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Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:32 PM

How difficult will 2014 be?

Victory. And already, my democrat friends have found something to be worried about. Sigh. I'm not sure of the math, but my friend says 2014 is in trouble senate wise. How true is that, especially with the pick ups, and what's it looking like for the house?

If we are in trouble for 2014, Obama needs to appoint any SCOTUS justices BEFORE 2014.

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Arrow 23 replies Author Time Post
Reply How difficult will 2014 be? (Original post)
ashtonelijah Nov 2012 OP
leftyohiolib Nov 2012 #1
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #2
JustAnotherGen Nov 2012 #3
GitRDun Nov 2012 #4
Marsala Nov 2012 #5
Agnosticsherbet Nov 2012 #6
Cosmocat Nov 2012 #7
Robbins Nov 2012 #8
shawn703 Nov 2012 #9
Floyd_Gondolli Nov 2012 #10
bushisanidiot Nov 2012 #11
UofIDem Nov 2012 #12
neverforget Nov 2012 #13
tabbycat31 Nov 2012 #19
UofIDem Nov 2012 #20
karynnj Nov 2012 #22
Hutzpa Nov 2012 #14
Mr.Turnip Nov 2012 #15
UofIDem Nov 2012 #16
JRLeft Nov 2012 #17
nobunnyclue Nov 2012 #18
Blaukraut Nov 2012 #23
Ken Burch Nov 2012 #21

Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:39 PM

1. i think there are 20 dem seats up for re-election

 

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:41 PM

2. 2014 will be tough....

but for today, I am just going to enjoy this historic election.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:42 PM

3. Let's put that on the back burner

Until January. We have a 'fiscal cliff' situation to deal with at this time with this Congress.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:42 PM

4. 20 D's are up 13 R's

7 Democrats declared they are running for re-election.
13 Democrats have yet to declare.
5 Republicans declared they are running for seeking re-election.
8 Republicans have yet to declare.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:43 PM

5. I'd be very worried about holding the Senate if it wasn't for the last two elections

Last four, really. Republicans have become TERRIBLE at winning Senate seats. Mainly because they flush them away.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:43 PM

6. 20 Democrats and 13 Republicans in the Senate...

so that will make it a difiuclt year because we have more to defend.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:45 PM

7. oh, for fucks sake

More with the balling around about bad news for Ds.

Up until about a month ago the media was all breathless and it was a given that the republicans were going to take the senate, it was just a given.

The Ds ended up getting a small increase in their margin.

The greater risk here is for the republicans.

If the House acts like the asshats they are for the next two years, every stinking D can be up for reelection in the senate and they might make gains.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:49 PM

8. Oh please

The economy will be In better shape come 2014.Republicans won't have weak economy to run on and when their dire warning about
Obama don't come true It will take away that card.Most presidents only have 1 bad midterm.Exception was Reagan.Dems picked up 26 house seats In 1982 and took back the senate In 1986.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:50 PM

9. We will again be defending more seats than the Republicans

20 seats to the Republicans' 13. 6 seats are in red states and 6 are in swing states.

But I wouldn't worry much just yet. We held in 3 red states and 3 swing states. I think we could learn from McCaskill and the elections from the last two cycles and support some O'Donnells, Angles, Akins and Mourdocks in primaries so we can hold on to seats in the general.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:51 PM

10. A walk in the park

 

Not really but we will have a popular Democratic president presiding over an economic recovery on our side.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:52 PM

11. If we can get the DREAM ACT passed, we win the House back.

period.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:55 PM

12. Looked at that this morning...

I think we are going to have a bunch of folks running right (Blues in Red leaning states):

AK (Begich)
AR (Pryor)
LA (Landrieu)
MT (Baucus)
NC (Hagan)
SD (Johnson)

Some of those obviously are better positioned than others, but they are the most likely to hitch their wagon to the republicans on issues through 2014. Others didn't have particularly strong showings last time out and could be targeted:

OR (Merkely)
NH (Shaheen)
MN (Franken)
CO (M. Udall)

And PPP had some polling showing that Rockefeller and Harkin may have credible challengers (early to say that though, imo)

Lastly we may have an issue if Kerry goes SoS in the O second term. Brown will probably run again, he's popular and there isn't, to my knowledge, another Warren available.

The safe seats look like:

DE (Coons)
MI (Levin)
NM (T. Udall)
NJ (Lautenberg)
RI (Reed)
VA? (Warner)

Hopefully none of those get competitive.

On the other side, not sure that there is a ton of prime red targets (only 13 red against our 20 blue up for reelection). Chambliss in GA? Collins in ME? McConnell? Someone may get tea-partied and we might pick up a Lugar-type seat, but unless somethings shifted significantly from 6 yrs. ago, there aren't a lot of vulnerable targets, or targets at all, in fact. Somehow we are playing defense again in the Senate.

It's early to worry about the 2014 election to be sure, not as early to worry about how these guys represent us in the next two years. We will need their votes to defeat filibusters and we may not get them if they run scared to the right.

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Response to UofIDem (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 01:29 PM

13. Pretty sure that Merkley (OR) is safe

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Response to UofIDem (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:30 PM

19. nj's seat will be interesting

For all intensive purposes it will be treated as an open seat. Lautenberg will be 90 and higher ups in both parties have their eyes on the seat

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Response to tabbycat31 (Reply #19)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:37 PM

20. Geez..

Let's not expand the target list, huh? Fortunately republicans don't have a deep bench in NJ, but we may have end up facing some backlash from CC's strong performance after Sandy and after his support of the President. The President will have to tread lightly going after him or someone he endorses.

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Response to UofIDem (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:40 PM

22. If Brown runs and becomes Kerry's replacement, he will have to run in 2014

and one of the strongest things against him this year was that he would vote for McConnell. That will still be against him. The fact is that there are other MA Democrats that could run a good race. (Oddly one could result in the MA Senators being Warren and (Setti) Warren. )

Lautenberg, who is in 80s, might not run, so this may be an open race.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 01:31 PM

14. Where are you guys getting this stuff from?

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 02:10 PM

15. Depends on how robust the recovery is at that point.

Begich in Alaska will be the hardest seat to defend I think.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 03:05 PM

16. Agreed...

I think that is definitely right. I just hope everyone knows what they are doing if Kerry goes SoS. Brown is formidable as a candidate. He's organized and has name recognition and any appointed replacement for Kerry won't have time to find the bathroom in the Senate, let alone get set up for a race by June. I'd hate to give one back so quickly. Call me crazy, but I'm not counting on those Southern Dems not caving on the top bracket increases if push comes to shove with the fiscal cliff.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 03:07 PM

17. I stated today we need to start working on 2014 in a few weeks.

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 03:23 PM

18. It was mentioned in several circles that the Republican "victory" in the house

... was not due to the success of their candidates, but the success of their redistricting efforts. They basically drew themselves a bunch of entirely secure districts suited to their "particular" demographic.

I think it is going to very hard to take back the house for the next 10 years but not impossible. The key is both economic and geographic mobility for African Americans and Hispanics. Also with young women voters, we have to stop their indoctrination into the no-choice cult by making sure public education can stand up to the challenges of vouchers for private parochial schools and the rest of the Repukes little war on public schools.

And in the meantime, its time to put the pressure on state governments to enact serious reforms about how redistricting will be handled in 10 years!

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Response to nobunnyclue (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:45 PM

23. The house is the problem, definitely. Gerrymandering is incredibly undemocratic. n/t

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Response to ashtonelijah (Original post)

Wed Nov 7, 2012, 04:40 PM

21. Depends on how obstructionist the R's choose to be.

If they KEEP sayin "Hell no, we won't let that uppity (centrist) get anything done", the voters will get sick of it, and that will both help us hold the Senate and maybe even end the Boehnerhaus.

This is their last chance to be bipartisan...if they refuse to, Obama and the party can bash the "Do-Nothing GOP HOUSE" and the obstructionist GOP Senate minority.

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