Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:14 PM
applegrove (74,742 posts)
"Paul Ryan Was Not the GOP’s Savior. He May Even Have Been its Albatross."
Paul Ryan Was Not the GOP’s Savior. He May Even Have Been its Albatross.
by Noam Scheiber at the New Republic
But during the brief moment this summer when Ryan was prominently featured in the campaign—the window the Ingrahams of the world now pine for—his presence only made Romney less appealing to seniors and less credible on Medicare, depressing his margins in swing states. Not long after Ryan joined the ticket in August, a Quinnipiac poll showed Obama leading Romney on the question of who would better handle Medicare by 8 points in Florida and 10 points in Ohio. After a few weeks of Ryan charming voters with his budgetary dreaminess, the poll showed Obama leading Romney on the issue by 15 points in Florida and 16 points in Ohio. In a similar vein, Quinnipiac showed Obama struggling mightily with older voters back in August—down 13 points in Florida and 8 points in Ohio among people over 65. By late September, Obama was up 4 among seniors in Florida and 1 in Ohio.
This development was even more damaging to Romney’s prospects than you might initially realize. That's because, even more so than previous GOP nominees, Romney was going to need huge margins among white voters to have any shot at winning. And elderly voters are one of the most reliably Republican groups of whites.
That’s one reason why, when Romney first picked Ryan, I argued that the only possible rationale was to appease conservatives, even though the move could ensure Romney’s defeat. By late September, the Romney campaign had come to this conclusion, too. Ryan vanished into endless debate-cramming sessions. Other than rallying the campaign’s most hardcore supporters, the only time he emerged from his undisclosed location (and you thought they only got those after the election) was to hold fundraisers in electorally critical states like Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. When the Romney campaign ran ads, the wingman they showcased wasn’t Ryan. It was Ohio Senator (and vice presidential also-ran) Rob Portman.
The Pinochet-style disappearance of Ryan kinda, sorta worked. By late October, according to Quinnipiac, Romney was back to leading Obama among seniors in Florida and Ohio.* He’d cut his Medicare deficit back down to a manageable place, presumably on the strength of his first debate performance, where he dishonestly but effectively repackaged the Ryan Medicare plan. According to Tuesday’s exit polls, Romney carried seniors by 17 points in Florida and 12 in Ohio.
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"Paul Ryan Was Not the GOP’s Savior. He May Even Have Been its Albatross." (Original post)
|NYC Liberal||Nov 2012||#1|
Response to applegrove (Original post)
Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:21 PM
NYC Liberal (17,806 posts)
1. No, no, no. Ryan is a huge asset. He helped Romney do better than he would have otherwise.
I would be very worried if he was the nominee in 2016.