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Kablooie

(18,612 posts)
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 08:45 PM Oct 2016

I feel uneasy about everyone's confident expectation that Hillary will win.

I know all the polls show that Trump's campaign is a major train wreck and Hillary has stratospheric odds of winning.
I accept all that.

But I still feel uneasy.
I guess it's because counting your chickens before they hatch is always a risky endeavor and my superstitious side tells me that the fates love to crash down on people who are too confident about the future. And remember there are still odds, not 100% certainty.

There is a theory that in key red states, if Democrats feel too confident of a win, many will not bother to vote because they assume their vote isn't needed.
Vice versa - Trump supporters could get out in droves as a last gasp attempt to try and push him over the top.
These two factors together could create an unexpected result in spite of all the polls.

Add in the Trump voting monitors that could prevent some people from voting. Sure it's illegal and people could be arrested for doing this but they won't be arrested until after they've stopped people from voting and therefore achieved their goal.

I don't really expect all this to happen to the extent that it changes the result but I still can't help feeling uneasy about all this whooping and cheering and proclaiming to the world that Hillary already has the election sewn up.

Hubris is a bitch.

22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I feel uneasy about everyone's confident expectation that Hillary will win. (Original Post) Kablooie Oct 2016 OP
Duly noted. Maru Kitteh Oct 2016 #1
I think the opposite scenario would happen... ILFightinDem Oct 2016 #2
Yep! There's a reason why Karl Rove made sure that he was on cable news... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2016 #5
I agree with you Dem2 Oct 2016 #3
Don't waste energy "concerning." Go campaign and VOTE. RBInMaine Oct 2016 #17
I agreed with the poster's sentiments Dem2 Oct 2016 #19
I agree Pook99 Oct 2016 #4
Concerned, concerned, concerned, ... WASTE OF ENERGY. Go and CAMPAIGN if you're so "concerned." RBInMaine Oct 2016 #18
sorry you're 'uneasy' bigtree Oct 2016 #6
"Hubris" is a strong word -- so HRC is guilty of excessive pride? I don't think so. And yes anneboleyn Oct 2016 #7
Excessive self-confidence is hubris and I feel there might be a little of this going around. Kablooie Oct 2016 #14
Stop feeling uneasy and GO CAMPAIGN. RBInMaine Oct 2016 #8
Stop feeling uneasy and help GOTV Thrill Oct 2016 #9
Straw man. Nobody here is saying that. emulatorloo Oct 2016 #10
Give me a break budkin Oct 2016 #11
. Grassy Knoll Oct 2016 #12
Democrats are lazy if they think they will win. Dangerrus Oct 2016 #13
All the "smart" people know she's gonna win easily. Follow the money (betting markets) smorkingapple Oct 2016 #15
Just vote MFM008 Oct 2016 #16
Many of us seem to have forgotten the massive sucker punch 2004 delivered to our guts. GreenPartyVoter Oct 2016 #20
I have no expectations any more ever since the 2000 election. Zing Zing Zingbah Oct 2016 #21
The solution to your uneasiness is to get out there and GOTV. MineralMan Oct 2016 #22

ILFightinDem

(56 posts)
2. I think the opposite scenario would happen...
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 08:59 PM
Oct 2016

The more HRC's election is judged 'inevitable', it will *bolster* red state Dems, and depress the corresponding TrumpNuts.

Under normal circumstances, those Dems would feel their vote 'wasted' (really, no vote is wasted, but I digress).
But if the tide is high enough (and more and more polls have her up +10 or more), they'll want to be a part of flipping their state blue.

The inverse holds for the other side - if they think there's no possible way Trump can win, many will stay home - and we need that not just for him, but for the down ballot, as well.

This is a rare opportunity for us - and the more the 'inevitability' factor takes hold, the better it is for us, IMHO.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,852 posts)
5. Yep! There's a reason why Karl Rove made sure that he was on cable news...
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:08 PM
Oct 2016

... on election day in 2004, acting giddy about supposed great news for Dumbya regarding voter turn-out. He wanted to encourage Dumbya voters and discourage Kerry voters.

If I only had doomsayers like Michael Moore in my life, the depression would suck the fighting spirit out of me.

Dem2

(8,166 posts)
3. I agree with you
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:03 PM
Oct 2016

Many of us have witnessed/experienced that depressing feeling after excessively optimistic expectations before an election.

Dem2

(8,166 posts)
19. I agreed with the poster's sentiments
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 11:34 PM
Oct 2016

I'm not a foolish person by nature, your post seems off target/not germane to the topic.

Pook99

(7 posts)
4. I agree
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:05 PM
Oct 2016

What I am most concerned about is over confidence being seen as arrogant with undecided independents, and yes, democrats staying home thinking she's won and there's no reason to get out and vote.

I don't think there's too many people that think it is all wrapped up. It may appear there are, but we all know just how surprising an election can be from past elections. Bookies put Hillary at 95%, but I will still be nervous until I see those states declared blue on Nov. 8th.
Hopefully she takes Florida and I can go to sleep before the west coast tallies up.

 

RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)
18. Concerned, concerned, concerned, ... WASTE OF ENERGY. Go and CAMPAIGN if you're so "concerned."
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 11:09 PM
Oct 2016

bigtree

(85,977 posts)
6. sorry you're 'uneasy'
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:12 PM
Oct 2016

...but I don't believe that amounts to anything positive; nor will worrying yourself to death change anything you've listed as your concern.

I do know that confidence encourages action, pessimism stifles action. We need to stop criticizing folks for feeling good about this election. Imagine the opposite scenario where all that was reported and related was the wringing of hands and a general lack of confidence. What would that say to potential supporters?

anneboleyn

(5,611 posts)
7. "Hubris" is a strong word -- so HRC is guilty of excessive pride? I don't think so. And yes
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:15 PM
Oct 2016

every democrat should vote.

Kablooie

(18,612 posts)
14. Excessive self-confidence is hubris and I feel there might be a little of this going around.
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:44 PM
Oct 2016

Of course hubris in all it's flavors is the cornerstone of Donald Trump and I am not inferring anything like that.

budkin

(6,699 posts)
11. Give me a break
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:20 PM
Oct 2016

No candidate has ever come back from the deficit Trump now faces and it's not going to start with him. It's over.

Dangerrus

(22 posts)
13. Democrats are lazy if they think they will win.
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 09:36 PM
Oct 2016

Show up no matter what poll you read beforehand. There is only one poll that counts.

smorkingapple

(827 posts)
15. All the "smart" people know she's gonna win easily. Follow the money (betting markets)
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 10:09 PM
Oct 2016

The only reason she's not at 100% there is that you'll always have people who place $ on both sides to win a jackpot if the low probability event occurs plus you have the Trumpers who are putting some of their retirement funds into him winning.


Zing Zing Zingbah

(6,496 posts)
21. I have no expectations any more ever since the 2000 election.
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 07:34 AM
Oct 2016

We will just find out what happens and deal with it.

MineralMan

(146,262 posts)
22. The solution to your uneasiness is to get out there and GOTV.
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 09:38 AM
Oct 2016

Contact your local Democratic Party organization and ask how you can help get voters to the polls. They'll find something for you to do right away.

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