PSA: Pay No Attention to Articles Claiming Clinton Leads in Oregon!

[silvershadow]

Public Service Announcement:
New Articles Claiming Clinton Leads
in Oregon Are Lies

Greetings, my friends! This is just a quick Math Vs. Media Public Service announcement — please pay no attention to the flood of “news” that is claiming that Clinton leads in the Oregon polls. All of them are based off of the same crappy survey — a crappy survey of a mere 304 “likely voters,” 2 of which said they weren’t voting, knocking that down to 302 people.

The survey does not even state that these 302 are democrats (the only group that can vote in the Oregon democratic primaries) and, because they’re listing the surveyed people as “likely voters,” not “registered voters,” one can only assume that the company, “DHM Research,” which conducted this “survey,” either
a.) Knows that some of them aren’t registered
or
b.) Doesn’t know whether they are registered or not.

Furthermore, the survey does not reveal its methodology — I’ve searched their website and can’t even find information about whether it was a landline, cellphone, or internet survey! (In their FAQ, they state that they use internet surveys & cell-phone surveys).

At the very least, even if we assume that the 302 people are registered democratic voters and that it was’t an internet survey, we’re looking at about a 9-10% margin of error (±7% for the sample size and ±2-3% for using cell-phones), which is more than the survey says Clinton leads by. Therefore, the survey could potentially mean the opposite of what it says it means. I have called “DHM Research” repeatedly to inquire further but they have not picked up.

more: https://johnlaurits.com/2016/05/11/psa-pay-no-attention-to-articles-claiming-clinton-leads-in-oregon/

[MADem]

1. Well, this poll has nine hundred people....not three hundred...

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.

Ooops.


This link has the same number polled--nine hundred and one: http://q13fox.com/2016/05/10/new-polls-shows-likely-voters-favoring-clinton-over-sanders-in-oregon-week-before-democratic-primary/


I think that blogger you are citing needs GLASSES....or a more recent poll.

[Renew Deal]

2. You should delete this post for inaccuracy

I have doubts about the poll too, but the post has been completely refuted

[NCTraveler]

3. OR is Sanders ground.

But this article is an absolute joke. Goodman worthy.

[thesquanderer]

4. Also, "likely voters" is generally seen as MORE predictive than "registered voters."

Likely voters are typically those who have voted in the recent past. Which means not only are they registered, but they actually currently vote. The place LV might be weak is in determining how/whether to count those who have not voted in past elections only because they were not yet of age, and how that relates to the fact that younger voters skew heavily toward Bernie.