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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:00 PM

The Whole Romney Ticket Believed in Unskewed Polls?

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both believed the public polls were wrong, and that they'd win on Election Day. Their wives did, too. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming," a senior adviser told CBS News' Jan Crawford. An advisor said of Romney, "He was shellshocked." When Romney claimed on Election Day that he hadn't written a concession speech, it sounded like trash talk. Apparently it wasn't. How could they not have seen it coming?

In the last weeks of the campaign, Romney's campaign sounded super confident -- New York's Jonathan Chait wrote that they were bluffing when aides said they could win Nevada, or when Romney surrogate Rob Portman called Ohio a "dead heat." That sounded ridiculous because Romney never led Obama in polling averages of Ohio, and Obama was ahead or tied in all of the last 30 polls done in the state except one by Republican-leaning Rasmussen.

Conservatives began claiming the polls were wrong, that they vastly overestimated what turnout levels would be among blacks, Latinos, and young people. UnSkewedPolls.com changed the number of Democrats and Republicans in polls to show Romney leading everywhere. You'd expect Romney's campaign to play this up publicly to maintain supporters' enthusiasm -- like when political director Rich Beeson said the Sunday before the election that Romney would win more than 300 electoral college votes. But you don't expect them to actually believe it. But Romney, his wife, Ryan, and his wife apparently did.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/whole-romney-ticket-believed-unskewed-polls/58852/

Dumbasses!!!

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:02 PM

1. So we won because they are dumbasses

somehow that's not very comforting!

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:05 PM

3. NO. They lost because they are dumbasses

There is a lot of comfort in that difference

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:06 PM

4. No, they were dumbasses

and we would have won no matter if they were or not.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:04 PM

2. this story has been on the wire for a while

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:06 PM

5. In so many ways, they live in their own insulated world.

I'm not proud of myself, but I derived particular satisfaction from Ann Romney's distress. I grew to loathe her what with the "you people" and "it's our turn" and "stop it" .

She's an insufferable snob and they'll never understand how they weren't the choice of the electorate.

FDR and the Kennedys weren't as clueless as these disgusting elitists.

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Response to gateley (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:17 PM

8. When I think of her, I just can't help thinking about "the horse she rode in on!"

FDR had the strength of empathy, the whole "I got plenty, I need to give back" routine. JFK had it too, and he also knew he was just a generation or two away from bootleggers, gangsters, and small time politicians who clawed their way to power in Boston.

You gotta either have a compassionate nature, or a knowledge of your own history, or both. Money BooBoo had neither.

So, you're not alone. Nothing wrong with recognizing an asshole for being just that, either.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:07 PM

6. I'm of the belief that some high up staffer ordered the pollsters to ignore math

 

I'm CERTAIN they told the pollsters to treat party ID as demographic data instead of as opinion data, then told them what the projected turnouts would be.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:12 PM

7. Mitt-n-Annie believe they are aliens and that

native people are lost Jews, DNA be damned, so I guess they'd be easy to convince of pretty much anything. They're accustomed, the serious practitioners, anyway, to taking massive leaps of faith, and quite literally, too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolob

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetics_and_the_Book_of_Mormon

Not sure where Ryan managed to dig up his justifications--perhaps he was receiving messages from beyond the grave from Ayn Rand!

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:24 PM

9. Romney did seem creepily confident.

It sent a shiver down my spine when I saw a clip of one of his stump speeches close to the election. He had a suit and tie on and said with utmost confidence "we will bring REAL change". There was no "if we win" or "with your help", just a flat-out declaration. It felt like a scene out of a sci-fi movie.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:25 PM

10. I don't actually believe this. I think they were counting on voters supression and software to "win"

Karl told them it was in the bag and they believed him. I think they were stunned that the "fix" didn't work again this time. Rove's strategy was the same one he used in 2004. This time it failed. That's why the Obama team was not up-in-arms about the new patch that was being placed on machines in Ohio. They'd already de-patched it.

Maybe I just like conspiracy theories but Karl's shock on Tuesday night was not an act. He really could not believe that it was not working.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:48 PM

11. College is supposed to teach critical thinking

It makes me start to think that these "elite" schools are filled with dumb asses. If there was 50-50 split it would be up for grabs. When every poll says it the polls are right.

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