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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 11:58 PM

A blue Texas?

"'If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community, he said, 'in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state.'"

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/

28 replies, 2159 views

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
Reply A blue Texas? (Original post)
damnedifIknow Nov 2012 OP
hrmjustin Nov 2012 #1
Bjorn Against Nov 2012 #2
damnedifIknow Nov 2012 #3
steelmania75 Nov 2012 #4
Blue4Texas Nov 2012 #15
courseofhistory Nov 2012 #5
Arugula Latte Nov 2012 #26
budkin Nov 2012 #6
Ter Nov 2012 #19
Rstrstx Nov 2012 #21
Tx4obama Nov 2012 #7
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #14
Blue4Texas Nov 2012 #16
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #17
Blue4Texas Nov 2012 #18
Rstrstx Nov 2012 #20
Left Coast2020 Nov 2012 #8
Rstrstx Nov 2012 #11
ffr Nov 2012 #9
Indpndnt Nov 2012 #10
NCLefty Nov 2012 #13
NCLefty Nov 2012 #12
TexasCPA Nov 2012 #22
AlinPA Nov 2012 #23
dmallind Nov 2012 #24
Rstrstx Nov 2012 #28
ffr Nov 2012 #25
Jamaal510 Nov 2012 #27

Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 11:59 PM

1. A blue Texas would be great!

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:01 AM

2. I suspect Texas will be a swing state in ten years and solidly blue in twenty

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Response to Bjorn Against (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:03 AM

3. The GOP

might as well fold. It's not looking good for them.

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:39 AM

4. If Democrats organize and campaign hard down there with a good candidate in 2016

They could make it competitive in 2016. Dallas County voted 57% Democrat this year....an increased presence there by the party would bump that up to 65%. Houston was dead even. With a very diverse county of 4.1 million people, Democrats could make that too a stronghold of theirs, along with Latinos in San Antonio and Liberals in Austin. The minute Texas is a swing state, the Republican party is done in presidential elections. You have 2 of the 4 largest electoral vote states, New York and California solidly Democrat, and then Texas and Florida swing states? There's going to be a civil war within the party between the business wing of the party, and the extreme religious fundamentalists.

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Response to steelmania75 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 08:57 AM

15. Music to my ears

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:51 AM

5. Nah! Texas is

seceding! Haven't you heard?

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Response to courseofhistory (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 11:08 PM

26. You mean secdeeing!



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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:00 AM

6. I've been in Austin 14 years...

And every year since 2004 it feels just a little bluer each year.

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Response to budkin (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 11:49 AM

19. And the rest gets a little redder

 

Texas is now more red than in 2008. Now, than can be because for all his faults, Romney was an improvement over McCain...

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Response to Ter (Reply #19)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:43 PM

21. That was true for the country as a whole

Obama did about 4 or 5 points worse this time, in line with national numbers. Even in Travis county O's support slipped, though Romney didnt fare much better than McCain

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:21 AM

7. We are more PURPLE now than red...


In both the 2008 and 2012 elections Obama won the majority of our largest cities/counties here in Texas: Austin/Travis, Dallas/Dallas, Houston/Harris, El Paso, San Antonio, etc.

Texas is really more PURPLE now than it is red - and hopefully Texas will be BLUE again before I die




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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 08:13 AM

14. I don't know about that.

Obama's percentage of the vote in TX went down from 43% in '08 to 41% in '12, this despite the Hispanic vote increasing for him nationwide. That he won the big cities isn't really surprising, that's usually the case for Dems anyway, but you guys really need to start getting the Hispanic vote out in TX, or all this talk of it turning into a swing state will just end up being pipe dreams.

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Response to Daniel537 (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 09:06 AM

16. To get involved, who do I call?

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Response to Blue4Texas (Reply #16)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 10:19 AM

17. Good question.

I live in Florida, so i'm not sure. Try contacting your local Democratic Party offices. Its a start.

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Response to Daniel537 (Reply #17)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 11:00 AM

18. Thanks. Will do :)

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Response to Daniel537 (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:00 PM

20. It'll happen

Simple demographic trends all point to it. If the GOP softens their anti-immigration tone it might help but I think the damage has been done. And despite their religion Hispanics aren't "values voters" as a whole. Once the state races tighten then I think you'll start seeing a more concerted effort by the Dems. Nominating a talented competent Hispanic candidate who resonates with the community would certainly help bring voters out of the woodwork.It would also help in AZ

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:33 AM

8. I thought Harris County (Houston) was kinda blue already

I worked at the news station there in 01-02 and I remember it as fairly diverse--or it seemed that way. And am I correct that its Harris County? I also remember Tropical Storm Alison which flooded the Katy freeway. I remember that episode really well.

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Response to Left Coast2020 (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:49 AM

11. The southern part of the state has been a swinger for years

The problem on the statewide level is to overcome so many of those crusty old Repubs that live everywhere but are especially rampant north of a line that roughly runs from the SE corner of New Mexico over to Beaumont. North of Travis and Harris counties there is only one blue county in the state (thank you Dallas!) And boy do they come out in huge numbers in statewide elections and are not going to go down without a fight. But they are eventually going to be overwhelmed by the state's demographics and when it happens the Republicans will either be irrelevant or morphed into something else

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:59 AM

9. Freepers are saying the same thing

TX, GA, MT, & AZ have the distinct possibility of going blue in years to come. Californians spilling over into the western states and non-whites registering to vote and voting in huge numbers.

Representation and the one person, one vote aren't so American when everyone participates apparently.

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Response to ffr (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:16 AM

10. I love that cartoon!

Although, considering the meaning behind it, the pink, green, and puce weird me out just a bit. I'm guessin' the green is for the Zombies? Or, maybe, this guy?

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Response to Indpndnt (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 03:07 AM

13. It's The Great Gazoo from Flintstones (who hails from the faraway planet Zetox).

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 03:05 AM

12. We don't yet know how seVERELY the right will pander to Latinos

... or how many of them will buy into it.

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:33 PM

22. I wish

but there are a bunch rednecks in Fort Worth and neocons north of Dallas County. The Panhandle is solidly Republican too. It is still several years away.

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:40 PM

23. "I'm dreaming of a Blue Texas" . ...............

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 04:00 PM

24. Not much hope for a long long time

Such generic predictions assume facts not in evidence. The Hispanic population in TX has been both high and growing for quite some time and yet the state has become more deeply red over the last few decades - the R win last time was bigger than the last by quite a bit.

Gerrymandering is not a reason for a statewide shellacking either. The sad truth is that Texas, taken as a whole, is deeply conservative. Until Hispanic and other minority groups grow sufficiently to cover the deep double digit R advantage, there's not much chance of a blue Texas.(don't bet on a generational shift either - Romney won the young white vote nationally let alone in TX, and youngsters generally become more likely to vote R over time). Birth rates aren't THAT divergent, and we will need decades for the numbers to make up the delta.

Could the process be expedited? Sure. A charismatic Texas candidate on the national ballot, Hispanic even, would shift a few, but even then I doubt enough for a long time indeed. Who cares if Castro runs and loses by only 7 or 8% instead? The EVs all go red anyway.

I would be surprised if the Dem who can carry TX next is out of school now; perhaps not even born.

I hope I'm wrong.

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Response to dmallind (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 02:31 PM

28. A good read:

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 10:46 PM

25. Money and human resources. That's all it would take.

A proven working winning structure already exists in OFA's GOTV movement. I'd say that any red state and certainly any purple state could be picked up with these two resources. Red state Dems can be activated and sound ready for the task. And if I was on defense as a Republican in one of those states, I'd be worried of such a aggressive move. Even if it didn't succeed in every state, there would be such serious erosion of the seemingly invincible red strength, by the next election cycle there would be no stopping counties and states from tipping blue.

The Freepers are already terrified, particularly in Texas. They're seeing the erosion now and OFA didn't put any effort into the state. They're hoping and praying OFA doesn't act. As they say themselves, 'we lose Texas, you can forget about Ohio, Florida and Virginia.'

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 12:11 AM

27. If TX goes blue, it'll be a rap for the GOP and the wingnut movement.

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