Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:21 AM
eridani (40,098 posts)
Math wins huge upset over GOP - are Democrats paying attention?
While the conservative attacks focused on Nate Silver, because his 538 blog at the New York Times is particularly high profile, and some embarrassingly innumerate political pundits joined in as well, Silver's predictions were not the most favourable to Obama, nor did even the conservative Real Clear Politics aggregate map favour Romney - though its "too close to call" state list left the outcome in doubt. In short, it was not Silver or any of the other aggregators whom conservatives were really angered by - it was the state-level polls themselves, which stubbornly persisted in accurately showing that Obama remained ahead in the state-level races he needed to win re-election.
After the election, a number of different people tweeted about a rather obvious connection - how the same people who didn't believe the polls don't believe global warming, either. There's a further correlation here: On the polling side, the supposedly most liberally-biased pollsters actually came closest to hitting the mark, both in the Fordham analysis of national polls and a more sophisticated analysis of state polls by Emory political scientist Drew Linzer at his Votamatic website.
On the global warming side, a new study comparing climate models finds that those predicting the largest climate impacts by 2100 are the most accurate in modelling climate change that's already occurred - specifically, humidity levels related to cloud formation. In short, the reality being denied in both cases is even worse than it first appears, so attempts to "compromise" or give conservatives "the benefit of the doubt" actually lead us further astray (since I first wrote this, David Roberts of Grist has written an excellent comparison of the twin delusions).
But there is more than just a correlation here. There is a common causal factor involved: Conservatives, trusting their guts, have created their own separate reality, with their own authorities, and their reasoning dominated by ideology, where certain sorts of facts simply cannot intrude. Election day was one of those rare moments in which the bubble they live inside collapsed.
Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! You don't know where it's been!
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Math wins huge upset over GOP - are Democrats paying attention? (Original post)
Response to eridani (Original post)
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:43 AM
Coyotl (9,148 posts)
1. Conservatives, trusting their guts, have created their own separate reality, with their own ...
Individuated reality is a mental disorder. Obamacare can fix that