CNN Poll: White vote - 57% Romney, 40% Obama

[TroyD]

What are your thoughts on this demographic breakdown?

Doesn't Romney need to be at 60% to win?

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/50971607ebcabf0e460000be

[scheming daemons]

1. if Obama get 38% of whites, he wins

[geek tragedy]

2. That's enough for us, assuming minority turnout is sufficient. nt

[RichGirl]

3. Proud to be one of the 40%

[anneboleyn]

17. amen sister. (btw is your d.u. name a reference to the great Hall & Oates tune?)

We love that song...awesome.

[Alekei_Firebird]

4. That's a great split

Romney needs to be above 60% and for Obama to be sub-40%

[ejbr]

5. 61%, I believe n/t

[tbennett76]

6. At 74 percent white IMO

BALLGAME!

[WI_DEM]

7. Obama got 43% of the white vote in 2008, if these numbers hold it could be 40-41%

with a strong African-American vote and strong Latino vote the president should win. Some polls suggest that Obama may get a higher Latino vote than '08 and just as strong a black vote.

[kerouac2]

8. The stupid white people are really making...

us smart white people look bad...

[Cha]

18. I say they're making themselves look bad and

we're looking good and way smart!

[rurallib]

9. I may get my ass kicked for this

but my race is so dumb sometimes.

[msrizzo]

10. If Obama is at 40% I believe that's what he needs to win. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. With 08's Electorate If He Received 40% Of The White Vote He Would Have Still Won By Four/nt

[pkdu]

12. Caucasians , and I'm one , are now a "minority" (in numbers only)...

Romney needs more than 60% and future Republicans will need increasingly more as that demo is older and dying out in every way .

[frazee]

13. Romney's only 54 percent of the white vote in

the Pew poll, and it's a much larger sample.

[TroyD]

15. Good point

This is just the CNN poll number, so Romney's number may be worse in other polls, like Pew. I guess we'll get a better idea by averaging them together.

Does Nate Silver have a way of breaking down demographics? Does he have numbers for the White vote, Latino vote etc.?

Here's the full CNN poll, btw:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

[frazee]

16. I don't know how Nate's algorithm works,

and I don't even know if he's made it public. I know he considers more than just the polls, though.

Never seen him discuss demographics in any detail.

[trublu992]

14. If this based on early voting I think these are good numbers

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. He needs 66% to win. McCain got 64%.

[TroyD]

20. I don't think McCain's number was that high

Was it?

I thought McCain's number was about 58%.

Anyone know?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. You're right. Wasn't that high. It was 55% for McCain. I think I quoted Dumbya's number.

[democrattotheend]

23. Yeah, but McCain lost by 7 points

Romney needs to do much better than McCain did among white voters, unless minority turnout is down significantly from 2008.

[democrattotheend]

22. That's good, I think

CW says Obama needs 40% of the white vote to win. I'd feel better if he were at 42, but 40 is a lot better than 37.

[TroyD]

25. And apparently Obama's number in Pew is better than CNN

What is the Pew number for the white vote? I think I read that it's higher for Obama than in CNN.

[democrattotheend]

27. Not sure, but ABC had it at 41% in their final poll

[animalcrackers]

24. I wish they would clarify "white vote" better

like:

1) Do you have furniture laying on your lawn?

2) Do you have more guns than books in your house?

3) Are the wheels on your truck larger than your IQ?

4) Do you think Obama is a Communist, muslim, gay space man?

5) Who won the civil war?

Personally, I like drag racing, have kept an engine block (and my favorite rims) in my house during off season, and work in the oil field, have attempted to make my own alcohol, and couldn't imagine a better president than Barack Obama (btw I'm a white male)

[smitra]

26. I am pretty sure the majority of the junior level college class I teach is voting for the President.

The class is 100% white male, aged 20-24. Of course, I am in New York state -- still, this is upstate NY, where in the next Congressional district, the Dem and Rep are tied.

Btw, I am not white.