NC 11/3 Obama is Crushing Romney with Sporadic, Unlikely, and New Registrant Voters

[grantcart]

MattTX at DailyKos has updated and expanded his thorough examination of what is happening in NC.

The bottom line is that the President's early votes show that the GOTV has excelled in getting sporadic and new voters while Romney is mostly shuffling regular voters to vote early. President Clinton and First Lady Obama are both on their way to North Carolina.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/03/1153749/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-16-Obama-is-Crushing-Romney-with-Sporadic-Unlikely-and-New-Registrant-Voters

Specifically, as I define them, 56.7% of the people who have voted so far are likely voters. But those 56.7% of voters contribute only 20% of Obama's estimated vote margin. The remaining 80% of Obama's estimated margin comes from where it matters - from the 43.3% of voters who fall into the categories of Sporadic, Unlikely, and New Registrant Voters.

. . .

First of all, the polls show a very close race in North Carolina (unless you believe Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing).

Over roughly the past two weeks, PPP has found North Carolina tied not once but twice, and Elon University has also found a tied race. Civitas and High Point University have both found Romney up by only one point.

As we all remember, Obama was down in just about every poll in NC in 2008, but he won anyway thanks to OFA's superior ground game, which converted "unlikely voters" into actual voters.


. . .

Whether Obama is ahead by 142,623 votes, 256,611 votes, or by some other number of votes, we know that more White Republicans have voted early in 2012 than in 2008. But that means that there are fewer White Republicans left over in the pool of 3,427,143 active registered voters, from which our roughly 2 million election day voters will be drawn. Are there enough White Republicans left over for Romney to make up Obama's early vote lead and win?


. . .

The problem for Mitt Romney is that even if ALL 381,106 Likely Voting White Registered Republicans vote, and even if ALL 381,106 of them vote for Romney, that only gets Romney 381,106 votes, which is not nearly enough. In order to win, he will need, as a rough minimum, about 1.1 million votes. So that by itself does not get Romney where he needs to be.


. . .

Obama has a large pool of potential voters to draw from. As we noted, 38.5% of Likely voters who have not yet voted are White Republicans (WR) and 41.7% of Likely Voters who have not voted are either African American, Other Minorities, or White Dems (AA/OM/WD).

But once we move past Likely voters, the share of White Republicans plummets and the Democratic advantage balloons.

[John2]

1. I

can add this is what I expected all along. Actually PPP has done 29 Polls in all during the 2012 election in North Carolina, and not one of them has shown North Carolina other than a tossup. 29 Polls is very consistent. For Pollsters to say Republicans will out do Democrats on Election day because of 2008, the math doesn't add up when you see Democrats have a huge registration advantage over Republicans in North Carolina. Then what could be the explanation for 2008 on election day?

Well, this could be one explanation, President Obama built up such a large lead in early voting in 2008, a lot of Democrats simply did not take the time to vote on election day. Democrats had 2,880,000 estimated registered voters in 2008 but President Obama only got 2,142,000 votes while Republicans exceeded their total registered numbers in 2008 by only a few thousand. That is the only reasonable explanation I can see. So the Democrats need to come out to vote just like they did in early voting. If they do, Obama will win.

[Esse Quam Videri]

2. One needs to go back and look at the historical voting in NC

Do not assume that because they are registered as Democrats that the people will vote Democratic when it comes to the presidential election. It just does not happen. 2008 was the first year that NC went blue for a presidential election since..... I don't know when.

[oswaldactedalone]

3. One of the X factors in NC is

the percentage of indies voting for Robme. Also, a fair number of registered Dems are DINOs in this state so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Dems face an uphill climb in NC but the ground game is amazing.