2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNAFTA - GHWB's Lame Duck Present to the Americas. Will TPP be Obama's Gift to China too?
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http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/13/trump-wrong-nafta-bill-clintons-creation.html
The day after George H.W. Bush, not then-Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton, ceremoniously signed the NAFTA trade agreement, president-elect Clinton reiterated his campaign assertion that there would have to be new job and environmental protections, and safeguards against sudden trade surges, but they could be settled without renegotiating the entire treaty with Mexico and Canada before he submitted implementing legislation. In a statement, still Arkansas Governor Clinton said, I will pursue those other things that I think need to be done in the public interest, then I will prepare implementing legislation and try to pass it in Congress. Those job protections, like job protections today, never materialized in Congress because Republicans.
Now, having just taken an Economies of Developing Nations course, I have posed how NAFTA was a boon to China, as they undercut all provisions in that program, because they are not bound by it TPP is another pact that will not have China onboard, meaning that they will eventually become chief trading partners with most of the countries that we primarily trade with. NAFTA only covers Canada, US and Mexico. The failed FTAA was to include 34 other nations in the Americas, but current individual trade agreements set a similar tone when those other countries are trading with the US.
Described in other posts here:
TPP will give the Pacific Rim to China, just like how NAFTA gave Central & South America to them!
When they move into a country, they don't hire locals for their factories, they bring in labor from the mainland.
NAFTA, while nicely premised with good intentions, has caused 7 Central & South American countries to become chief trading partners with China and 6 more nations are about to shift the bulk of their import-exports from the US to China within the next 5-7 years.
China acts as a mercantile nation. They are not bound by the job, financial, and social constructs of NAFTA. They move into a country and say, deal with us and we won't hold you to the same standards that NAFTA nations do. They then pay people lesser wages and make 10-20 year or more contracts for guaranteed raw materials that China needs to produce its goods for the world. This completely undercuts NAFTA's goals. Then, China sells those finished goods to the same countries below the costs locals or other imports can provide them. This puts locals out of work. Since they have less money, they become even more dependent on Chinese goods.
(This is the same shit that Wal*Mart does. They move into an area, sell their goods lower than other Wal*Mart stores to undercut and drive local businesses out of competition, which causes people to lose jobs. Wal*Mart benefits from low wages, that force people onto government programs--something local businesses cannot do. As people lose their jobs, they have less buying power and rely more and more on Wal*Mart's goods, feeding this vicious cycle.)
This is why China does not sign onto TPP... because they will undercut TPP and walk away with the keys to the kingdom.
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ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)Just as NAFTA's free trade provisions couldn't be "undercut" by China.
However, one thing about this article is true. Obama will almost certainly push his signature initiative after the election with Congress. Why wouldn't he? He's certainly doing so now.
Furthermore - and this is somewhat ironic - the more of a shellacking Democrats give Republicans, the more Republicans will be inclined to pass it. Specifically because Hillary won't sign it, and businesses want it.
With Trump losing badly, Republicans will naturally blame the Racist/Anti-Trade wing of their party for the candidate they foisted off on them, so they'll have every reason to pass it, sticking a thumb in their eye.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
TheBlackAdder
(28,160 posts).
It's easy to write that the goal of TPP is to "blunt China" without it being fully published, but with all US trade deals there are requirements for job, lifestyle and financial improvements for the workers...to raise their standard of living. China is not bound by those, and as such, they can come into a country and offer attractive deals to country leaders and local businesses to deal with them and avoid the red tape that US trade agreements require.
The parts of TPP that were leaked show that they were primarily authored in secret, by industry lobbyists. Again, since China acts collectively, and not as an industry or business, with special needs just for them, they can undermine any restrictions and Millennium Development Goals (MDG) that might be incorporated in the trade agreements.
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ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)It's available here: https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/tpp-full-text
Its provisions weren't finalized, and therefore not published, when Fast Track authority was voted on. But it's there now.
This is a straight up vote. No shenanigans allowed, filibustering or otherwise. (Which I personally believe should be the case for most bills in Congress.)
Read the bill, and decide if you like it. Then, based on your reading of the text, lobby your Senator for your position.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
TheBlackAdder
(28,160 posts).
https://ustr.gov/tpp/outlines-of-TPP
Note: Since this is a government, taxpayer funded document, the excerpt limitation should not apply
The highlighted stuff China will not require, making trade easier with them
o Competition. The competition text will promote a competitive business environment, protect consumers, and ensure a level playing field for TPP companies. Negotiators have made significant progress on the text, which includes commitments on the establishment and maintenance of competition laws and authorities, procedural fairness in competition law enforcement, transparency, consumer protection, private rights of action and technical cooperation.
o Cooperation and Capacity Building. The TPP countries agree that capacity building and other forms of cooperation are critical both during the negotiations and post-conclusion to support TPP countries ability to implement and take advantage of the agreement. They recognize that capacity building activities can be an effective tool in helping to address specific needs of developing countries in meeting the high standards the TPP countries have agreed to seek. In this spirit, several cooperation and capacity building activities have already been implemented in response to specific requests and additional activities are being planned to assist developing countries in achieving the objectives of the agreement. The TPP countries also are discussing specific text that will establish a demand-driven and flexible institutional mechanism to effectively facilitate and cooperation and capacity building assistance after the TPP is implemented.
o Cross-Border Services. TPP countries have agreed on most of the core elements of the cross-border services text. This consensus provides the basis for securing fair, open, and transparent markets for services trade, including services supplied electronically and by small- and medium-sized enterprises, while preserving the right of governments to regulate in the public interest.
o Customs. TPP negotiators have reached agreement on key elements of the customs text as well as on the fundamental importance of establishing customs procedures that are predictable, transparent and that expedite and facilitate trade, which will help link TPP firms into regional production and supply chains. The text will ensure that goods are released from customs control as quickly as possible, while preserving the ability of customs authorities to strictly enforce customs laws and regulations. TPP countries also have agreed on the importance of close cooperation between authorities to ensure the effective implementation and operation of the agreement as well as other customs matters.
o E-Commerce. The e-commerce text will enhance the viability of the digital economy by ensuring that impediments to both consumer and businesses embracing this medium of trade are addressed. Negotiators have made encouraging progress, including on provisions addressing customs duties in the digital environment, authentication of electronic transactions, and consumer protection. Additional proposals on information flows and treatment of digital products are under discussion.
o Environment. A meaningful outcome on environment will ensure that the agreement appropriately addresses important trade and environment challenges and enhances the mutual supportiveness of trade and environment. The TPP countries share the view that the environment text should include effective provisions on trade-related issues that would help to reinforce environmental protection and are discussing an effective institutional arrangement to oversee implementation and a specific cooperation framework for addressing capacity building needs. They also are discussing proposals on new issues, such as marine fisheries and other conservation issues, biodiversity, invasive alien species, climate change, and environmental goods and services.
o Financial Services. The text related to investment in financial institutions and cross-border trade in financial services will improve transparency, non-discrimination, fair treatment of new financial services, and investment protections and an effective dispute settlement remedy for those protections. These commitments will create market-opening opportunities, benefit businesses and consumers of financial products, and at the same time protect the right of financial regulators to take action to ensure the integrity and stability of financial markets, including in the event of a financial crisis.
o Government Procurement. The text of the Government Procurement Chapter will ensure that procurement covered under the chapter is conducted in a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory manner. The TPP negotiators have agreed on the basic principles and procedures for conducting procurement under the chapter, and are developing the specific obligations. The TPP partners are seeking comparable coverage of procurement by all the countries, while recognizing the need to facilitate the opening of the procurement markets of developing countries through the use of transitional measures.
o Intellectual Property. TPP countries have agreed to reinforce and develop existing World Trade Organization Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) rights and obligations to ensure an effective and balanced approach to intellectual property rights among the TPP countries. Proposals are under discussion on many forms of intellectual property, including trademarks, geographical indications, copyright and related rights, patents, trade secrets, data required for the approval of certain regulated products, as well as intellectual property enforcement and genetic resources and traditional knowledge. TPP countries have agreed to reflect in the text a shared commitment to the Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health.
o Investment. The investment text will provide substantive legal protections for investors and investments of each TPP country in the other TPP countries, including ongoing negotiations on provisions to ensure non-discrimination, a minimum standard of treatment, rules on expropriation, and prohibitions on specified performance requirements that distort trade and investment. The investment text will include provisions for expeditious, fair, and transparent investor-State dispute settlement subject to appropriate safeguards, with discussions continuing on scope and coverage. The investment text will protect the rights of the TPP countries to regulate in the public interest. ?
o Labor. TPP countries are discussing elements for a labor chapter that include commitments on labor rights protection and mechanisms to ensure cooperation, coordination, and dialogue on labor issues of mutual concern. They agree on the importance of coordination to address the challenges of the 21st-century workforce through bilateral and regional cooperation on workplace practices to enhance workers well-being and employability, and to promote human capital development and high-performance workplaces.
o Legal Issues. TPP countries have made substantial progress on provisions concerning the administration of the agreement, including clear and effective rules for resolving disputes and are discussing some of the specific issues relating to the process. TPP countries also have made progress on exceptions from agreement obligations and on disciplines addressing transparency in the development of laws, regulations, and other rules. In addition, they are discussing proposals related to good governance and to procedural fairness issues in specific areas.
o Market Access for Goods. The TPP countries have agreed to establish principles and obligations related to trade in goods for all TPP countries that ensure that the market access that they provide to each other is ambitious, balanced, and transparent. The text on trade in goods addresses tariff elimination among the partners, including significant commitments beyond the partners current WTO obligations, as well as elimination of non-tariff measures that can serve as trade barriers. The TPP partners are considering proposals related to import and export licensing and remanufactured goods. Additional provisions related to agricultural export competition and food security also are under discussion.
o Rules of Origin. TPP countries have agreed to seek a common set of rules of origin to determine whether a product originates in the TPP region. They also have agreed that TPP rules of origin will be objective, transparent and predictable and are discussing approaches regarding the ability to cumulate or use materials from within the free trade area in order to make a claim that a product is originating. In addition, the TPP countries are discussing the proposals for a system for verification of preference claims that is simple, efficient and effective.
o Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS). To enhance animal and plant health and food safety and facilitate trade among the TPP countries, the nine countries have agreed to reinforce and build upon existing rights and obligations under the World Trade Organization Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The SPS text will contain a series of new commitments on science, transparency, regionalization, cooperation, and equivalence. In addition, negotiators have agreed to consider a series of new bilateral and multilateral cooperative proposals, including import checks and verification.?
o Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). The TBT text will reinforce and build upon existing rights and obligations under the World Trade Organization Agreement on Technical Barriers, which will facilitate trade among the TPP countries and help our regulators protect health, safety, and the environment and achieve other legitimate policy objectives. The text will include commitments on compliance periods, conformity assessment procedures, international standards, institutional mechanisms, and transparency. The TPP countries also are discussing disciplines on conformity assessment procedures, regulatory cooperation, trade facilitation, transparency, and other issues, as well as proposals that have been tabled covering specific sectors.
o Telecommunications. The telecommunications text will promote competitive access for telecommunications providers in TPP markets, which will benefit consumers and help businesses in TPP markets become more competitive. In addition to broad agreement on the need for reasonable network access for suppliers through interconnection and access to physical facilities, TPP countries are close to consensus on a broad range of provisions enhancing the transparency of the regulatory process, and ensuring rights of appeal of decisions. Additional proposals have been put forward on choice of technology and addressing the high cost of international mobile roaming.
o Temporary Entry. TPP countries have substantially concluded the general provisions of the chapter, which are designed to promote transparency and efficiency in the processing of applications for temporary entry, and ongoing technical cooperation between TPP authorities. Specific obligations related to individual categories of business person are under discussion.
o Textiles and Apparel. In addition to market access on textiles and apparel, the TPP countries also are discussing a series of related disciplines, such as customs cooperation and enforcement procedures, rules of origin and a special safeguard.
o Trade Remedies. TPP countries have agreed to affirm their WTO rights and obligations and are considering new proposals, including obligations that would build upon these existing rights and obligations in the areas of transparency and procedural due process. Proposals also have been put forward relating to a transitional regional safeguard mechanism.
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ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)...you can trade with China. Try to get them to buy things from you.
But if you want to sell things to the US, you're going to have to adhere to certain standards.
I mean, I do admit, if you want to buy goods made using slave labor and toxic processes, it may be hard for you in the US after the TPP is passed. So there is that. But I personally have little fear that countries that have voluntarily signed on to the TPP agreement are going to pass up the US market simply because of that.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
TheBlackAdder
(28,160 posts).
All of them have trade agreements with the US &EU that push Millenium Devvelopment Goals while also having trade pacts with China. The trading with the US and EU often is at the corporation level, whereas China overshadows those with 10-30 contracts for multitudes of goods. These are not dependent on the whims of corporations, the cancellation of contracts, etc.
Sure, there is a tradeoff, whether it is on the social, financial or environmental side, but the monies and lack of managerial overhead and compliance, the lack of inspectors and open recordkeeping are just some of the strong incentives to deal with China. That does not take into consideration the guarantee of income and employment.
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ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)It's only bad if it lowers US standards and/or our standard of living.
Trade agreements are, by definition, win-win.
The only reasonable critique of them is whether a particular agreement is "win-win" between the upper class of nations, or win-win between everyone.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
TheBlackAdder
(28,160 posts)ConservativeDemocrat
(2,720 posts)Ask the British after the post-Brexit economic crash if maintaining barriers on economic activity helps or hurts the economy. The answer is fairly clear.
To be clear - there can be bad trade deals. But any "point" saying that trade itself is bad, is flat out wrong.
- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community
stuffmatters
(2,574 posts)dem in texas
(2,673 posts)The Dallas Morning News has been running articles about NAFTA and how it has benefitted Texas and the terrible effect on the Texas economy if NAFTA were to be repealed as Trump wants to do. Texas is the largest exporting state by far. And Texas' largest exporting customer is Mexico Texas exports are not all oil related, instead a good mix, such as heavy equipment, car parts, electronics just to name a few.
Yes, China sells the most in cheap Walmart and Dollar General type goods, but there is a huge market for other types of goods. What the US needs to do is better educate their work force so more complex items can be produced. This is what Germany did and it took a while, but it turned their economy around.
TheBlackAdder
(28,160 posts).
There is more to North America, and especially the United States, than Texas Import-Export. And, for a state newspaper tout their economy is based on shipping trade to countries that produce cheaper goods that are re-imported into this country, placing other American workers out of jobs is a sin. My father's manufacturing company used to get offers from Mexican firms to provide welding and other fabrication services at $4-6/ per hour. Their big selling point, besides the price, was that there would be no OSHA, Insurance, and Medical demands on his company. Now, like how Nabisco foods just sent 1,000 union jobs to Mexico, to be performed by people who make $4 per DAY, not hour--but day, is really a crime. They are being paid at a rate that is three times above international extreme poverty levels for developing nations. While import-export might be a boon, low-level manufacturing all the way through skilled-labor jobs have probably taken a hit, since the transport and management is right over the border.
The second paragraph, while plausible to a degree, is a relatively impossible goal since one of the political parties wants to limit education. Poorly educated citizenry not only cuts down on property taxes, but it also creates a pool of voters who lack critical thinking and are more easily controlled. The situation we are seeing right now. The bias levels of a community diminishes when the population is more worldly and educated. This leaves out the whole "faith-based" learning centers and charter schools morass. The education of citizens is contrary to the Republican party's objectives, as they preach the Constitution all the while cutting civics courses from their school districts.
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