Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:58 AM
geek tragedy (25,721 posts)
PPP's Tom Jensen: Republican polling analysts are 'morons'
Last edited Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:59 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
And the polling outfit that had as good a performance as any was one that may have sparked even more pre-election conservative ire than Silver. Public Policy Polling, a small polling firm in North Carolina, conducted a whopping 255 public polls in 2012, and it often seemed like polling skeptics (and even other pollsters) had a bone to pick with each one. This was partly because PPP uses automated dialers. It was also because PPP is a Democratic polling firm. But when the results came in, PPP’s polls had called all 50 states correctly in the presidential race (assuming Florida ultimately goes to Obama), every Senate race, and every important ballot initiative. Its private polling — like the 23 surveys it did of Kentucky legislative races for one client — was similarly on the mark.
6 replies, 868 views
Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
PPP's Tom Jensen: Republican polling analysts are 'morons' (Original post)
|geek tragedy||Nov 2012||OP|
|Third Doctor||Nov 2012||#1|
|geek tragedy||Nov 2012||#2|
|Drunken Irishman||Nov 2012||#6|
Response to geek tragedy (Original post)
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:36 AM
yellowcanine (24,444 posts)
4. Gallup needs to start over. For the last couple of elections, they have become really unreliable.
They tend to come in a little closer at the end but that in itself is very suspicious. How can they be so far off a week out from the election day results. Polls just don't move that quickly.
And it appears that the problem is with their likely voter model. If they scrapped it and just used registered voters they likely would have a much better result with less volatility.