2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama now has a chance to "run the table" on the swing states.
Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
With the other states he is leading in this gives him 347 EV. IMO NC will be the toughest one this time around so I am sticking to my prediction of 332 EV. But on the other end of things I still think the Latino vote could pull in both NC and Arizona for Obama. So he could top out at 358.
If things really get crazy, other states to watch are Montana, South Carolina, Georgia and Missouri.
This may seem really optimistic but it is quite clear that Obama is expanding the EV map as we get closer to Nov 6. And Romney had a really bad week, he doesn't know how bad yet imo. The Jeep thing is really going to bite him, particularly in Ohio but in other states as well where it reinforces the perception that Romney will say anything to get elected. Independents are going to break heavily for Obama over that.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)If he takes both Ohio and Florida, Romney can not win at all.
Taking them would be an incredible victory.
Response to yellowcanine (Original post)
Post removed
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)Wishful thinking on your part, imo.
courseofhistory
(801 posts)deal! Also, Obama can win even minimally:
4 states
i Ohio (18) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 271
sColorado (9) + L Iowa (6) = 275s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275
s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + g Nevada (6) = 275
s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + d New Hampshire (4) = 273
s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 272
s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + L Iowa (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270
s Virginia (13) + v Wisconsin (10) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 270
s Virginia (13) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) = 271
5 states
v Wisconsin (10) + F Colorado (9) + L Iowa (6) + g Nevada (6) + d New Hampshire (4) = 272
http://apps.npr.org/swing-state-scorecard/
Phx_Dem
(11,198 posts)wasn't full of election stealers. But since it is, I don't know about FL either. It'll probably be like 2000 when they found boxes of ballots washed up on beach, in trash bins, and in the trunks of Republicans cars.
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)People are determined to vote no matter what. In fact, I believe the voter suppression backlash will be felt in a number of other states. Pennsylvania for sure and probably Ohio as well.
ffr
(22,665 posts)We only know so much at this stage. We don't have exit polling data to make EV results valid. So until every vote is cast, Romney is a potential victor.
How does President Romney and VP Ryan sound?
Let's keep the fight going all the way into election day, so we don't lose sight of our objective.
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)tied. "Chance" means just that. Of course it is not a certainty. Stating an opinion based on current polling doesn't mean we give up the fight and "lose sight of our objective." The two are not mutually exclusive. Ease up already.
ffr
(22,665 posts)...just don't want DU'ers to get all dreamy and starry eyed when there's a lot of heavy lifting yet to do.
I'm a little intense right now at making sure everyone's on message and driving ballot casting home. Not satisfied with good results. I want the best possible results and I'd like the GOP war machine crushed.