Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:54 AM

grantcart (38,728 posts)

The time has come to take the (D) off of PPP Polling.

One of the frustrations of the last campaign season was the designation of various polling. Gravis was never identified as R even when it issued polls which gave Romney huge leads in the swing states of CO, VA and NC.

PPP on the other hand seemed to have the most accurate polling. It labeled NC as a tie when Gravis was giving Romney an 8+ advantage. PPP is always identified as a Democratic polling firm because they are frequently hired by Democrats. And yet in 2010 they went against the pack in predicting first that Brown would take Kennedy's seat.

Fordham University examined and ranked the various polling. The most accurate pollster was PPP. PPP therefore has to be considered the baseline and from that point all other pollsters you would either fall in the range of error or show a consistent R or D bias. The pollster who is identified as the most accurate cannot be categorized as having a bias, by definition. PPP is the only pollster that cannot be given either a D or R.

The fact that the most accurate pollster is usually hired by Democrats, or that they are run by Democrats, or that they make the most sense to Democrats doesn't mean that PPP leans Democratic it means that Democrats lean to objectivity.

The media should stop attaching 'D' to PPP, they are only embarrassing themselves.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf

Fordham Ranks the accuracy of various pollsters.

1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)*
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal*

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30 replies	Author	Time	Post
The time has come to take the (D) off of PPP Polling. (Original post)	grantcart	Nov 2012	OP
Thanks. Saw this on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and meant to find a copy. The asterisks,for those	Dark n Stormy Knight	Nov 2012	#1
PPP is hired by Dems but can still be accurate	Cicada	Nov 2012	#2
You have the cart before the horse.	grantcart	Nov 2012	#6
When I follow your link, I see a page that ranks PPP as third most accurate.	Jim__	Nov 2012	#3
I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list	grantcart	Nov 2012	#5
It looks like that link takes me to an updated page.	Jim__	Nov 2012	#7
not a big deal but when I hit the link I get the other page, and that page is the one that is being	grantcart	Nov 2012	#10
Here's a direct link to Fordham's report.	Jim__	Nov 2012	#22
you know that is very sloppy work	grantcart	Nov 2012	#23
Always said that PPP ,was the most accurate pollster	outsideworld	Nov 2012	#4
In A Perfect World Republican And Democratic Pollsters Would Produce The Same Results	DemocratSinceBirth	Nov 2012	#8
When all the votes are counted, there will be a Democratic pollster on top of the list, but not PPP.	bornskeptic	Nov 2012	#9
No is talking about the largely irrelevent national polls but the hundreds of critical state polls	grantcart	Nov 2012	#11
You didn't read the last line above the list of polls?	bornskeptic	Nov 2012	#12
NPR at 26?	Xyzse	Nov 2012	#13
I don't take Gravis rating seriously. If you are going to run a con then you are going to select a	grantcart	Nov 2012	#17
Interesting...	Xyzse	Nov 2012	#19
PPP did well on the national level but they were caught fudging figures in the MO Senate race.	former9thward	Nov 2012	#14
they did state , that most polled had probably not heard about the rape comments	outsideworld	Nov 2012	#15
Other polls released at the exact same time showed Akin down by 9-12.	former9thward	Nov 2012	#16
Rasmussen poll was intentionally bad because they wanted to force akin out of the race	outsideworld	Nov 2012	#24
Mason Dixon had McCaskill up 9 at the same time.	former9thward	Nov 2012	#27
I am unaware of PPP doing any national polls	grantcart	Nov 2012	#18
From your link:	former9thward	Nov 2012	#21
Accurate Polling...	PoliticalBiker	Nov 2012	#20
The D is not an indication of slant, it is what it is	cthulu2016	Nov 2012	#25
That is basically my point	grantcart	Nov 2012	#29
While the Rand poll	oswaldactedalone	Nov 2012	#26
what was unique about their methodology	grantcart	Nov 2012	#28
Totaly agree. The perception that D pollsters are D leaning is in most cases totally wrong.	DCBob	Nov 2012	#30

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:39 AM

Dark n Stormy Knight (1,176 posts)

1. Thanks. Saw this on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and meant to find a copy. The asterisks,for those

wondering, indicate the 10 polls that owhile ten "overestimated Obama strength." The others did the same with Romney.

Your analysis sounds reasonable to me. I'm surprised about YouGov being so high on the accuracy list. I take their polls and their questions often strike me as having an R bias.

The time has come to take the (D) off of PPP Polling.

1. Thanks. Saw this on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and meant to find a copy. The asterisks,for those

2. PPP is hired by Dems but can still be accurate

6. You have the cart before the horse.

3. When I follow your link, I see a page that ranks PPP as third most accurate.

5. I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list

7. It looks like that link takes me to an updated page.

10. not a big deal but when I hit the link I get the other page, and that page is the one that is being

22. Here's a direct link to Fordham's report.

23. you know that is very sloppy work

4. Always said that PPP ,was the most accurate pollster

8. In A Perfect World Republican And Democratic Pollsters Would Produce The Same Results

9. When all the votes are counted, there will be a Democratic pollster on top of the list, but not PPP.

11. No is talking about the largely irrelevent national polls but the hundreds of critical state polls

12. You didn't read the last line above the list of polls?

13. NPR at 26?

17. I don't take Gravis rating seriously. If you are going to run a con then you are going to select a

19. Interesting...

14. PPP did well on the national level but they were caught fudging figures in the MO Senate race.

15. they did state , that most polled had probably not heard about the rape comments

16. Other polls released at the exact same time showed Akin down by 9-12.

24. Rasmussen poll was intentionally bad because they wanted to force akin out of the race

27. Mason Dixon had McCaskill up 9 at the same time.

18. I am unaware of PPP doing any national polls

21. From your link:

20. Accurate Polling...

25. The D is not an indication of slant, it is what it is

29. That is basically my point

26. While the Rand poll

28. what was unique about their methodology

30. Totaly agree. The perception that D pollsters are D leaning is in most cases totally wrong.