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Thu Mar 8, 2012, 03:05 PM

New Poll... Obama leads by 23 points in Maine

From PPP.


Obama now leads Romney 58-35 in Maine.

From the Poll.


"Maine pretty well represents the significant upgrade Barack Obama's seen in his reelection prospects over the last four months. When PPP polled there in late October he led Mitt Romney by only 11 points, 49-38. That represented a 6 point tightening from Obama's margin of victory over John McCain there in 2008. Since then Obama's Maine lead has more than doubled to 23 points at 58-35 against Romney, representing a 6 point improvement on his 2008 numbers.

Full info here:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-standing-much-improved-in-maine.html



In my opinion this is important for two reasons. First, with the President polling well in Maine, this means the battle-ground state of New Hampshire can't be that far behind. The probability that Obama could be leading in Maine, Massachusetts, and Vermont by 20 points or more, but trailing in New Hampshire seems unlikely.

Secondly, this means Obama will have coat-tails for the a Democratic or Independent Senate candidate to ensure a Democratic pickup in the Maine Senate race. (Although it would appear King who will run as an independent in Maine is doing just fine at the moment.) Still, hopefully Obama's strength in the Northeast, which currently is equal or greater than it was in 2008, can help another Senate candidate like Warren in Massachusetts.


As I mentioned in another thread, PPP polling was the most accurate pollster for predicting Super Tuesday results two days ago.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 03:09 PM

1. With the explosive release of the 91 Obama tape...

probably another 2% bump in polls next week.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 03:33 PM

2. That's good, but it will no doubt get a little tighter in the next few months.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 04:55 PM

3. What is up with Warren? She burst onto the scene looking very competitive. What has Brown......

done to endear himself to MA, besides voting for the Blunt Amendment? I admit, I don't get it.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 06:31 PM

4. What you don't get

is that Massachusetts has more independents than Dems or Reps.

And those folks are not turned off enough by Brown to turn on him in great enough numbers to give Warren the lead. He gets all of the republicans, and a good chunk of the independents, and that's enough to hold her off.

She's going to have to find a way to get the latter more on her side to win.

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Response to qazplm (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 06:45 PM

5. She even had a small lead for a time. With the president doing so well in MA, I'm hoping he can....

bring her along. I don't know what more she can do to attract Independents.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 08:12 PM

6. Warren's numbers have been a HUGE disappointment


She trails Brown by anywhere from 7-10 points. Several polls have been done. They all yield the same results. She is behind. She is the underdog. This is shocking to me. But as I have posted here several times, women historically have had a very difficult time winning statewide office in Massachusetts. I believe no woman has ever won state-wide office there, which is amazing given its progressive reputation. These facts are more fitting for a deep southern state, but not Massachusetts.

As I said in the OP, I am hoping the President's coat-tails on election day will be enough to carry Warren across the finish line. The fight for the Senate is going to be tight. Months ago, most assumed this seat would be a Democratic pick up. Buts its not looking that way now. Without a pickup here, its going to be very tough to hold the Senate in 2012.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 08:33 PM

7. I mostly agree with you except on one point.

"I believe no woman has ever won state-wide office there, which is amazing given its progressive reputation. These facts are more fitting for a deep southern state, but not Massachusetts."

Let's not forget the candidate who bungled her campaign so badly she allowed Brown to become a US Senator in the first place, Martha Coakley, was elected statewide as Attorney General in both 2006 and 2010.

You are correct in that no woman has been elected US Senator or Governor in Massachusetts yet, although Jane Swift and Kerry Healey were both elected Lieutenant Governor (and Swift was briefly Governor although not elected to that position).

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Response to Alexander (Reply #7)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 08:59 PM

8. I stand corrected.


Although I was referring to US Senator or Governor. You are technically correct.

I don't live in Massachusetts. So I don't know the real story behind Coakley. All I have done is read reports saying she ran a terrible campaign.

But I LOVE Elizabeth Warren.

And this is a very blue Democratic state.

As of this summer (most recent numbers available) the Democratic Governor had a 54% approval rating statewide.

Currently the Democratic President is running 20 points ahead of the GOP.

And yet Warren is running 7-10 points behind Brown? That's roughly a 25-30 point swing between the Senate race and her most comparable Democratic counterparts! Is Warren really that bad too?



Scott Brown must be the most amazing campaigner in state history to be doing so well against this kind of head wind.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 10:12 PM

11. I have no idea what is happening with Warren, but this bothers me too.

I take some small consolation in the fact that the election is still 8 months away and Obama's coattails can help Warren achieve a victory.

I also hope Brown's vote on the Blunt Amendment is going to get lots of publicity in this race and that Warren will hit him hard on that.

Sometimes it helps me to remind myself that polls this early out mean very little. Just ask President Dukakis.

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Response to Alexander (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 10:40 PM

12. Agreed. Good point.


We have to remember, most people aren't paying attention to politics right now. Technically, I don't think Warren has even secured the Democratic nomination. Lets see what happens in a couple of months. I bet (or am hopeful) that right now Brown has a much higher name ID than Warren.

If Obama carries this state say 57-43, I can't imagine Brown being re-elected to the Senate.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #8)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 06:10 AM

15. Sometime, IMHO, no matter how perfect a candidate is in ideology, if they lack pizzazz, they will

not attract voters. No matter how great she is in every other way, she has little charisma, to
me, anyway.

And another thing about MA (I spent years working in Boston)...people are not as liberal as everyone
thinks. In fact, there are tons of repuke-minded people up there. I think CT is much more
liberal.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 09:38 PM

10. What groups in MA can get out the female vote?

Brown has got to go.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 09:37 PM

9. Seems like a gender thing

Or finances

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 11:24 PM

14. I had hoped that her high national profile would make her a shoo-in. As Alex said.....

we're still eight months out, so lots can happen there. With the president & other high profile Dems stumping for her, I'd like to think she can still pull this off.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2012, 10:49 PM

13. "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" n/t

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Response to Mister Ed (Reply #13)

Sun Mar 11, 2012, 02:06 PM

16. Except in 1936

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