Nate Silver: State by State Comparison of Voter Turnout, 2008 vs 2012

[amborin]

California's numbers seem shocking.

[sinkingfeeling]

1. A tad early since Arizona and Florida are still counting ballots.

[gcomeau]

2. California is still counting.

Mail in ballots.

Last update I saw had California estimated at about 81% in.

[Jennicut]

3. The big drops in NY and NJ are understandable

because of Sandy.

[democrattotheend]

11. Alaska makes sense too

Turnout in 2008 was probably up there because of Sarah Palin. Also, it appears they are only 63% done counting.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Up in 8 of 9 battlegrounds

Down just about everywhere else. Another way of saying the Obama team was magnificent.

[SidDithers]

5. Prop 8 in California in 2008 probably drew a lot of idiot voters who stayed home this time...nt

Sid

[amborin]

13. yeah, but there were other fairly galvanizing props on the ballot this time, too eom

[Filibuster Harry]

6. can see ny and nj but ...

california (although as I understand it they are still counting). But how about the declines in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, or even Arizona? Surprised. Didn't think turnout difference was going to be this great.

[democrattotheend]

10. Pennsylvania got more attention in 2008 than in 2012

So maybe that explains it.

Ohio is a little fishy, but note that they have not yet even started counting provisionals. If this analysis compares 2012 to 2008 including provisionals, it is probably a little early.

[geek tragedy]

7. Lots of votes to be counted. nt

[MissMarple]

8. I'd like to see that broken down by affiliation. I think they can do that.

Not how they voted, but if they voted.

[Coyotl]

9. What are the correlations of turnout to voter suppression laws?

[frazzled]

12. A lot depends on important downballot races and ballot questions

and, of course, whether you are in a swing state or not. (Though not all the swing states outperformed 2008).

I know here in Illinois, there were no significant races (other than 4 or so congressional races, but none in populous Cook County) other than the presidency. And Obama was of course very safe here. There wasn't as much incentive to turn out. And oh yeah, those ballots with 58 judicial retention questions tend to put people off. Can we stop that, please? (Every couple years I do all this research to see what judges to kick out, and none of them ever, ever gets kicked out anyway.)

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

14. Good ol' Nevada! The Forest Gump of States!

We may not be a smart state, but we know how to vote...

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I think it's funny Utah actually saw a decline after everyone here said we'd have record turnout.

You know, with a Mormon on the ticket and everything.

[MissMarple]

16. You made me....chuckle.

I have a friend whose Mormon friend doesn't think Willard is a true Mormon. Go figure.