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2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts) Sat Nov 3, 2012, 08:47 AM Nov 2012

0

I Usually Look At Aggregates But A +2 Poll For O In FL And A -6 Poll At The Same Time Is Odd

That's a eight point difference. I hope the former is right.

+6, really...

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

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I Usually Look At Aggregates But A +2 Poll For O In FL And A -6 Poll At The Same Time Is Odd (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 OP

Huh? The differential is -4 (+6 in OH, +2 in FL). nt geek tragedy Nov 2012 #1

He means mason Dixon and NBC/wsj polls of FL smorkingapple Nov 2012 #2

Yeah, All The Other Pollster Are Indicating A Much Tighter Race Than Mason Dixon In FL/nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #3

M/D is an outlier. Has trouble polling Latinos. geek tragedy Nov 2012 #6

The chief complaint about M=D +6 Mitt in FL is they under counted non-Cuban hispanics WI_DEM Nov 2012 #4

TY DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #5

Someone else pointed out sample size. fugop Nov 2012 #7

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

1. Huh? The differential is -4 (+6 in OH, +2 in FL). nt

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 08:58 AM

Nov 2012

smorkingapple

(827 posts)

2. He means mason Dixon and NBC/wsj polls of FL

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:00 AM

Nov 2012

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)

3. Yeah, All The Other Pollster Are Indicating A Much Tighter Race Than Mason Dixon In FL/nt

Reply to smorkingapple (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:05 AM

Nov 2012

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

6. M/D is an outlier. Has trouble polling Latinos.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:16 AM

Nov 2012

Very well could be that it's actually Romney +1, which would make the NBC poll still much closer.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

4. The chief complaint about M=D +6 Mitt in FL is they under counted non-Cuban hispanics

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:07 AM

Nov 2012

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)

5. TY

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:16 AM

Nov 2012

South Florida is home to many Cubans, Venezuelans, and Brazilians. Central Florida is home to many Dominicans and Puerto Ricans. That seems to be an an easy sample problem to avoid. Just ask them their nationality in addition to their racial identification. And make sure your regional sub samples are correct.

fugop

(1,828 posts)

7. Someone else pointed out sample size.

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 09:17 AM

Nov 2012

Can't be sure but I think MD was 600, vs. maybe 1,200 for Marist?

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