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Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:05 PM

 

Nate Silver's analysis: Gallup was worst pollster in 2012 (ARG, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon sucked too)



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

24 replies, 2518 views

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Reply Nate Silver's analysis: Gallup was worst pollster in 2012 (ARG, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon sucked too) (Original post)
Welcome_hubby Nov 2012 OP
Jim__ Nov 2012 #1
Iggy Nov 2012 #2
bushisanidiot Nov 2012 #3
BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #4
Voice for Peace Nov 2012 #10
helpisontheway Nov 2012 #5
WI_DEM Nov 2012 #6
RomneyLies Nov 2012 #7
MadBadger Nov 2012 #18
Welcome_hubby Nov 2012 #14
DCBob Nov 2012 #8
LisaL Nov 2012 #12
Tom Byron Nov 2012 #19
Tom Byron Nov 2012 #22
Tom Byron Nov 2012 #20
Voice for Peace Nov 2012 #9
WonderGrunion Nov 2012 #11
nyquil_man Nov 2012 #15
reflection Nov 2012 #17
Polldancer2012 Nov 2012 #13
nyquil_man Nov 2012 #16
sarcasmo Nov 2012 #21
Tom Byron Nov 2012 #23
davidpdx Nov 2012 #24

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:10 PM

1. It's great to have that documented. Bookmarking for future reference. - n/t

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:12 PM

2. DOES Gallup and the other Dinosaur Pollsters

 

bother polling Hispanics/Latinos? blacks?

Regardless, I didn't put much stock in their proclamations-- along with the lamestream media bobbleheads-- that this was an ULTRA close horse race. it may have been a YEAR ago, when it didn't matter, but there's no way any of these doofs should have been saying this 30 days prior to the election-- and all of them were.

They are weak, little to no credibility going forward.



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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:18 PM

3. Yep!

.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:19 PM

4. Pollster and pundit ineptitude is a major takeaway from this election

Combine it with the triumph of the Obama campaign's data- and analytics driven approach, and you can see the world changing in front of you. Technology has revolutionized many industries and displaced the people within them. I think the same earthquake just hit politics. End of the world as we know it. I feel fine.

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:51 PM

10. exactly, this is the kind of end that makes you feel grand, boys

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:19 PM

5. Worse than Rasmussen and Gravis? That's gotta hurt! Lol nt

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:31 PM

6. I agree more with the Fordem University study that has PPP as #1

they really kicked butt in their polling this year and delivered more polls than anybody else. Though I do agree that Gallup deserves its lowly status.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:38 PM

7. Fordham bases it on national polling

 

Nate bases his on ALL polling.

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Response to RomneyLies (Reply #7)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 04:07 PM

18. Why would Gallup then be in the same boat then?

They dont have any state polls.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #6)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:51 PM

14. Delivering more polls shouldn't give you extra brownie points

 

Just saying. Rasmussen polled a lot, but he sucked and that's the bottom line. PPP polled a lot of elections, too, and it was good but not the best, compared to all other pollsters.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:38 PM

8. Brad Coker/Mason Dixon was dead wrong on Florida..

Remember this one?

"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. "Unless something dramatically changes an October surprise, a major gaffe Romney's going to win Florida. ..they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right," Coker said.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-i-4-voters-back-romney-51-45/1258459

It does appear his polls were cooked. How else could he be that far off?

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Response to DCBob (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:14 PM

12. They were using a very restrictive likely voters model.

Even a couple of CNN polls for FL showed Romney ahead in LV, but Obama was ahead in RV.
Obviously too many actual voters were not considered likely.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 10:38 AM

19. Brad Coker/Mason Dixon

a bombshell of a book is about to come out on Coker's firm, "The Mason-Dixon Lie" there has been a media cover up by Mason Dixon's own clients about them.

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Response to Tom Byron (Reply #19)

Thu Nov 15, 2012, 09:29 AM

22. "The Mason-Dixon Lie" out soon in paperback

Miami Herald, Minneapolis Star Tribune and the Lee Newspapers are exposed in this expose as covering up Mason-Dixon's fraud. Can not wait to read it!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 10:40 AM

20. Brad Coker/Mason Dixon

Coker belongs to Sons of Confederate Vets, he hates Blacks and Obama.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:51 PM

9. Nate Silver's having too much fun

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:12 PM

11. Wait!! Nate forgot Unskewthepolls.com

How accurate were they?

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Response to WonderGrunion (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:12 PM

15. They've given up on unskewing polls. Now they just skew themselves.

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Response to WonderGrunion (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:40 PM

17. I just visited unskewedpolls.com to see what's going on

and they have a poll asking if the election was stolen. Plus a lot of commentary by the assclown that runs the site. Entertaining reading.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:43 PM

13. I think polling is pretty much useless

 

it can't measure who actually goes to the polls

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:16 PM

16. An average of every poll in every state for the last year would have predicted the winner.

In every state.

It's just that simple, folks. Even with all of Rasmussen's BS.

Gallup doesn't matter. They do national polls and there is no national election.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Wed Nov 14, 2012, 11:16 AM

21. Looks like Gallup polled a Republican county.

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 07:24 AM

23. Mason Dixon sucked in 2010

Mason Dixon was awful in 2010 but got a pass from Nate Silver, very suspicious

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Sun Nov 25, 2012, 08:51 AM

24. There were a lot of questions about Gravis Marketing

It seems this pretty much answers them. The margin of error was 2.7 and the bias was 2.7% in favor of Republicans. Nate needs to kick some of these to the curb next time around.

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