Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

yellowcanine

(35,693 posts)
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:27 PM Nov 2012

Obama now has a chance to "run the table" on the swing states.

Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

With the other states he is leading in this gives him 347 EV. IMO NC will be the toughest one this time around so I am sticking to my prediction of 332 EV. But on the other end of things I still think the Latino vote could pull in both NC and Arizona for Obama. So he could top out at 358.

If things really get crazy, other states to watch are Montana, South Carolina, Georgia and Missouri.

This may seem really optimistic but it is quite clear that Obama is expanding the EV map as we get closer to Nov 6. And Romney had a really bad week, he doesn't know how bad yet imo. The Jeep thing is really going to bite him, particularly in Ohio but in other states as well where it reinforces the perception that Romney will say anything to get elected. Independents are going to break heavily for Obama over that.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Obama now has a chance to "run the table" on the swing states. (Original Post) yellowcanine Nov 2012 OP
If he takes Ohio or Florida, Romney is pretty much toast. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2012 #1
Post removed Post removed Nov 2012 #2
I am leaving him out because he will not be much of a factor. yellowcanine Nov 2012 #5
Good courseofhistory Nov 2012 #3
I don't know about NC, and Obama could win FL if that state Phx_Dem Nov 2012 #4
There is a backlash going on right now in FL against Rick Scott for voter suppression. yellowcanine Nov 2012 #6
Why do you say he has a chance to run the table? Where's the evidence at this point? ffr Nov 2012 #7
Because he is leading in every one of those states except in NC and there he is very close or yellowcanine Nov 2012 #8
Sorry, not trying to offend ffr Nov 2012 #9

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
1. If he takes Ohio or Florida, Romney is pretty much toast.
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:36 PM
Nov 2012

If he takes both Ohio and Florida, Romney can not win at all.

Taking them would be an incredible victory.

Response to yellowcanine (Original post)

courseofhistory

(801 posts)
3. Good
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:43 PM
Nov 2012

deal! Also, Obama can win even minimally:

4 states

i Ohio (18) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 271

sColorado (9) + L Iowa (6) = 275s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + d New Hampshire (4) = 273

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 272

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270

s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270

s Virginia (13) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 271

5 states

v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 272

http://apps.npr.org/swing-state-scorecard/

Phx_Dem

(11,198 posts)
4. I don't know about NC, and Obama could win FL if that state
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:45 PM
Nov 2012

wasn't full of election stealers. But since it is, I don't know about FL either. It'll probably be like 2000 when they found boxes of ballots washed up on beach, in trash bins, and in the trunks of Republicans cars.

yellowcanine

(35,693 posts)
6. There is a backlash going on right now in FL against Rick Scott for voter suppression.
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 01:00 PM
Nov 2012

People are determined to vote no matter what. In fact, I believe the voter suppression backlash will be felt in a number of other states. Pennsylvania for sure and probably Ohio as well.

ffr

(22,665 posts)
7. Why do you say he has a chance to run the table? Where's the evidence at this point?
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:22 PM
Nov 2012

We only know so much at this stage. We don't have exit polling data to make EV results valid. So until every vote is cast, Romney is a potential victor.

How does President Romney and VP Ryan sound?

Let's keep the fight going all the way into election day, so we don't lose sight of our objective.

yellowcanine

(35,693 posts)
8. Because he is leading in every one of those states except in NC and there he is very close or
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:30 PM
Nov 2012

tied. "Chance" means just that. Of course it is not a certainty. Stating an opinion based on current polling doesn't mean we give up the fight and "lose sight of our objective." The two are not mutually exclusive. Ease up already.

ffr

(22,665 posts)
9. Sorry, not trying to offend
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 04:28 PM
Nov 2012

...just don't want DU'ers to get all dreamy and starry eyed when there's a lot of heavy lifting yet to do.

I'm a little intense right now at making sure everyone's on message and driving ballot casting home. Not satisfied with good results. I want the best possible results and I'd like the GOP war machine crushed.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Obama now has a chance to...