Can Tester hang on in Montana?

[BainsBane]

If so, the Democrats should pick up a seat in the Senate rather than losing any in a year when most pundits thought it impossible for us to defend our vacancies without a loss.

[DURHAM D]

1. Have you seen any numbers lately?

I have not.

[BainsBane]

2. Only on RCP

RCP Average 9/17 - 10/14 -- 46.3 46.0 Rehberg +0.3
Rasmussen Reports 10/14 - 10/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie
PPP (D)* 10/8 - 10/10 737 LV 43 45 Tester +2
Mason-Dixon 9/17 - 9/19 625 LV 48 45 Rehberg +3

[DURHAM D]

3. I like PPP.

Jon has been in some close ones before. I hope he comes through.

[Tutonic]

4. TPM Scoreboard

has Tester up 1.4. ALso I think that includes Scottie Ras--so yes Tester is leading and with good Democratic turnout will get reelected.

[DURHAM D]

5. Yeah.

I really like organic farmers.

[BainsBane]

6. Great! Thanks for the info. nt

[Jbradshaw120]

7. Yes I think so

I live in billings mt and my job takes me from glendive to Libby basically 1 side of the state to the other. Earlier in the year I was beginning to get worried, but as the campaign has progressed I feel much better about his race and Steve bullocks race for governor. Rehberg recently started running adds with Romney rehberg witch tells me rehberg is running behind Romney and I expect that to continue. I think Jon will win similar to 2006 in a 49-48-3 with the three for the libertarian. Recently saw a tv add for the libertarian I think ran by the league of conservation voters under the PAC for hunters and anglers. I expect this to happen and when it does MT Dems wil really owe Tester for riding us of both Rehberg and his 2006 opponent Burns. Hope this helps.

[progressoid]

12. Excellent!

Thanks!

[Texas Lawyer]

8. Worst case, we lose 2 seats; best case, we gain 2 seats - we hold majority either way

I think we probably hold at 53 or maybe pick up 1 additional seat.

Thank You Tea Party -- without your help, we would not have won in Indiana!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. I'm worried about Steve Bullock for Governor. Any latest numbers on that race?

[Jbradshaw120]

10. Well about 10 minutes after I posted

My earlier response I saw a Lee Enterprise poll showing Rick Hill up 49-46. Not sure. That concerns me a bit, but my feeling on the ground is bullock is doing good. A state district judge just ruled that he violated state campaign contribution limit by taking a $500,000 contribution from the state Republican Party when state law limits it to $22,600. So not sure. Poll seems to under count independents but I am not an expert pollster. But in my gut I expect bullock to win a narrow victory.

http://m.billingsgazette.com/mobile-touch-2/?disableTNStatsTracker=1#fc15146b-d133-5b0e-b51b-e16435d9fd02

[WI_DEM]

11. Rasmussen has a poll showing Tester up by 1 in Montana

[outsideworld]

13. Rass just released a poll show tester up by one, meaning he is wayy ahead

[BainsBane]

14. Fantastic!

Hopefully we'll pick up some House seats as well.