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Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:22 PM

Poll: Latino Vote Devastated GOP Even Worse Than Exits Showed

Mitt Romney lost Latinos by unprecedented margins — even worse than the initial exit polls showed — according to a study by Latino Decisions.

An election eve poll of 5,600 voters across all 50 states by the group, which has researched the Latino vote throughout the campaign, concluded Obama won by an eye-popping 75-23 margin. Their research concluded that CNN’s exit poll estimate of 71 percent of Latinos breaking to Obama likely undercounted their support, although they agreed with the assessment that turnout equaled 10 percent of the electorate.

“For the first time in US history, the Latino vote can plausibly claim to be nationally decisive,” Stanford University university professor Gary Segura, who conducted the study, told reporters.

According to Segura, the Latino vote provided Obama with 5.4 percent of his margin over Romney, well more than his overall lead in the popular vote. Had Romney managed even 35 percent of the Latino vote, he said, the results may have flipped nationally.

more:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/poll-latino-vote-devastated-gop-even-worse-than-exits-showed.php?ref=fpa

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply Poll: Latino Vote Devastated GOP Even Worse Than Exits Showed (Original post)
DonViejo Nov 2012 OP
lz1122 Nov 2012 #1
jaseycake Nov 2012 #4
lz1122 Nov 2012 #6
jaseycake Nov 2012 #7
genna Nov 2012 #13
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #2
StrongBad Nov 2012 #3
libdem4life Nov 2012 #5
StrongBad Nov 2012 #10
FrenchieCat Nov 2012 #8
StrongBad Nov 2012 #9
genna Nov 2012 #14
Komiko Nov 2012 #11
AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #12
genna Nov 2012 #15
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #16
calico1 Nov 2012 #17
TroyD Nov 2012 #18
justiceischeap Nov 2012 #19

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:29 PM

1. Will the western strategy hold and beat the southern strategy?

I've been saying years ago that the Democrats need to adopt a western strategy. States like Colorado and Nevada are going to be more regularly in play due to numerous factors... latinos moving to those states, I meet folks from the northeast that move out there.

When you look at the map, even if Romney would've won Ohio, Virgina, and Florida.. Obama still wins by holding the states Democrats are expected to win as well as taking Nevada and Colorado.

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Response to lz1122 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:47 PM

4. spot on.

it's really telling to know that obama could lose the "big" states that everyone was clamouring over — VA, FL, and OH — and still win the election based on the smaller states of CO and NV.

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Response to jaseycake (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 07:04 PM

6. I've been living in Miami for 8 years...

Today on the news they were talking about how votes are still be counted and Florida hasn't been called. They also were saying that even though Florida gained some electoral votes has it lost some standing since at this point it doesn't matter who the state goes for. I agree with you that it is amazing that Obama or any candidate for that matter in this scenario could loose some big states and still win.

I think that 270 is the number you need and at the end of the day it doesn't matter how you get there. In the past if you told me we were to loose Ohio and Florida I'd pretty much say it's going to be a long tough night. I really would enjoy to continue Ohio and Florida but it is nice to know with the changing demographics that it is still possible to win without the two big swing states on your side.

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Response to lz1122 (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 07:08 PM

7. i definitely agree.

it's a really good change now that influence is spreading to states that almost never saw any. i expect that some of the more moderate red states in the midwest may start to turn a bit purple. instead of being blank cheques for electoral votes to the GOP, they will expect a return on what they give.

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Response to lz1122 (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:38 AM

13. It is why Dean's 50 state strategy made sense

Those native Americans in the Dakotas save the Democratic Senators bacon.

At some point, Democrats will recognize the fully undermined resources it has available to it. These people have all our hopes and dreams. When we recognize it, we have a solid coalition.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:33 PM

2. The sleeping giant sleeps no more! nt

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:36 PM

3. Why were Latinos cool with W. but all of a sudden flipped against McCain and Romney?

Did the GOP suddenly become more xenophobic between '04 and '08? Seems like they've had the same immigration policies since at least 2000.

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Response to StrongBad (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 06:54 PM

5. Florida/Eastern Hispanics and South/Southwestern/Western Hispanics vary greatly.

Two very different cultural experiences. The influx from Cuba is limited, but the influx from Mexico and the Americas is pretty much unlimited. One tends Republican, the other Democrat. McCain and Jan Brewer represent Arizona...white Arizona.

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Response to libdem4life (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 09:43 PM

10. Good point. Interesting to think about.

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Response to StrongBad (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 07:15 PM

8. If you don't recall.....

Bush offered up an Immigration policy that was rejected by his White Base.....

but he did try.

Meanwhile, McCain walked away from his prior sensible immigration stance during the
2008 primaries, which is when Latinos, who never supported the Republicans by that much to begin with
started fleeing the Republicans and supported Obama in 2008 instead....and continued this year based
on the Republican demonistic stance against immigration.

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 07:28 PM

9. Thank you. That was helpful.

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Response to StrongBad (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:47 AM

14. Believed Bush saw them as whole people

There are different groups within the community. Some of them are churchgoers like African Americans. I think they fell for the stereotypes about Democrats and thought they were in a party with like minded values centered around faith.

When Bushies were discovered to be making fun of people of faith and disrespecting their beliefs, they realized their practice of their religion was different than the Republicans. As it is now, it is understood African American churches preach different messages than these conservative evangelical churches preach to their Republican congregations. The Sisters on the bus this election cycle gave me faith that Latinos will experience the same difference.

Also, who wants to be dehumanized, stereotyped, and condescended to?

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 10:44 PM

11. Arizona has not counted 500,000 latino votes

latinos forced to fill out provisional ballots which have still not yet been counted, this story is breaking

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeff-biggers/breaking-arizona-outrage-_b_2090237.html

http://www.promiseazaction.org/fair_election_system

https://www.facebook.com/PromiseAZinAction

Joe Aiparo country, anyone surprised?

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Response to Komiko (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 11:07 PM

12. Welcome to DU, Komiko!

And yeah, I'll be posting this elsewhere myself real soon..........

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Response to Komiko (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 07:50 AM

15. No, not surprised but very ANGRY

The Republican machine failed 2 cycles in a row.

Now that the Justice Department knows how badly the franchise was treated, what are they going to do about it?

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:00 AM

16. For the first time ever, the GOP lost the Cuban-American vote.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-exit-poll/FL/President

Pres. Obama won Cuban-Americans in Florida 49-47. This is the beginning of the end of the GOP reign in Florida.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:25 AM

17. Bush actually had a good immigration policy.

And for all his faults (which are many) he isn't a racist.

This campaign was virulently racist against minorities, but especially Latinos. And most of us felt it to the core.

Why would I want to vote for a Party that hates me and doesn't think I have equal standing as a human being?

I don't think so..

Let them continue campaigning like this. They will never win a major election again. This election proved that we vote, and we aren't stupid, as they thought.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:31 AM

18. Latino Decisions had been predicting a 70%+ vote for Obama for months

I saw it time and time again when I posted the polls here.

The GOP had advance warning of what was coming, so it's their own fault if they didn't pay attention.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 08:33 AM

19. Self-deportation vs. Dream Act

When you have an obvious divide between how the 2 parties are going to deal with your community, the choice is easy.

When the Republic primaries were on-going and you had candidates advocating electrified border fences, and just the overall vitriol towards the Latino community... which, some have rightfully pointed out in this thread, are not all the same. Yet the Republics see them as all one entity and they start with a losing hand, with no real in-roads to win over the community. When the Republic party was so obvious in their attempts to suppress the minority vote, they add to their losing hand.

Watching this campaign and the party overall since the Tealiban inception, you can see the map leading to this loss. The fact that they're even surprised at this point is what is most shocking.

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