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Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:27 PM

2012 was not a huge turnout election (for either side)

Total vote of Two Party Candidates

2004:
Winner 62 million Loser 59 million

2008:
Winner 69.5 million Loser 60 million

2012:
Winner 61 million Loser 58.4 million
(results as of 11/7 plus 1%)

2012 was only 92% of 2008. It was a million and change lower turnout than 2004, and with a bigger eligible population, so a notably smaller % turnout than '04. (Romney got less votes than Kerry, and Obama less than Bush)

There are several reasons for the lower turnout. Sandy, voter discouragement, hyper-targeted emphasis on swing states, and lower national enthusiasm for Obama.

But the Right Wing was just as disenchanted as 2008 Obama supporters were. THAT is the story. America did not run out of white people, they simply did not vote. Romney got fewer white voters than McCain.

7-8 million white people who voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home. They did not switch to Romney. They just didn't vote. Story of the election, IMO.

Obama got 8.5 million fewer votes than in 2008. It is astonishing that we won with a 12% drop-off. But Romney got a 1.4 million fewer votes than John McCain did in 2008.

The Republican trend is down: 62M in 2004, 60M in 2008, 58.4M in 2012.

The reports of this or that demographic turning out in the same numbers as 2008 were clearly distorted reporting. The same percentages turned out, but not the same numbers.

Since Obama got only 88% of his 2008 vote, the black vote and youth vote for Obama that were said to be holding steady in terms of percentage of the vote, versus 2008, had to be significantly lower in raw numbers than in 2008.

The black vote held steady at 13% from 2008 to 2012, so Obama received about 1.3 million fewer black votes this year.

Hispanics were significant because they were about the only group that voted as much as in 2008. They made up 10% of the vote in '12 versus 9% in '08, but the electorate was only 92% as large so that's close to a wash. The significance of the Hispanic vote was not that it was larger, but that everyone else's vote was smaller, and that Obama got an even higher percentage of that demographic in '12 than in '08.

The overall theory that Obama's vote would drop off a lot from 2008 was correct. But Romney really sucked.

So models of the electorate did not under-estimate turnout of Obama demographics. They over-estimated the white turnout. They missed that the white vote would be as down as all the rest of the vote. The electorate looked much like 2008, but smaller.

Romney won 4% more of the white vote than McCain did but got fewer actual white votes. Whites were 72% of the 2012 electorate so there were 86 million white voters. Obama got 39% of those = 34.3 million. In 2008 whites made up 74% of the electorate. Obama got 43% of those 95.8M votes = 41.2 million.

Obama got about 7 million fewer white votes than in 2008.

Romney got about more than a million fewer white votes than McCain did.


The turnout in the swing states was unusually concentrated. Turnout in the big three was lower than 2008, but still strong. (These 2012 numbers include 99%+ of the vote)

Ohio 2008:
Obama-2,940,044 McCain-2,677,820
Ohio 2012:
Obama-2,686,609 Romney-2,586,467

Virginia 2008:
Obama-1,959,532 McCain-1,725,005
Virginia 2012:
Obama-1,885,188 Romney-1,772,304

Florida 2008:
Obama-4,282,074 McCain-4,045,624
Florida 2012:
Obama-4,143,362 Romney-4,096,346

19 replies, 2163 views

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply 2012 was not a huge turnout election (for either side) (Original post)
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 OP
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #1
sweetloukillbot Nov 2012 #2
arthritisR_US Nov 2012 #7
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #9
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #8
robinlynne Nov 2012 #3
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #5
WCGreen Nov 2012 #4
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #6
Quiet_Dem_Mom Nov 2012 #10
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #11
sweetloukillbot Nov 2012 #17
FrenchieCat Nov 2012 #12
TBF Nov 2012 #13
Polldancer2012 Nov 2012 #14
yashoo Nov 2012 #15
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #16
WI_DEM Nov 2012 #18
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #19

Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:34 PM

1. Magic republican voters?

2004: Bush 62 million >> 59 million Kerry

In the 2004 election Bush got 62 million. This was before the public became aware of the E-vote machines and the evidence points to millions of computer generated Bush votes.

Your numbers corroborate this evidence of a stolen election in 2004.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:34 PM

2. How much of the lower turnout can be attributed to Sandy?

I'm sure New York and New Jersey's numbers were down significantly. Don't know how much they'd make a difference though.

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Response to sweetloukillbot (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:47 PM

7. I would agree and add in there voter suppression.

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Response to arthritisR_US (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:48 PM

9. Yes, particuarly reduced early voting

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Response to sweetloukillbot (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:47 PM

8. I agree that Sandy has to be a factor.

Also, the hyper-targeting of swing states was a factor. Swing state turnout dropped off less, relatively, than elsewhere.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:35 PM

3. At least 5 states are still counting their votes. All states are still counting provisionals.

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Response to robinlynne (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:39 PM

5. As anticipated by the 1% adjustment in the OP

The numbers of votes still drifting in are not large pools of votes. The OP accounts for more than a million uncounted votes.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:38 PM

4. I really believe the constant and relentless attacks on president Obama made a lot

of people tune off on politics.

In 2008, people were propelled by the historic nature of the campaign and Bush fatigue.

And there is also a very big let down from the rhetoric of 2008 and reality of 2012.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:45 PM

6. As well as

the increassed targeting of only the swing states, and Sandy.

Of course there are reasons for it.

But the mythology that Obama got as many black or youth voters as 2008 is unsupportable.

If I had to tell the story of 2012 in one demographic observation, I would say that that 8 million unhappy white people who had voted for Obama in 2008 did NOT vote for Romney. They simply did not vote.

And that is why we won, IMO. Romney turned a bunch of white males against Obama, but not toward Romney.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:07 PM

10. OK, which of you OTHER states dropped the turnout ball! NV @ 80.56%!





http://www.silverstateelection.com/vote-turnout/

Statewide:

2012 General Election Total

Active Registered Voters
1,257,621

Election Day Turnout
309,157 (24.58%)

Early Turnout
619,381 (49.25%)

Absentee Turnout
84,657 (6.73%)

Total Turnout

1,013,195 (80.56%)

=====

In 2008, NV got 80.09% turnout. 2004 was only at 77.66%!

Here's a few county turn-out statistics:

--> Clark County (LV area) total turn out -- 80.97% (80.08% in 2008)

-->Washoe County (Reno) total turn out -- 77.53% (78.07% in 2008)

--> Carson City total turn out -- 90.74 % (91.40% in 2008)


It'd be interesting to see the other states' turnout statistics.

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Response to Quiet_Dem_Mom (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:24 PM

11. The swing states held up much better

This campaign was SO targeted.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 03:39 PM

17. I thought I read that AZ was only slightly over 50%...

Don't remember where though.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:58 PM

12. I think that some votes were shaved off.....

by Rove (just not enough),

and I think that all of the votes have not yet been added to the tally,
i.e., absentee ballots, provisional ballots, etc.....

The count my grow by a couple of million if not more before this is all over.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:05 PM

13. I wonder how many of the 300,000,000M folks in the US are eligible to vote?

If only 120,000,000 voted that leaves so many unaccounted for. Felons, children ... what would those numbers be?

It would really be interesting if we found out a full half of the country doesn't even bother to vote.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:49 PM

14. Very clearly detailed

 

How many whites stayed home because Romney was LDS?

How many whites were offended by the 47% comment and Romney's "outoftouchness"?

I hate to say it... But Santorum or Pawlenty or Perry or Cain would have out performed Romney and may have even won.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:51 PM

15. romney got less white votes

because they are dying off

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Response to yashoo (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 03:08 PM

16. that is not the reason

Older white voters are dying off, but that was not the reason 8 million fewer white people voted in 2012 than in 2008.

10% of white people did not die in the last four years.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:28 PM

18. When all the votes are in Obama will have about 63 million.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #18)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:14 PM

19. What is that based on?

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