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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:08 PM

Forget Nate Silver: Meet The Guy Who Called 2012 In 2002

Calling all 50 states the day before the election as Nate Silver did is one thing — predicting President Obama’s winning majority 10 years in advance is hard to top.

But that’s what Ruy Teixeira did. Since 2002, when Democrats were at a low point and sinking lower, Teixeira has consistently argued that long-term demographic trends pointed to brighter days ahead for the party. He and John Judis published a book that year, “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” that envisioned a governing majority in the next decade consisting of three rapidly growing voting blocs — women, minorities, and professionals.
Along with young voters, these three groups are credited with powering Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories. Latinos were critical in contests across the country on Tuesday, especially in Western states like New Mexico (no longer even a swing state), Nevada, and Colorado. African American turnout helped put Obama over the top in states like Ohio. Huge advantages with women helped secure states like Iowa (28% gender gap). And a growing professional class in Virginia and North Carolina — solid red states when Teixeira published his book — put the former in Obama’s camp for a second straight election and kept the latter competitive until the end.

It’s easy to forget now, but after President Bush won re-election in 2004, there was a popular school of thought that America was entering an extended period in which Republicans would hold an unshakable majority. Karl Rove claimed the results as a “realignment” in which evangelical and suburban turnout would destroy the Democrats’ viability as a national party. Other observers like Michael Barone backed him up. Perhaps not coincidentally, both of them predicted a Romney landslide last week.

more:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/forget-nate-silver-meet-the-guy-who-called-2012-in-2002.php?ref=fpb

6 replies, 2088 views

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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Forget Nate Silver: Meet The Guy Who Called 2012 In 2002 (Original post)
DonViejo Nov 2012 OP
smorkingapple Nov 2012 #1
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #2
krawhitham Nov 2012 #3
LVdem Nov 2012 #4
abelenkpe Nov 2012 #5
bucolic_frolic Nov 2012 #6

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:27 PM

1. I remember that guy being laughed at in 2004. These trends take much time to develop.

and the scared America we were from 2001-2006 helped blunt this inevitable trend but it's inexorable.

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Response to smorkingapple (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:20 PM

2. He was laughed at in 2002 and 2004

But I remember mentioning that book in my early days on this site in fall 2002, and many posters here were familiar with it, and the theories. Good threads. I was impressed because on other sites a mention of that book had drawn a blank.

Situational influence always fascinates me, in sports and politics. When I entered a 16-man election betting pool in 1996 one of the first things I noticed when studying trends was that the white vote had been declining considerably each cycle, as a percentage of the electorate, but not enough to become decisive or a prevailing theme.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:22 PM

3. Yeah but he cheated

He is a time traveler

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:22 PM

4. Until there is a "drunk Ruy Teixeira" twitter thingy...

I'm going with Nate SIlver.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:46 PM

5. Makes sense too

When you think of how things cycle through generations. We had 35 years of moving to the right. Time to go left.

Remember how everyone was predicting the housing market would always go up and Dow 20,000? When you hear stuff like that a cycle is near it's end. Same thing with the shift to the right.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:52 PM

6. It's fine to celebrate

but anyone getting too giddy should remember

that most state legislatures are out of our reach and they have
gerrymandered us to 195 House seats

and the Senate includes a two seat gift from the God's-Will-is-Rape
blatherers

And Boehner is ready to block tax increases

Obama will have to imitate Mitt to get anything passed

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