Election Model Update

[Loki Liesmith]

Last edited Wed Sep 21, 2016, 09:59 PM - Edit history (2)

Last Update
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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
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Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 0.676879661359
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 285.7502
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 304

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# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
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Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 0.632426988922
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 283.84
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 285.5
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 288


Estimated National Spread: +3.04, Clinton


Instantaneous Win probability has shown some decline from last update, but given a bad few weeks of polls, I think the hints of recovery today have helped a lot.

No more analysis, somehow someone will accuse me of concern trolling for posting what I think are some positive numbers.

Maybe I'll post some graphics later.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. Have faith

We still have unambiguously better odds than Orange Julius Caesar. Trump has just opened multiple paths to winning he didn't have before.

A good few weeks on the campaign trail for us and we can shut that down again.