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Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:01 PM

Nate Silver: State by State Comparison of Voter Turnout, 2008 vs 2012




California's numbers seem shocking.

16 replies, 2058 views

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:04 PM

1. A tad early since Arizona and Florida are still counting ballots.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:05 PM

2. California is still counting.

Mail in ballots.

Last update I saw had California estimated at about 81% in.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:11 PM

3. The big drops in NY and NJ are understandable

because of Sandy.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:27 PM

11. Alaska makes sense too

Turnout in 2008 was probably up there because of Sarah Palin. Also, it appears they are only 63% done counting.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:11 PM

4. Up in 8 of 9 battlegrounds

Down just about everywhere else. Another way of saying the Obama team was magnificent.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:22 PM

5. Prop 8 in California in 2008 probably drew a lot of idiot voters who stayed home this time...nt

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:30 PM

13. yeah, but there were other fairly galvanizing props on the ballot this time, too eom

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:22 PM

6. can see ny and nj but ...

california (although as I understand it they are still counting). But how about the declines in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, or even Arizona? Surprised. Didn't think turnout difference was going to be this great.

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Response to Filibuster Harry (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:26 PM

10. Pennsylvania got more attention in 2008 than in 2012

So maybe that explains it.

Ohio is a little fishy, but note that they have not yet even started counting provisionals. If this analysis compares 2012 to 2008 including provisionals, it is probably a little early.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:22 PM

7. Lots of votes to be counted. nt

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:23 PM

8. I'd like to see that broken down by affiliation. I think they can do that.

Not how they voted, but if they voted.

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:26 PM

9. What are the correlations of turnout to voter suppression laws?

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:28 PM

12. A lot depends on important downballot races and ballot questions

and, of course, whether you are in a swing state or not. (Though not all the swing states outperformed 2008).

I know here in Illinois, there were no significant races (other than 4 or so congressional races, but none in populous Cook County) other than the presidency. And Obama was of course very safe here. There wasn't as much incentive to turn out. And oh yeah, those ballots with 58 judicial retention questions tend to put people off. Can we stop that, please? (Every couple years I do all this research to see what judges to kick out, and none of them ever, ever gets kicked out anyway.)

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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:32 PM

14. Good ol' Nevada! The Forest Gump of States!

We may not be a smart state, but we know how to vote...





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Response to amborin (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 02:44 PM

15. I think it's funny Utah actually saw a decline after everyone here said we'd have record turnout.

You know, with a Mormon on the ticket and everything.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 08:19 PM

16. You made me....chuckle.



I have a friend whose Mormon friend doesn't think Willard is a true Mormon. Go figure.

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