Monday update: Nate Silver improves Obama’s odds again
The president's likelihood of re-election ticks even higher in the influential New York Times blog
BY DAVID DALEY
President Obamas supporters can feel 1 percent better this morning.
Influential numbers-cruncher Nate Silver pushed Obamas chances of being re-elected up to 86.3 percent this morning on his New York Times blog fivethirtyeight. Thats up from 85.1 percent on Sunday.
Its also the best number Obama has scored in Silvers model which weighs state and national polls in a complex formula that also takes into account accuracy and historical performance since he climbed to 87 percent prior to his sleepy performance in the first debate in Denver.
Silver also added to Obamas likely number of electoral votes on Monday. He now sees the president winning 307.2 to 230.8 for Mitt Romney, a tiny tick higher than he saw the race on Sunday.
He also sees Obama capturing the popular vote, taking 50.6 percent to Romneys 48.5.
But where Silver gives, he also takes away. The Monday update slightly lowered the odds of Democrats retaining control of the Senate, to 91.5 percent. Thats down 1 percentage point from Sunday. Nevertheless, Silver still sees the Democrats holding at least 52 seats in the Senate.
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http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/monday_update_nate_silver_improves_obamas_odds_again/