Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election: empirically validated, not an opinion

[Bill USA]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

Republican turnout is up and Democratic turnout is down in the 2016 primary contests so far. That has some Republicans giddy for the fall; here’s an example, from a March 1 Washington Times article:

Republicans continued to shatter turnout records in their presidential primaries and caucuses Tuesday, while Democrats lagged behind in what analysts said was a clear indication of an enthusiasm gap heading into the general election.

And some commentators are saying that Democrats should be nervous. From The Huffington Post, last month:

But Democratic Party elites shouldn’t be high-fiving each other. They should be very, very worried. In primary after primary this cycle, Democratic voters just aren’t showing up.

But Democrats shouldn’t worry. Republicans shouldn’t celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.
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[jamese777]

1. Yep

Primary Elections Popular Vote Toals as of May 8, 2016
Hillary Clinton: 12,561,272
Donald Trump: 10,717,357
Bernie Sanders: 9,446,660

About 135 million people are expeced to vote in November.

[NurseJackie]

5. Bernie's bringing up the rear.

Looking at these numbers, he's not doing very well at all. In my opinion, he's a weak candidate.

[truedelphi]

2. Hillary Clinton winning the Illinois Primary represented

One out of very eight Illinois registered voters. And Bernie, who came in second, represented something like 90 percent of one individual out of eight voters.

The entire primary system needs to be overhauled. Especially given that most Americans are not in love with either party.

The parties both combined together have a total of 48% of all Americans being enthused about them.

The middle class has learned a lesson that 12 million foreclosures and a loss of over 16 trillions of dollars in economic clout has so carefully taught them: It is mostly all One Big Money Party.

[AgingAmerican]

3. True, she will get slaughtered in the general

Because she wont' have Debbie Wasserman Schultz to grease the skids for her

[Bill USA]

4. Hillary Clinton's gonna getcha!!!!!

[Bill USA]

6. interesting how pure conjecture gets more attention than empirically based conclusions

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1934194