Second terms are notoriously hard. Reagan’s was defined by Iran-Contra, Clinton’s by impeachment and Bush’s by Katrina.
No such nightmare seems to be imminent from this White House, but The New York Times’ Nate Silver could probably start a model to guess what irrelevant, trumped-up “Worse than Watergate!” scandal the GOP will try to impeach the president for. At best, the House GOP and the minority in the Senate will simply obstruct to construct talking points about how long it’s been since a budget passed while setting new records for repealing Obamacare.
Yet, the full implementation of Obamacare is just one way that Obama’s next term is destined to succeed.
The next few months will be one of the most difficult stretches of Obama’s presidency. He needs to make a large debt deal that will likely forestall the sequester spending cuts and ending of the Bush tax cuts for the middle class. If this “grand bargain” looks anything like the last “grand bargain” he almost signed, it will raise the eligibility age for Medicare and include some cuts to Social Security.