Pennsylvania folks - talk to me about Casey vs Smith

[Tree-Hugger]

I see signs for Smith and hear his ads constantly all day on the radio. I also get a ton of his ads on YouTube. He seems like a pretty scary guy and not one I want in any type of power in my state. What are his chances of winning against Casey? I am having trouble finding any reliable info. I can't ask anyone around here because they all sip the tea, ya know?

[Pab Sungenis]

1. Electoral-vote.com has it as Democratic.

Casey 49, Smith 42. I think it's safe.

[Tree-Hugger]

3. Thank you! nt

[Sugarcoated]

2. I'm just a Philly burbs mom who follows politics and the news obsessively

so I know more than the average Josephine, but all I can tell you is Bob Casey's dad was a very popular governor back in the day, so the name is very liked and well known. Polls that I've seen, for the most part, have had a decent, but not huge, lead for Casey. There have been a few, very close ones popping up all along, but they're not the majority. Have you seen any lately? If the last one was super tight, and there've been no other polls to compare it to, I'd be suspicious of it.

[Tree-Hugger]

4. Same here

I was young when his dad was around (I think he died when I was a teen) and I know people liked him. I am pretty good at following the national stuff, but I find that I suck when it comes to having a handle on all the local political news. I'm in the Philly burbs, too. I'm originally from Philly, so coming to my area of the burbs was a wee bit of a culture shock because there is a lot of RW lunacy here. I haven't seen any polls that I would trust - only things that I've heard from heavily RW biased sources. It seems the only time I hear him spoken about in the media is on 1210 by the Rush wannabes, so I definitely don't trust that.

[noel711]

5. Tom Smith is a Mitt Wanna-be..

all his ads propound:

"Tom Smith is a successful businessman,
not a Washington insider.
He'll create jobs, and clear out all the red tape."

My ass he will....

Another phony rich guy who wants to get his hands
on control..

People remember governor Casey.
With fondness.
Bob Casey is a gentleman committed to public service.

[Tree-Hugger]

11. I don't remember Casey

but I know many people really liked him. I am Catholic, went to Catholic school and grew up in a Catholic neighborhood. Everyone seemed to like him.

[modrepub]

6. Couple of more points

Casey will probably do well in NE PA (where his family is from), Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties. Smith's abortion position probably is close to his party though Casey is also pro life. I'd expect Casey to do relatively well in the 4 counties surrounding Philly since most women in these counties are on the liberal side. I expect Smith to do well in SC PA and most of the rural areas. Keep in mind Repub candidates get more votes in Phila County than they do in the 1-2 dozen of the more rural counties in PA. Casey is Catholic and there are lots of Catholics in PA so he will probably do well with this group.

Smith made his money in the coal industry but that industry is not overly powerful in PA anymore (and most of the old coal fields are acutally in Casey's back yard, NE PA). Also keep in mind the Natural Gas Industry is gaining political clout in PA and has stealthfully supported actions that are hostile to the coal industry.

I expect Casey to win though not by more than 10%.

[Tree-Hugger]

10. Nice breakdown - thank you. :-) nt

[ChetSinger]

7. Casey's been taking this race for granted, but should still win

I think Casey will win, but not by a large margin. I think he's been taking this race for granted, is not advertising, and is not generating much enthusiasm. He's also not been very visible as a senator.

Smith should be a nobody, but Casey's lack of energy has created an opening for him. It will be close, but I believe Casey will prevail.

I wish he were a little more like his father, though. Being strongly pro-life, he carried even Republican counties like Lancaster.

[Tree-Hugger]

12. I agree about the advertisements

There has been one Casey ad that runs on KYW, but it's all I've really seen or heard. Ir's a good ad, though.

[AlinPA]

8. I've never seen so many ads and yard signs. He is running a campaign like Corbett and Toomey;

started early and bombarded the TV with ads. Hs ads all start off with bashing the President, then Casey (they all do that) and ends up talking about how he was a miner and created jobs, blah , blah, blah. It might hurt us if Casey does not respond in the next 5 days. Casey has been very low key and his ads are wimpy compared with Smith's. I don't know about E. PA, maybe they don't see many Smith ads, but W. PA is flooded with them.

[ChetSinger]

9. I'm in Lancaster and we see Smith's ads here

Populated with laid-off coal miners.

[Tree-Hugger]

13. Tons of signs

They are all over the place here. There are way, way more signs for Tom Smith than for Romney or any other Republican. And they all seem to be accompanied by other signs saying, "Casey + Obama = 16 Trillion." I wish Casey was more agressive.

I was checking out some YouTube vids the other day and an ad came on for Tom Smith telling us how he is going to fight to make sure we use all of PA's natural resources. That is downright scary! Corbett is already screwing this state enough.