ARG national poll: Obama 48% (+1) Romney 48% (-1)

[WI_DEM]

Interview dates: October 25-28, 2012

Sample size: 1200 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

National Presidential Ballot
Obama Romney Other Undecided

Likely voters 48% 48% 1% 3%

Democrats (39%) 89% 7% 1% 3%
Republicans (33%) 5% 91% 1% 3%
Independents (28%) 41% 54% 2% 4%

Men (48%) 41% 56% 1% 2%
Women (52%) 54% 40% 2% 4%

18 to 49 (46%) 51% 44% 2% 3%
50 and older (54%) 45% 51% 1% 3%

White (77%) 39% 57% 1% 3%
African American(12%) 96% 3% - 1%

Oct 18-21 47% 49% 1% 3%
Oct 11-14 47% 48% 1% 4%
Oct 5-8 47% 48% 1% 4%
Sep 27-30 49% 46% 2% 3%
Sep 17-20 49% 47% 1% 3%
Sep 4-6 46% 49% 2% 3%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NA12.html

[Jennicut]

1. Oh uh. ARG not following the Repub meme of Romentum.

May get blasted by Repubs online.

[VirginiaTarheel]

2. Huge Gender Gap

[TroyD]

3. Didn't realize they did national polls

So far I've only seen their state polls.

[TroyD]

4. 77% White?

Isn't that an oversampling of White voters? I don't think the country is as high as 77% White. Isn't it more like 73%?

And how come there are just Whites and AA's listed? I don't see any Latinos.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The 73% Figure Is Correct

I see lots of polls indicating the race is tied or essentially tied. I wonder how much of these tied polls are a function of pollsters looking at what each other is doing and conforming their numbers accordingly.

[woolldog]

6. or maybe whites are more energized than usual

this time around?