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Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:35 AM

I read Romney won Indies nationally by 5%. I think THIS is how he STILL lost nationally:

One thing is that Romney most likely won back conservative leaning indies in red states, some of which switched to Obama in 2008. This may be part of why Indiana and NC went back to the R's again in this election. The red leaning Indies that went back to Romney were in mostly red or red leaning states Obama wouldn't win anyhow, so that had no effect on Obama's electoral win. Obama did win enough moderate and progressive Indies in the swing states to bolster his margins. But most importantly, TeamObama was able to drive up DEM registration and turnout among its key voting blocks of young voters, minorities, single women, etc. to overcome any GOP advantages with Indies and they did very well getting them to the polls.

What do you think? Going forward, of course, it does remain necessary to pull Indies and win at least a thin majority of them if possible. The R's in this election went after Indies very hard, but it wasn't enough for them in the end. Would love to hear your thoughts on this.

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Reply I read Romney won Indies nationally by 5%. I think THIS is how he STILL lost nationally: (Original post)
RBInMaine Nov 2012 OP
melody Nov 2012 #1
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #2
Hokie Nov 2012 #3
lalalu Nov 2012 #4
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #5
lalalu Nov 2012 #7
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #6
lalalu Nov 2012 #9
sweetloukillbot Nov 2012 #10
psychmommy Nov 2012 #12
lalalu Nov 2012 #16
Surya Gayatri Nov 2012 #17
Sukie Nov 2012 #8
lalalu Nov 2012 #11
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #13
quaker bill Nov 2012 #14
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #15
quaker bill Nov 2012 #23
Ataboy35 Nov 2012 #18
CTyankee Nov 2012 #19
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #20
marlakay Nov 2012 #21
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #22

Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:41 AM

1. Palin swayed some of them in 2008

I think there's a decisive number of conservative men who are more sexist than racist. Given McCain's age and health, they were terrified that Palin might become President, so they voted for Obama.

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Response to melody (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:45 AM

2. Ya, in states like MO, MT, NC,& IN, some red leaning Indies were willing to vote Obama last time.

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Response to melody (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:47 AM

3. I think that is an excellent observation melody

I think it would also help explain why Missouri was never close this time but was very close in 2008.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:48 AM

4. Most were "independents" embarrased to admit they are republicans.

 

I think there are two unreported stories.

1. The larger than expected turnout of black voters. This was not just about reelecting a black president as republicans try to portray it. I heard real anger amongst black voters about trying to suppress voting rights. There was also offense that they were trying to do a wedge by pretending they were only after people here illegally and voting. Black voters saw it for what it was and the fact that the Supreme Court is trying to overturn parts of the Voting Rights Act proves them right. Little is being reported on the backlash from black voters.

2. Young voters did turn out. They want a different America. I wish there were more and I am still surprised how some young people can vote for Romney. Many young voters are more in touch with the world due to technology. They are not buying the line that we have the best health care system in the world or that 47% of the country should be told to go to hell. This is a group that often gets labeled in negative ways. They made me proud on election day.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:54 AM

5. TeamObama, backlash against our TeaNut 2010 guv, & same-sex marriage caused YOUNG voters to come

out pretty big in Maine.

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Response to RBInMaine (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:04 AM

7. It is a good thing to see.

 

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:55 AM

6. Backlash against voter suppression has been covered and will be MORESO as more reflection comes out.

MSNBC has talked about it.

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Response to RBInMaine (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:05 AM

9. MSNBC is sometimes like the lone wolf.

 

I hope you are right.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:06 AM

10. Agree - Independent is meaningless now

In Arizona independents are something like 40% of the electorate - and EVERY one I've met is a Ron Paul supporter or a former Republican who now hates Bush. They tend to be in the Constitution Party area of the Conservative spectrum.

Moderate is the term that the mainstream media is looking for and they don't use it.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:15 AM

12. There was alot of talk about what black voters would

Do but nobody really spoke with black voters. We saw the blatant racism and disrespect. We heard the desperate. Call from the evangelicals about issues on one hand and disrespect of the president on the other. Since we are not represented in the msm nobody heard us until election day. We did expect a large turnout of black voters!

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Response to psychmommy (Reply #12)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:58 AM

16. I heard a lot of anger and people kept saying turn that anger into votes.

 

Angry that they were trying to turn back the clock.

Black voters came out and were heard loud and clear on election day.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:59 AM

17. Bingo! The disaffected Republican has been mentioned rarely, if at all...

As the post-election autopsy gathers pace, this reality will become more and more stark.

The ranks of "independent voters" have been swelled mostly by Repukes fleeing their increasingly insane and irrelevant party.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:05 AM

8. I honestly believe a person can not call them self an independent, and then vote

for the likes of Romney. He was way too fringe, even if it was only on every other day. They are just republican fence sitters. A true Indie would have looked at the issues at hand and never gone red this time, especially with everything at stake.

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Response to Sukie (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:06 AM

11. Exactly

 

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Response to Sukie (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:24 AM

13. Most Indies to have an ideological bent, but many are truly swing voters who vote split tickets.

We see this is Maine where the plurality are registered Indies. Some are R leaning, others D leaning, many are true split ticketers whose loyalties split every election with split ticket voting and sometimes they sway to the D or R depending on the particular election year. In this election in Maine we won back the moderate Indies who voted R in 2010 out of frustration with the economy. They came back to us because they rejected the TeaBaggery that got in two years ago.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:33 AM

14. Unlike 2008

THe O team did not work at all to drive up margins in the clearly blue states. They spent nearly all their money, time, and policy initiatives on securing margins of victory in the battlegrounds. Had they worked driving up margins in blue states, this would have looked vastly more like 2008. Romney on the other hand drove up margins in the red states, which actually did not help him at all.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #14)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 09:45 AM

15. Well, they DID work to NAIL DOWN their blue states. Did LOTS of work in ME, MN, MI, WI, & the rest.

We have been solidly blue since 1993 presidentially. Still, OFA worked VERY HARD up here to nail us down. I know because I worked with them. Not AS MUCH resource as the battleground states, but definitely some resource and a lot of hard work.

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Response to RBInMaine (Reply #15)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:23 PM

23. But they did not work to run up big margins

in CA, OR, WA, NY. Remember the huge rallies in 2008? Some of the biggest were in deep blue states that were hardly contested this time. I live in FL and what I was impressed about was the precision of this campaign. They spent nearly nothing in time and resources organizing me. There was no need, I always vote, never miss an election, and I contribute dem, but they seemed to know it and did not spend resources in my direction. The rallies in town were held not in big venues, but in the precincts where they knew they needed the voters to turn out and where turnout was often less dependable. There was no wasted motion. They went to the target audience directly and got them to the polls.

They worked to assure a win, not to run up the score in popular vote where it was not needed.

"Where were the huge rallies?", said the pundits. Huge rallies were never part of the plan, for the most part they did not rent the venues for them, plan them or set them up, because they were not needed to win.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 10:05 AM

18. No those indies were mostly repub who were ashamed of the label and switched to Independent.

They were false independents to put it straight Obama won the true independents in swing states.

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Response to Ataboy35 (Reply #18)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 11:01 AM

19. I have always believed this, but my daughter in MA says it is different there.

She says there ARE Independents who are not closet Republicans and they are a factor in elections, yet MA is a very blue state...

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #19)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:05 PM

20. YUP. See my post above. Same in Maine. Many split ticketers and those who will sway cycle to cycle.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:14 PM

21. I am glad we won popular vote overall

by a large marginů.I still want to get rid of electoral college.

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Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:18 PM

22. Many Indys Were Former Republicans Who Were Too Ashamed To Identify With Their Former Party/nt

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