain seats. Of course, that's a big "if"
The problem is, if my scenario does play out, maybe Democrats pick up 20-25 seats and now have a slim majority... there are still going to be Blue Dogs/DLC types that will often side with Republics on anything slightly controversial.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Mostly older whiter folks are the ones who turn out. Never good for us any more.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)if the economy is doing better, more people will turn out.
Cosmocat
(14,562 posts)with about an 800,000 overall advantage in registered Ds, and the democratic candidates getting 2% more of the overall vote, the President winning the state by 5.5 % and Casey beating Smith in the senate race by an even larger margin.
You can't make this shit up
muriel_volestrangler
(101,295 posts)(which is not the final totals for every seat, but it's the only overall table for all House seats I've seen), and sorting by the Democratic share (which is calculated as Dem/(Dem+Repub) , ie not counting 3rd parties), you'd need to increase the Dem vote by 3.37%, ie win all the seats that had a Dem vote of 46.63% or more this time.
Extra bonus: Michele Bachmann is one of the most vulnerable - her opponent got 49.41% of the vote.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)or, is that headed to lawsuits?
flying-skeleton
(696 posts)Bachmann & Cantor !!
tabbycat31
(6,336 posts)And some of those districts, Democrat is a four letter word.
I hate those two as much as the next person on DU does but I think the national party is better off targeting swing districts where the Democrat has a good chance of winning.
Besides, those two raise a ton of $$ for the Democrats--- people donate whenever one of them opens their mouth.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,295 posts)Republican MICHELE BACHMANN 179240 50.47%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor JIM GRAVES 174944 49.26%
Write-In WRITE-IN** 969 0.27%
GreenTea
(5,154 posts)along with three dem seats that brought them back to 190 then they took eleven more seats...
Politicalwire got their math wrong....
Dems win three of their own seats due to vacancies (Dem seats they had before when they had 190 and yes they took those three seats to give them 190 which would still take them to 190).....but then they won eleven more seat from republicans to take them from where they were before at 190 to 201 which is the final tally.
If you want I can name all eleven seats they took from the republicans.
No matter how you look at it from 190 to 201 is an eleven seat gain!!