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Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:04 PM

Lololololololololol!!!!! Romney campaign unskewed their internal polls

Their chief pollster, Neil Newhouse, took his professional reputation, poured gasoline on it, and set it on fire.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/?pageNum=1&tag=page

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

Those assessments were wrong.


Result:

Romney was stoic as he talked the president, an aide said, but his wife Ann cried. Running mate Paul Ryan seemed genuinely shocked, the adviser said. Ryan's wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly.

"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser. "It was like a sucker punch."

Their emotion was visible on their faces when they walked on stage after Romney finished his remarks, which Romney had hastily composed, knowing he had to say something.

Both wives looked stricken, and Ryan himself seemed grim. They all were thrust on that stage without understanding what had just happened.

"He was shellshocked," one adviser said of Romney.




68 replies, 5684 views

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Reply Lololololololololol!!!!! Romney campaign unskewed their internal polls (Original post)
geek tragedy Nov 2012 OP
TwilightGardener Nov 2012 #1
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #2
KurtNYC Nov 2012 #3
BainsBane Nov 2012 #18
warpigs Nov 2012 #58
craigmatic Nov 2012 #4
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #9
Whisp Nov 2012 #47
LiberalFighter Nov 2012 #5
PsychProfessor Nov 2012 #6
surrealAmerican Nov 2012 #50
Quantess Nov 2012 #68
underpants Nov 2012 #53
Scootaloo Nov 2012 #7
faithfulcitizen Nov 2012 #56
LiberalFighter Nov 2012 #8
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #10
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #12
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #15
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #25
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #30
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #31
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #34
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #35
Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #32
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #36
Whisp Nov 2012 #49
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #52
Avalux Nov 2012 #11
Grateful for Hope Nov 2012 #14
Whisp Nov 2012 #51
Grateful for Hope Nov 2012 #64
Doctor_J Nov 2012 #17
Avalux Nov 2012 #23
BainsBane Nov 2012 #20
LynneSin Nov 2012 #24
Dont call me Shirley Nov 2012 #13
Harry_Scrote Nov 2012 #16
progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #42
southmost Nov 2012 #19
Beowulf Nov 2012 #21
LynneSin Nov 2012 #22
Maximumnegro Nov 2012 #33
high density Nov 2012 #26
Coyotl Nov 2012 #29
rivegauche Nov 2012 #27
Firebirds01 Nov 2012 #28
wrath of medusa Nov 2012 #37
Thrill Nov 2012 #38
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #39
budkin Nov 2012 #40
progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #41
courseofhistory Nov 2012 #43
Gargoyle22 Nov 2012 #44
Azathoth Nov 2012 #45
Arugula Latte Nov 2012 #46
grantcart Nov 2012 #48
Awsi Dooger Nov 2012 #54
geek tragedy Nov 2012 #55
courseofhistory Nov 2012 #57
Cognitive_Resonance Nov 2012 #59
JCMach1 Nov 2012 #60
redwitch Nov 2012 #61
Hercule_Poirot Nov 2012 #62
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Nov 2012 #63
UCmeNdc Nov 2012 #65
mnhtnbb Nov 2012 #66
Corgigal Nov 2012 #67

Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:07 PM

1. Amateur hour on a grand scale.

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Response to TwilightGardener (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:08 PM

2. Dean Chambers may get a job for the 2016 nominee. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:09 PM

3. classic "Bullshit bubble"

Some corporate suits do this -- surround themselves with people who tell them what they want to hear and call anything else "negativity."

It is a dangerous practice for a leader.

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Response to KurtNYC (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:33 PM

18. Exactly. nt

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Response to KurtNYC (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:55 PM

58. Especially the POTUS (EOM)

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:10 PM

4. I don't understand how they didn't see this coming. 2008 wasn't a fluke it was a landslide and we

took congress then too. They seriously underestimated Obama.

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Response to craigmatic (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:14 PM

9. Worse, they failed Polling 101.

Party ID/turnout should not be a subjective input or parameter, ever.

It should be based on empirical observation, not some lame hunch like picking a midpoint between the two most recent elections.

Neil Newhouse, Romney's chief pollster, has flushed his entire career down the toilet.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:04 PM

47. so this Newhouse guy was basically lying to Romney about the numbers?

 

I'm not sure I get this, but am pretty sure I like it.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:12 PM

5. What a pity

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:13 PM

6. Further proof that the guy was unfit

To be president. Can you imagine being so freakingcareless with your own hopes and dreams? Protecting your self from any information that doesn't fit your agenda? Delusional!

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Response to PsychProfessor (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:12 PM

50. Well said, PP.

Unfortunately, I think we all know people like this: they can't admit to facts in conflict with their "vision".

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Response to surrealAmerican (Reply #50)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:36 AM

68. That describes every single religious fundamentalist.

Every single christian who says the earth is only 6000 years old, every single backwards muslim who thinks god gave them the permission to murder gays and adulterous women, and every single nutty mormon who believes in planet kolob and believes magic underwear will protect them.

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Response to PsychProfessor (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:40 PM

53. My wife said the same thing when I told her about this

I am telling you - Fox News and radio has them warped even at the highest levels of their own party.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:13 PM

7. They really had no concept that we wouldn't just hand them the keys

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:33 PM

56. +1

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:13 PM

8. At least the neighbors around Ryan's home in Janesville should be happy he lost.

Talked to someone that saw Secret Service had it barricaded and high security. Making it difficult to get around.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:14 PM

10. A Legitimate Campaign Pollster Would Have Made The Most Small c Conservative Assumptions

A legitimate campaign pollster would have made the most small c conservative assumptions when building a poll...

And couldn't they see something was wrong when all the betting markets made Romney a huge underdog.


Total amateurs...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:16 PM

12. Seriously, professional pollsters were shocked that bloggers

would consider that a valid talking point.

Romney's chief pollster cooked up this voodoo polling.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:20 PM

15. This Would Have Been The First Election In Modern History Where Public Polling

This would have been the first election in modern history where public polling was off to the extent it would have to had been to allow a Romney victory.

We're not talking "Dewey Defeats Truman" or Bush's razor edge 00 victory...


Total fail...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:38 PM

25. What's amazing is that they had ZERO empirical support for this.

None.

Zip.

Zilch.

It was entirely pulled out of thin air.

Romney was supposed to be a numbers guy, and as it turns out he was just a liar, to the point where he lied to himself.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #25)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:49 PM

30. All Real Clear Politics Did Is Accumulate Polls And Average Them

They didn't weight them. They just averaged them and by doing that their final averages showed O winning the pop vote by .07% and winning all the swing states but FL and 303 EC Votes. The only state they got wrong was FL.

As much as I loathe Republicans and question their intelligence me thinks the delusion on many parts of Team Romney was intentional. Nobody that draws a pay check can be that dumb.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #30)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:51 PM

31. It's dumbfounding. This isn't some esoteric thing--it's basic math.

It never occurred to me that their internal polling could be Dean Chambers bad.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #31)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:59 PM

34. Instead Of Operating On The 99.95% Probability That The Polls In Toto Were Right

They were operating on the .05 probability the pols were wrong.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #34)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:01 PM

35. They were like the rest of the dumbfucks on Fox who treat Rasmussen as gospel.

Whatever we want the numbers to be, thats' what they are.

Whether it's tax plans or internal polling.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #25)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:53 PM

32. Racism is all the empirical support you need.

They didn't think the black guy would win twice even if people said they supported him. Plain and simple. Really. Remember Romney is a high ranking bishop in a church that believes black people are inferior as part of doctrine.

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Response to Maximumnegro (Reply #32)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:01 PM

36. White Men Can't Count. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:07 PM

49. but but, were Romney's polls the only ones that were cooked?

 

why was everyone screaming horserace horserace to practically the last minute.

I don't think I'll ever understand that part.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #49)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:32 PM

52. No, that was pundits who don't like math. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:15 PM

11. I have my answer now.

I have always thought GOP leaders were smart, and manipulated their followers with alternate reality and delusional crap, while they remained firmly in reality. Like a game.

Now I know they're in the muck right along with their followers. It's hilarious!

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Response to Avalux (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:20 PM

14. If the article truly reflects their thinking

then I am as surprised as you are. I have given then far more credit than they apparently deserve.

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Response to Grateful for Hope (Reply #14)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:12 PM

51. what if...

 

the GOP just didn't want Romney in to mess up with their 2016 chances and golden boy nominee and got this Newhouse guy to poison the well so bad that Romney will never be a contender or threat to the republicans ever again.

I can't forget how absolutely hated this guy was by his own party, but when he won the primary (or bought it or blackmailed his way into it) they had to fall in line for appearances sake.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #51)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:32 AM

64. Could be.

But the bitterness I am seeing suggests they had high hopes for this idiot. I think the PTB had no idea that the American electoric was able to see through their lies.

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Response to Avalux (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:31 PM

17. Depends on how you define "GOP Leaders"

Someone among them knew they were losing. But Rmoney & Lyin' and Bush are not the leaders. They're just useful idiots like Fox Nation

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Response to Doctor_J (Reply #17)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:37 PM

23. Rove

I'd say he's been a big GOP manipulator for a very long time.

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Response to Avalux (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:35 PM

20. Which is why Romney believed his own propaganda

about the 47% and Libya. It truly is astounding.

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Response to Avalux (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:37 PM

24. They were.....

Ten years they could get away with this shit. But the thing is this - they haven't evolved whatsoever. Their aging supporters are dying out and young voters are flocking to the democratic party.

They need a new schtick!

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:17 PM

13. "And broken are their delusions of grandeur"

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:25 PM

16. Ya'll

Romney/Ryan thought they'd win, b/c the voting machines, and intimidation of voter ID rules would take them to a smoothe victory. That in addition to the moran votes themselves. But, we were on to their schemes the whole time and called them on their B.S. Republican mindset is easy to crack...

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Response to Harry_Scrote (Reply #16)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:38 PM

42. Bingo!! They thought it would be enough, and tho they won't say it publicly...

that was factored into the fantasyland polling numbers they showed internally.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:34 PM

19. always love a good blindsight

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:35 PM

21. "We make our own reality"

That's what Rove said after the 2004 election. Maybe not so much today.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:35 PM

22. THEY BASED THEIR ENTIRE RACE ON THE NATIONWIDE POPULARITY POLLS

Had they followed just the EV votes they would have known they were in trouble.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #22)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:58 PM

33. They based their entire race on race.

They didn't believe he would win. That is the easiest and most simple explanation for buying their own BS. They were convinced 2008 was a novelty fluke and that the uppity house negro would get sent back to the plantation.

If you look at their choices through that lens everything becomes clear.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:40 PM

26. It was all there on the 538 blog

I still laugh at their idea of getting Pennsylvania...

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Response to high density (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:46 PM

29. But, that is some form of evil magic, math and science you know

They threw reality out the window in favor of wishful thinking and self-delusion, a defense mechanism while waging a losing battle.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:40 PM

27. Idiots.

All they had to do was listen to Nate Silver, for MONTHS. Everyone here at DU knew (or was more than 50% confident) that Obama would win. But the repukes stubbornly live in their fantasy world, contrary to all reality. I don't feel one bit sorry for them.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:44 PM

28. this is how its been sicne 2001

 

the reality based community versus whatever the fuck they are. They only listen to their own circle jerk and then demand that be the undeniable truth. Conservatives really believe everything they hear. They think everyone and everything is against them.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:13 PM

37. What a bunch of morans

This reaffirms my belief that the Republican Party is nothing more than a collective of anti-reality racists, bigots, religious zealots and overall delusional sheep. What a pathetic excuse in the 21st century. I'm ashamed that I share a nation composed of such ignorance, and frightened that these people have any say in our political discourse.

To anyone that denies the effectiveness of propaganda, I present you with the results of fauxnoise.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:18 PM

38. Its really not that hard to see why they thought this

They didn't there was any chance Black and Hispanic voters would come out again and vote. Thats the bottom line. They thought 08 was just a fluke

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Response to Thrill (Reply #38)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:20 PM

39. The point is that you're not supposed to take a subjective belief and base your model

on it.

Party ID and turnout is a measurable value--it's one of the things you can learn about from polls.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:33 PM

40. It's called delusion.

The super rich used to getting everything they want, and then not. Meltdown.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:37 PM

41. Not to mention the massive Dem voter suppression that he was assured would help him...

even with the republican governors and Sec of States purging voters, not allocating enough equipment to Democratic areas, deliberate disenfranchising of voters in Democratic area, and all of the filthy Citizens United cash.

That's probably MORE of why they're shocked, They thought they had it in the bag. The elections are never stolen in a grand productions, but they were assured from all States, that enough democrats would be discouraged or unable to vote, that they'd win it. Lets not forget that.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:40 PM

43. Well, boo hoo for them and

can you imagine Romney surrounding himself with advisers who are so out of touch as President? I wondered about the advice he might be getting and his very strange ideas and flip flops. Maybe not all of it was just him. Nonetheless, I very glad he didn't win!!

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:44 PM

44. Republicans "believe" a lot of things but don't know much.

Pretty scary that this nutjob who wasn't able to analyze the simplest of poll data was almost president.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 06:58 PM

45. Even their presidential campaigns are inside the bubble now. That party is doomed.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:00 PM

46. I thought all their poll bluster was pure PR to create a fake image of inevitability & momentum.

I never for a minute thought these numbnuts actually truly BELIEVED their own B.S.!

Also, may I add:

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:06 PM

48. but he got a big bonus

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:23 PM

54. Counting the same voter twice

That essentially what the unskewers were trying to do. A significant chunk of voters stopped identifying as Republican in 2010. I noted it at the time and scrambled for answers. Even in a landslide Republican win the party ID wasn't what it should have been for their side. Finally, many analysts who I respect concluded those were Tea Party -- or nearby -- voters, ones who considered themselves more conservative than the GOP so they preferred to self-identity as independent, almost defiantly.

This year Republican party ID was low but Romney generally led among independents. Hilariously, the desperate unskewers decided they could shove the party ID to equality or nearby, while retaining the Romney lead among independents. As I wrote in the header, it was counting the same voter twice. Once those very conservative "independents" were shifted to Republican party ID, there was no chance the independent pool would remain conservative and very Romney friendly. Every survey indicated Obama would win moderates handily, and he did.

As we learned in 2004, it's always preferable to actually lead the polls instead of molding them to your liking.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #54)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:25 PM

55. One can't cherry pick data points from polls

Most common Republican fallacy was to rely on cross-tabs but ignore top lines of polls.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:45 PM

57. This says it all about how out of touch they were with their anti-abortion garbage and just

about everything else! Losers. And most republicans are apparently not in touch with reality and making excuses for why they lost that are also not reality. The republican party is doomed I'm almost positive because they are loaded with fools!

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:58 PM

59. Believing their own BS...hook, line, and sinker. nt

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 09:58 PM

60. I have been saying it... but it is now official Republicans ARE NOT a reality based party

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:00 PM

61. How could someone that clueless think he could be president of the USA?

Good Lord!

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 10:34 PM

62. "It was like a sucker punch."

"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:18 PM

63. Amazing

Wow. This truly may have been the most inept campaign ever. If you don't know you're losing by a huge amount the day of, you've got problems.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:53 AM

65. This article should be called, "Romney's incompetency cost him the election."

What else do you call someone who hires the wrong people to do the job of basic polling statistics?

Think about just how incompetent a Mitt Romney presidency would be.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:07 AM

66. This is what happens when you deny science...math...fact. SURPRISE!!!!

The world is not flat.

The earth is not the center of the solar system.

The earth is not 6000 years old.

Evolution is not 'just a theory'.

There is climate change.

Hello! Wake up! Facts DO matter.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:30 AM

67. Stephen Colbert is right

it's all about gut and feelings. No damn logic involved and certainly no facts if they change the narrative. Unbelievable. What a damn scary article because you know they play this on the low information voter but who believed they played the same game with the top brass?

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