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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 03:45 PM

The Republican Party is going to die.

You have been hearing all this talk about how the Republican Party is going to have to modify it's stances on various issues in order to be competitive with the different minorities in our society. I believe the truth is that it is incapable of this, because the party is driven by people who are scared to death of the fact that America is becoming an increasingly more diverse ethnically, culturally, and religiously. The Republican Party will eventually be replaced by another entity.
Here is how I think it will happen:

The elitists who have been financing the party and some of the it's leaders, will come to realize that they can no longer win national elections with a party that is dominated at it's base with tribal minded whites.

Starting with the next midterm elections, they will either infuse the Libertarian Party or start a new one , placing well financed candidates for the house and senate. They will be fiscally conservative on economic issues, but they will be much more moderate on social issues such as gay rights, womens reproductive rights, and immigration. There will be no pretense of a grass roots origin like there was with the Tea Party. They will win some seats and be especially successful in the Mid West.

In 2016, the Democrats will win easily because the new party and the Republicans will split what would have been the Republican vote.

By 2020, the new party will be the main opposition to the Democrats. The Republicans will still have some strength in the deep south and the appellations.






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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Republican Party is going to die. (Original post)
RDANGELO Nov 2012 OP
The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2012 #1
Speck Tater Nov 2012 #2
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #13
ffr Nov 2012 #18
Eerriicc36 Nov 2012 #19
Speck Tater Nov 2012 #20
paparush Nov 2012 #3
Liberal1975 Nov 2012 #4
CJCRANE Nov 2012 #5
charlyvi Nov 2012 #6
Rozlee Nov 2012 #8
alphafemale Nov 2012 #7
kurt_cagle Nov 2012 #9
Tutonic Nov 2012 #10
SDjack Nov 2012 #11
Brewinblue Nov 2012 #12
johnlucas Nov 2012 #14
budkin Nov 2012 #15
RBInMaine Nov 2012 #16
politicaljunkie41910 Nov 2012 #17
NCLefty Nov 2012 #21
k2qb3 Nov 2012 #22

Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 03:47 PM

1. The particular irony is that it is pounding the stake into its own heart.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 03:49 PM

2. The ideal two-party system:

 

Party 1: Centrist Democrats
Party 2: Left-wing Democrats

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Response to Speck Tater (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 05:57 PM

13. +1 nt

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Response to Speck Tater (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 09:20 PM

18. I'm with Speck Tater

That's what a two party system should look like.

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Response to Speck Tater (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:32 AM

19. It will be the same

 

It's all relative, we will show the same level of contempt towards the centrists

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Response to Eerriicc36 (Reply #19)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:30 AM

20. Of course. But if they win they won't go all Dark Ages on us. nt

 

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 03:55 PM

3. Wounded elephants are dangerous.

Prone to wild, unpredictable rampages.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 03:57 PM

4. I hope they do...

Beacuse maybe then we can have multiple political parties instead of the duopoly we have currently. The Republicans cannot hold on to their Christian Right base while simulteanously moderating their platform on social issues, so really they have no places in the electorate to grow. I think you might be right, not sure it will happen exactly as you predict, but I think the Republicans are at a fork in the road, for sure. Though lets not forget that Obama is a masterful politican we can't always count on the Democratic party nominating a candidate with his level of charisma.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:03 PM

5. They'll form the Eisenhower Party...

a grassroots movement for moderates and fiscal conservatives. They'll claim they're not Republicans, just concerned citizens of all parties and none. Fox News will promote their rallies and they'll become a new force in American politics.

After a couple of years they'll field candidates in congressional elections, all on the Republican ticket.

Then we'll find out that their supporters are the same old religious fundie GOP base under a different label.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:05 PM

6. Nah. Evil never dies.

It just comes back in a different form.

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Response to charlyvi (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:39 PM

8. That's for sure.

Although it's never faced death by demographics in the US, right-wing politics are a mainstay in all countries. Our particular brand of race-based, bible-thumping conservatism is mostly regional (Southern) and has been polluting our politics since before the slave days and is now the identity of the GOP with their bigotry, anti-science, anti-climate change denying. The fact that big business has married itself into their movement has further made them anti-union, anti-public school, pro-rich and anti-entitlements (unbeknownst to them, even some of their own). As an increasing wave of youth and minorities that are more tolerant of the social issues conservatives decry and repelled by the excesses of the 1% grow in numbers, the right-wing will start to become more marginalized. This will especially occur as their older, pre-civil rights, pre-segregation faction starts going tits up. I think I read somewhere that Limbaugh's audience's average age was around 72 or so. Fox viewers average is over 65. And they're not attracting many new viewers. But, don't underestimate conservatism's ability at adaptation. It could arise from a conflict over another war, a schism within minorities ourselves, economic hardship in the wake of more climate catastrophes, or just by the clever manipulations of the 1% in any of the above scenarios or any yet unheard of. You're 100% right. They're not going anywhere.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:06 PM

7. Or maybe it will be so small that we can drown it in a bathtub. nt

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:52 PM

9. New Party Likely

It comes down to who owns the brand. You're already seeing some signs of the emergence of an alt.gop:

* there's near open warfare between the GOP and the Paulites,
* the eleventh hour conversion of Chris Christie (and the "you are dead to us now" attitude of the GOP leadership),
* the shortlist with Hunstman on it for SecState,
* Colin Powell's endorseman of Obama

This election was a powerful repudiation of the Religious Right and the Tea Party, given the number of women elected, the gay rights initiatives, the pot initiatives, and things like the Michigan regional management defeats. It's a massive defeat for the Koch Brothers and the Texas mafioso as well, and quite likely an economically costly one, not just in terms of money spent but on the ability of these players to get others to pay to play. The money spent was not, even for a billionaire, chump change.

Another question is the degree to which the rank and file Republican will in fact repudiate the party after the election. Fox and CNN in particular are going to have a lot of explaining to do as the cognitive dissonance that a lot of Republicans are now facing begin to really work out. If the economy does continue to improve, moreover, this dissonance is going to only become more pronounced.

Now personally, I'm waiting for the smoking gun that ties Benghazi to Republican operatives here in the US, something I've suspected for a while. I don't believe that the ambassador was intended to die - he was collateral damage - but given the past history of the GOP and how quickly they were to jump on it this feels staged. Should that happen, then yes, I think the GOP will implode shortly thereafter.

I also agree with the OP that I see the Libertarians to be the biggest recipients of any new such "aid". It's not an ideal marriage for the power brokers, especially those in Finance, largely because of the antagonistic stance that most Libertarians have for the Federal Reserve, but the Libertarians in general tend to be more socially liberal than the bible thumpers and tend to have a larger representation among GenXers, making them far more attractive from a long term rebuilding standpoint. There's an outside chance that you may see a jump to try to peel off the Progressives from the Centrists on the Democratic side and support them, but think that's a taller order at this stage - there's just too much corporate distrust from the Progressives at this stage. The break will happen eventually - especially if the Dems enter a period of time where they have control of the government for a while, but it will take a while (and will likely only occur if you see a move to a multiparty runoff like California's system rather than a first past the post arrangement in most states).

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:57 PM

10. I wish them well in their alternet world of

rich sycophant racists. Leave mankind alone!!!!

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 05:16 PM

11. By 2020, ObamaCare will be a raging success. No party can take on the DEM party

and expect to win election by promising to "rip out ObamaCare by its roots." Boner and McConnell have killed the future of their Republican Party. And, for that, I say "thanks".

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 05:39 PM

12. The Paulbots are not going away, but neither are the fundies, tea-baggers or the fat cats

But the Paulbots need to moderate the Ayn Rand lunacy and distance themselves from Paul's racism and antisemitism. This would attract the billionaires, especially if it were socially moderate, but fiercely free-market based. Sort of Rockefeller Republican but a bit crazier. I expect this to be a new GOP

The fundies are screwed, all they will have at their disposal are frustrated, crazy teagbaggers. I'm guessing that this will become a psuedofacist, theocratic party with limited success in various pockets around the country. The danger is if these nuts attract and successfully promote a new Reagan type. Dumb as dirt, but a great communicator who "looks like a President."

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 06:14 PM

14. My view exactly

Especially the part you said about the Libertarians merging with the Republicans.
They looking to add a new base & who else but the outsider Libertarians could they add?
But even that won't help the Republicans.
Democrats are poised to dominate politics wholesale (AGAIN) in the next coming decades should Obama's 2nd term start bearing its promised fruit.

The Libertarian/Republican merge will just boil right back down to that same coalition they have now just with a new label.
It will still end up being the White Party alienating non-Whites everywhere.

Those bigots were always poisonous. It just took about 50 years to see the effects.
The Republican Party should have never absorbed those Dixiecrats.
They will not survive. The Republican Party is on its way to death no matter what they try.
John Lucas

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 06:27 PM

15. I said that in 2008 and won't make the mistake again

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 09:12 PM

16. The most important point you make is how GRIPPED IN DELUSIONAL FEAR their base is.

This delusional but absolutely vise-gripping fear they have just will not enable their base to change. The plain truth is that the old, white, majority male base is riddled with ethnocentrism, racism, and FEAR. They are absolutely gripped with a fear and hate that is CONSTANTLY fed to them by right wing talk radio and FAKE News tv. Their old strategy used to be, "Divide the electorate by getting 51% to hate the 49%, and we win." The problem is, the 51% is now the 49-and-dwingling percent, and dwindling FAST. No, the radical right base of the Republican Party is DOUBLING DOWN on their fear and hate because they are so afraid that they will become the numerical and political minority.

The Republican leaders and politicians are driven by their Rush LimpMind-listening radical base. Not the other way around. America is changing, and instead of moderating the embracing the change, they are doing just the opposite. In addition, they are not moderating on their policies either. Most Americans want adequate government and a secure retirement, not a double down on FAILED trickle down. They are out of step with the majority on ALL fronts. They are numerically in the minority, philosophically in the minority, and in the minority on policy. Pretty bad place to be.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 09:17 PM

17. Sorry if I'm skeptical, but we heard that after the 2008 election and they came back from the

dead and took the House by a landslide, and Mitch O'Connell created Obstruction City in the Senate. We must not underestimate this bunch until they are in the ground and the corpse is rotting.

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Response to RDANGELO (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:47 AM

21. Median voter theorem

Which basically says that both parties will almost always try to seek the average voter by modifying their positions to woo them. Yes, there are exceptions and times when one party goes farther to one side, as the GOP is doing now, but the effect of this very election will cause them to seek the middle once again. After all, above all else, they don't want to lose again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem

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Response to NCLefty (Reply #21)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:01 PM

22. The delusional bubble has kept the GOP from adapting as they should have.

In a two party system there should never be a huge advantage to one party but because the GOP failed to recognize reality for so long their brand is extremely weak.

Limbaugh said it himself in Sept. "if we lose to Obama it'll be the end of the Republican party"

I believe for once he was absolutely right.

I also think it will be a libertarian/moderate party that replaces todays GOP, but it will take decades for that party to gain national power, the worst elements of the conservative movement aren't going away, they won't do the smart thing. Not sure if it will be a new party or the Republican party will try to reform itself, seems like the GOP holds nothing but baggage now.

If Democrats are smart they'll grow the party significantly from where it is now over the next couple cycles, there are a couple really simple things they could do politically to completely dominate American politics (ease gunowners fears, rethink WOD), but there are people in the party who want to go the other way which will accelerate the oppositions recovery.

It would be a shame if Dems handed the Reps a winning issue now.

I kind of wish Santorum had won the primary now, the war within the R party is good for Dems but I'm not sure the wingnuts doubling down on stupid is good for the country.

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