The secret of Mitt’s success (Blue states, Mormons and non-voting territories)
By Steve Kornacki
If Mitt Romney does secure the Republican nomination – and it’s still likely he will – some very unusual math will be a big reason for it. The past week tells the story well.
In the two highest-profile contests last Tuesday, each in the heart of the most deeply Republican region in the country, Romney finished in third place, behind both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Those setbacks in Alabama and Mississippi continued Romney’s string of futility in the South, where his northern roots, culturally liberal past, and maybe even his Mormon faith have stirred suspicion among the conservative evangelicals who dominate the region’s GOP politics.
But if you look beyond the bad headlines that came with the Mississippi and Alabama results, it actually wasn’t a bad week at all for Romney, who swept the three other contests on the board — Hawaii, American Samoa and Puerto Rico. This allowed him to build on what was already a sizable lead in delegates, an advantage that figures to grow when the votes in Illinois, a state with a more moderate GOP tradition and where evangelical clout isn’t as pronounced, are counted tonight.
Illinois, Puerto Rico, American Samoa and Hawaii all have something in common, of course: They won’t be voting for the Republican ticket this fall – two because they’re blue states, and two because they’re U.S. territories whose residents can’t participate in presidential elections. This speaks to the very unusual formula that Romney has been exploiting — deep concentrations of support in Democratic states and regions, under-the-radar venues, and areas with substantial Mormon populations, all amplified by his campaign’s outsize edge in money and organization.
http://www.salon.com/2012/03/20/the_secret_of_mitt%E2%80%99s_success/
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