With Eleven Weeks To Go, Hillary Clinton Appears To Be Unstoppable

[KMOD]

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Looking first at the national level, we see that Clinton continues to dominate the race just as she did in the week after the party conventions. According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton (47.0%) with a 5. 5 point lead over Trump (41.5%). In a four way race that includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton’s lead dips slightly to 4.4 points and the average shows Clinton checking in at 41.6%, Donald Trump at 37.3%, Johnson at 8.9%, and Stein at 3. 4 %. The Pollster numbers for a head-to-head match and a three-way race that includes Johnson but not Stein are roughly comparable. These numbers have been relatively stable in the roughly three weeks since the party conventions, with some fluctuations in both Clinton’s and Trump’s numbers, but nothing significant in either direction for the past week or so, as the RealClearPolitics chart for the two-way race shows:

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While they are a generally good guide to the state of the race at a given point in time, national polls aren’t really where the election is decided, of course. That happens at the state level and in the Electoral College. If anything, though, Clinton seems to be in a far better position there than she is in the national polling, as this map from RealClearPolitics shows:

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Based on this map, the election would essentially be over if today were Election Day even before any of the states still considered toss-up states, represented by those colored gray, are decided. The bad news for Trump is that Clinton has seemingly cut off not only the Virginia-Ohio-Florida option for Trump, but she has also cut off what is likely his only other path to 270 Electoral Votes.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/with-eleven-weeks-to-go-hillary-clinton-appears-to-be-unstoppable/

GOTV

[DURHAM D]

1. Oh, but the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

Something about working to help people through a charitable organization.

Some bad optics which means to me there is no substance but I have a chance to trash the Clintons on DU. Yeah!!!

Thanks for your post. Sick of the people who won't get her/their back even though she will keep fighting for them.

Go Hillary !

[KMOD]

4. Eff the haters.

[Blue Idaho]

2. Prepare for the October Surprise...

No doubt the Trump campaign and the Alt.Rep. party will do everything in its power to assassinate Sec. Clinton's character. Expect it to get vile and disgusting. Expect the teapublican House members to start hearings on perjury charges. Expect the rejichwing media to create more false stories about the dark evil woman behind the mask. Expect Trump and his pack of jackals to say increasingly outrageous and violent things.

In short they will act like your typical republicans trying to lie, cheat, and steal their way into the White House.

I hope the Alt.Rep. party is completely destroyed in November. They have earned it.

[KMOD]

3. They've been at it for 18 months now,

Not to mention the decades they've been trying it as well.

The haters have jumped the shark. Folks aren't buying their garbage anymore and the polls show it.

[Blue Idaho]

5. I hope you are right

But that won't stop them from pulling out the old playbook again this year. We just need to be prepared to push back and push back hard!

[Hortensis]

10. Sure. But you know, the huge blowback from Bill's impeachment

took the media entirely by surprise. Election after election they're always wrong in some huge way, often completely.

If over a quarter century of constant swiftboating hasn't taken the Clintons out, why would it now? Specifically, if the media were correct (at ANY point, in fact) in their portrayals of HRC's tremendous problems with voter perception, how on earth could she have so many admirers?

Trump of course has something to do with Hillary's huge leads, but she'd almost certainly be winning against any of the 2016 GOP candidates. The GOP not only is fighting against American demographics but is melting down as factions of its own membership rebel against their own lying, betraying leadership.

And how likely is it that a public with decades of the same swiftboating under their belts, many of whom still remember the years of it that lead to an opportunistic, politically corrupt impeachment, could suddenly be so shocked by yet more new "revelations" that millions of those who intended to vote for HRC reversed their votes to Trump, or refused to vote?

Constant, unrelenting attacks have their minuses, not just plusses. We could conceivably even see a repeat of the blowback against the GOP should desperation lead them to overplay their hand.

[BobbyDrake]

6. Even notable GOPers are going public, calling the perjury rumors out as pure partisanship.

The media can't provide the House GOP cover when there's bipartisan consensus against what they're doing. They will TRY to make the perjury a thing, but it's like the emails; all the experts who take a look dismiss the GOP's efforts as a witch hunt.

[Blue Idaho]

7. Expect the unexpected...

It may or may not be perjury hearings. After all the point of an October Surprise is... its a surprise. These folks are desperate and they will do anything and everything - including chewing their own leg off to avoid the humiliating defeat that is coming their way.

I think the chance of them not trying an October surprise are slim to none.

[LanternWaste]

8. I think the October Surprise will be surprising

I think the October Surprise will be surprising only in how ineffectual and weak it will be, that polls will stay unchanged, and yet more egg will appear on the GOP faces.

Irrational responses are to be expected from bullies undergoing a blowout loss, and those irrational responses will adhere only to the side lacking professionalism and patience.

So allow them their melodrama and campaign swan-songs. I have zero reason to believe it will result in even the slightest movement of polls or voters, as precisely the same was said in 2012 and 2008, yet polls moved nary a bit.

[drray23]

9. they will try.

However, It will blow up in their face like all the previous hearings they had where they ended up looking like idiots.

[KMOD]

14. If they had an October surprise

it would be out there already. The would never hold off on something that could potentially harm Hillary, and especially with how bad the polls are looking, not only for tiny hands, but the republican down ticket.

No one has been vetted, or scrutinized more. They've got nothing.

[Stellar]

11. Only if we GOTV!!! nt

[MyshkinCommaPrince]

12. Worried about Trump + Johnson

Is there information available about how likely Johnson supporters are to vote for Trump? My understanding is that third party support tends to dwindle as the election approaches.

[KMOD]

15. According to the info at the link,

the change is not significant when Johnson is excluded from the polling.

[helpisontheway]

13. I think the Oct. surprise would have to MAJOR

to change the trajectory in the swing states that she is leading by double digits. I mean it could cause the race to tighten but pretty hard to overcome something like the 16 point lead in VA. I think Trump had been defined for many do it would be hard to overcome that perception.

[KMOD]

16. Yup.

There is no pivot that can turn back time and take away all the crazy things he has said and done.