2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNational Journal Poll: Obama 50, Romney 45
This final Congressional Connection Poll before the Nov. 6 election found that among likely voters, President Obama has reopened a slim advantage over Mitt Romney
The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,010 adultsincluding 713 likely voters by cell phone and landlineon Oct. 25-28. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
Overall, the survey found Obama leading Romney among likely voters by 50 percent to 45 percent, after the two tied at 47 percent each in a late-September Congressional Connection Poll.
In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).
http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/anger-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,010 adultsincluding 713 likely voters by cell phone and landlineon Oct. 25-28. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)On the eve of the first debate they were knotted up 47-47. I remember that poll. Right wingers will be shitting themselves. Their philosophy stinks. Now their odor will match their philosophy.
PsychProfessor
(204 posts)This is what I am talking about. Wow!!!!!!!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Never. And if there was a split it would be fairly insignificant like 2000.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)And this poll doesn't reflect the Sandy bounce.
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)And more in some of the close swing states.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)helpisontheway
(5,004 posts)Cosmocat
(14,558 posts)I had picked 5 or so polls and tracked the analysis of them over the last few months.
I swear I have seen the word SLIM 100 times, and every stinking time it was for the President and never once for Romney.
outsideworld
(601 posts)VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)A 5 pt win by either candidate would be a landslide victory.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)Makes more sense.
imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)Johnny2X2X
(18,968 posts)Just another data point that indicates an Obama win next week. The case is getting stronger to conclude that Obama will win rather handily.
imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)MORE!