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Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:57 PM

Nate Silver: Be careful about reports of down turnout. Perhaps still 10 million votes to be counted


Nate Silver Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Be careful about reports of down turnout. Perhaps still 10 million votes to be counted.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/266698036548345856


NUMBERS here: http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/there-are-no-missing-voters




29 replies, 2915 views

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Reply Nate Silver: Be careful about reports of down turnout. Perhaps still 10 million votes to be counted (Original post)
Tx4obama Nov 2012 OP
Vadem Nov 2012 #1
former9thward Nov 2012 #7
sweetloukillbot Nov 2012 #2
beac Nov 2012 #10
patricia92243 Nov 2012 #3
Tx4obama Nov 2012 #12
JRLeft Nov 2012 #4
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #5
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #6
former9thward Nov 2012 #8
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #13
dbackjon Nov 2012 #24
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #28
dbackjon Nov 2012 #20
former9thward Nov 2012 #21
dbackjon Nov 2012 #23
former9thward Nov 2012 #25
dbackjon Nov 2012 #26
dbackjon Nov 2012 #9
LisaL Nov 2012 #22
union_maid Nov 2012 #11
sweetloukillbot Nov 2012 #18
MadBadger Nov 2012 #19
Thomas B Nov 2012 #14
LiberalElite Nov 2012 #15
Tx4obama Nov 2012 #16
Jennicut Nov 2012 #17
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #27
yellowcanine Nov 2012 #29

Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:17 PM

1. Are we going to take back the House with these votes??? n/t

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Response to Vadem (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:26 PM

7. No.

A seat or two may change but that is about it.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:36 PM

2. Thanks for posting!

I've seen all sorts of RW idiots posting about how W did better in his midterms and I immediately realized that turnout would be down because of Sandy - which would skew the numbers in Romney's favor.

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Response to sweetloukillbot (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:35 PM

10. Not to mention all the voter suppression efforts...

shorter early voting periods, confusion over ID requirements, threatening billboards, new registrations trashed by GOP-paid operative and on and on and on. And then the ENDLESS lines at many polling places on election day. It's a wonder the number wasn't even lower.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:47 PM

3. When will we know the final tally?

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Response to patricia92243 (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:52 PM

12. I don't know when we will have a final number, BUT ...


On the Chart on the following link they are updating the numbers as new ones come in, here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_presidential_election_results#Results

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:51 PM

4. There will be voting in New Jersey tomorrow too.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:55 PM

5. If true, I stand very corrected

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:07 PM

6. Networks shouldn't use "99% reporting" in regard to popular vote

It never threatens accuracy. Not in precincts, not in percentage of total vote. On election night there are always 8-10 million votes remaining when that ticker reaches the absurd 99%. I know very well because I often have a wager on the popular vote margin.

I can't believe the theme of very low vote total has persisted for a couple of days this year. Hours ago I made a comment under Nate's recent post on NYT that the vote numbers in many states are ridiculously low. Arizona is logically proposed as a state shifting in our favor but if you looked at the margin and accompanying partisan index at face value that state would be the biggest disappointment in the country, bordering on stunning. Then you check the raw numbers and realize there have to be hundreds of thousands of outstanding votes, primarily Democratic.

Final tally normally takes until the following July. Fortunately, the betting sites don't take that long to post the result and pay off. The numbers change only slightly in the final months.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:29 PM

8. I am in AZ and the votes are split.

They are not "primarily Democratic". I have been watching the vote totals increase by each day and Democrats are getting few more votes than Rs but that is about it.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:01 PM

13. If we lose Arizona by 11% while winning nationally by 3%

That's a startling blow to the notion that Arizona is the next blue state. The polling suggested Romney by 7 or 8.

If there are hundreds of thousands of votes remaining to be counted, they can be balanced until a specific friendly area joins the mix. I have to believe the margin will go down.

I realize Arizona's Hispanic population is very young, and many of them are undocumented and ineligible to vote. Normally when a state is starting to trend our way a general election result will be 1-3 points more friendly than expected, even when we're not pursuing the state. This may tilt the other way.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:42 AM

24. Many are undocumented? You been listening to Rush?

Last two elections featured an Arizonan, and a Mormon.

Arizona could end up with 5 Dem Congressmen, vs 4 GOP.

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #24)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:31 PM

28. Actually I remember it from Nate Silver's site

A summary of Arizona. In fact, I found the article today, dated October 23:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/why-arizona-isnt-a-battleground-state-and-why-it-may-be-soon/

Here's the related paragraph:

"Hispanics may comprise about 30 percent of the state, but they make up 25 percent of the state’s voting-age population, because they skew much younger than non-Hispanic whites. In addition, roughly one-third of Arizona Latinos are undocumented and cannot vote. Even among Hispanics who can vote, turnout has lagged behind that of non-Hispanic whites."

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Response to former9thward (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:27 AM

20. I would bet that they end up being 60-65% Democratic

The last ones to get counted will be the provisional ballots - which will be overwhelmingly Democratc.

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #20)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:00 AM

21. That may be the case.

But it will not affect the outcome of any race. The people ahead right now will remain so.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #21)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:40 AM

23. When Ron Barber is behind by 79 votes as of last night

Yes, it could affect the outcome.

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:55 AM

25. The last figure I saw last night Barber was ahead by about 400.

Don't know the current figure.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #25)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:05 PM

26. Even better - mine was from the 6 oclock news

He ended election day down a couple thousand.

Sinema's lead keeps increasing.


All good signs.


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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:31 PM

9. 600,000 in Arizona. I would bet 2/3 are Democratic

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:03 AM

22. 200,000 in OH.

They don't even start counting them until Nov 17.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:42 PM

11. There's no doubt in my mind that Sandy had an effect

The news was full of stories about people getting to the polls despite the difficulties but there have to be many more that just couldn't get there or didn't have strong enough political feelings to do it. In New York State you were allowed to to vote at any polling place if you were displace, but of course, you couldn't vote for local races that way. The presedential and senatorial race were both locks. Unless you were passionate about just casting your vote for or against Obama or Gillibrand there wasn't a lot of urgency in getting to the polls for those who had other major problems - like no public transportation or gas for instance.

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Response to union_maid (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:39 PM

18. I saw one report that estimated turnout in NJ and NY down 25 %.

That's gotta be a big chunk of votes.

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Response to sweetloukillbot (Reply #18)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:47 PM

19. Hell, I voted yesterday

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:02 PM

14. Arizona's provisional ballots could tip the senate race?

 

Carmona is the kind of candidate who would win in the state. He may of conceded too early.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:08 PM

15. Sorry, I have to ask this

Does this mean Romney can win?

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Response to LiberalElite (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:17 PM

16. No. There are not enough outstanding 'red votes' in the states that he would have to win.



President Obama will be inaugurated January 20, 2013

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:26 PM

17. Turnout definitely affected by Sandy.



Poor NJ and NY had a lot of issues with voting. In my state of CT, there was issues but some drop off.

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:06 PM

27. Nate may have been snookered here. The number is closer to 5 million.

This is just a link Nate tweeted, not his own work.

Curtis Gans is to turn-out what Nate Silver is to polls, so I'll take his 126 million as the best estimate we have until it is proven wrong.

And it is likely that Nate will adopt the Gans figure also, which came out this morning.

I put the odds of Nate incorporating the Gans estimate at 87.3% (that is a joke.)

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Response to Tx4obama (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:55 PM

29. Agree. Too early to be drawing conclusions about turnout.

In any case, there is no question that turnout in two large states, NY and NJ was hampered by Sandy. That alone could be in the tens of thousands. The other assumption that some Republicans have been making is that if Republican turnout is down it is entirely the result of negative campaigning by Obama. First response is "so what"? and second response is, how can they possibly know? There are many reasons why this might be so. Republicans had a nasty primary. That alone could explain tens of thousands of Republicans not turning out. And the assumption that Republicans had higher levels of enthusiasm is impossible to test. Saying it is so does not make it true, no matter how many times they repeated it (and they did a lot). So we do not know how much low enthusiasm may account for lower Republican turnout. And then there is the elephant in the room the Republicans do not want to talk about. They got absolutely out gunned on GOTV, particularly in the Battleground states. More evidence will come out in the coming days but my prediction is that this will be the main explanation of the Republican turnout debacle going forward, as the analysis is completed. To be making all kinds of pronouncements in the first few days about the known reasons for a particular turnout rate is just stupid.

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