2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie should get out now while the getting is good.
Seems to me Bernie's political clout is about a high as it going to be and will drop off significantly as he loses most of the remaining states. June 7 could be a real disaster if he loses NJ, NM and CA all on the same day. Winning the tiny delegate states of ND, SD, & MT will be seen as meaningless compared to those 3 big delegate states he will likely lose.
Bernie has more leverage now to negotiate something significant rather than waiting until he gets blown out June 7th. A smart politician would get out now and make the best deal he can get. If he waits, he might not even get a seat in the back of the room.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)This is about more than the primary and I think you know that. Bernie's clout will continue and grow even if he isn't the nominee.
We're not going away so get used to it. The Democratic Party will be forced to shift left if they want to win.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He might be able to get something really significant if he does it now. The Clinton team does not want to fight him all the way to Philly so they would be more likely to give him something now he and his supporters really want. But if he waits and is blown out June 7th I doubt he will get much.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)That's how it works
Baobab
(4,667 posts)which is pursued totally so big corporations can enslave us using these deals which outlaw everything that coud make health care affordable for corporations. Everywhere, that is their goal.
Now they are working on another one, worse than the first, in Geneva.
PatrickforO
(14,516 posts)on here did. For those reading this post, in case you don't know, GATS stands for General Agreement on Trade in Services, and was as you point out a WTO initiative.
Well, we signed this piece of and its provision against legislation that sets up a 'service monopoly' is one of the main, if not the main reason that Congress didn't ram Single Payer through in 2009 when THEY HAD THE VOTES AND THE PUBLIC SUPPORT to make it happen.
But, no. No matter how good something would actually be for you and I, the people, Congress obeyed this piece of crap treaty and instead we got a Heritage Foundation plan from the 90s that is little more than a giant welfare program for insurance companies. It never made sense to me Baobab, until I read that text in the GATS agreement.
You all know what????
We need to RENEGOTIATE every stinking one of these so-called 'free' trade treaties. Because profit over people has reached its last gasp and will not be allowed to continue by the people for very much longer.
So, oligarchs, don't want pitchforks, torches and guillotines???
THEN THROW THE MIDDLE CLASS THIS BONE!
brush
(53,471 posts)PatrickforO
(14,516 posts)a woman came up to him and said, "Well, you need to do this, that and the other thing!"
FDR looked at her and said, "I agree. Force me to do it!"
What he meant by that, of course, is that pressure from voters, properly applied, can neutralize a lot of lobbies and corporate money. If a Senator gets 5,000 calls from constituents saying, "Hey, we want single payer. Pass it ASAP," then that is how s/he'll vote. That is the way our system was intended to work.
So, when you tell me, 'oh, they never had the votes,' I dispute you because I was PART of the Obama machine, which was the most potent, powerful popular grass-roots movement I've ever seen in my lifetime. And, speaking for myself at the least, and perhaps for the numerous good people I met on that journey, I'll tell you this:
If Obama would have said, "Hey, we want single payer, CALL your US Representative and Senators!" there would have been a crushing response. And, if they didn't do it, we'd have showed at the polls in 2010 and cast them out of office on their greedy and shortsighted butts.
Because here's the thing: we lost so bad in 2010 because many of us, millions in fact, thought we had elected the next FDR and found out that instead we'd elected someone who was to the right of Eisenhower Republicans. Don't get me wrong - Obama's a really good, really moral guy, and he's been a far better president than many give him credit for.
But he has in fact helped Wall Street and the MIC, big pharma and the insurance industry just a BIT more than he's helped us. If he'd have been a real populist, like Bernie, this country would now be a light on the hill instead of an erstwhile republic that has embraced empire and is about to become a fascist state, thus ensuring its demise in our fucking lifetimes. Sorry, but it is that serious.
brush
(53,471 posts)Heres the real deal there actually wasnt a two year supermajority.
President Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009 with just 58 Senators to support his agenda.
He should have had 59, but Republicans contested Al Frankens election in Minnesota and he didnt get seated for seven months.
The Presidents cause was helped in April when Pennsylvanias Republican Senator Arlen Specter switched parties.
That gave the President 59 votes still a vote shy of the super majority.
But one month later, Democratic Senator Byrd of West Virginia was hospitalized and was basically out of commission.
So while the Presidents number on paper was 59 Senators he was really working with just 58 Senators.
Then in July, Minnesota Senator Al Franken was finally sworn in, giving President Obama the magic 60 but only in theory, because Senator Byrd was still out.
In August, Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts died and the number went back down to 59 again until Paul Kirk temporarily filled Kennedys seat in September.
Any pretense of a supermajority ended on February 4, 2010 when Republican Scott Brown was sworn into the seat Senator Kennedy once held.
Summer and holiday recesses also factored in so there were the votes there that could have done what you suggest.
PatrickforO
(14,516 posts)there are about 645 people who call the shots in DC.
IF THEY WANTED TO DO THE RIGHT THING WE WOULD HAVE HAD IT YESTERDAY.
I've had it up to my nose-hairs with bullshit. I'm 57 years old, and am sickened every time I think of my shitty, rationed healthcare package from an HMO that cares more about cutting costs than serving me. I'm sick of my employer and I between us paying a whopping 18.8% of my gross pay in healthcare premiums. Every year the copay goes up and the service goes down. At this point, if I have to be hospitalized, I have to pay a financially crippling copay, and if both my wife and I have to go in one year, I'll probably have to go bankrupt.
That, brush, is bullshit, and it is immoral - an offense against everything that is right. I WANT SINGLE PAYER NOW. It is the right thing to do. It is the moral thing to do. And yeah, I'm willing to pay higher taxes for it. I also feel that the big corporations who haven't been paying any US income tax need to be paying their fair share.
These fucks who we vote into office go off to DC and earn big bucks, have lifetime healthcare and big lifetime pensions and they DARE to keep screwing the American people because they are nothing but fearful worms, afraid of losing the next election. I have no sympathy, and so have become far more active politically in local politics.
I WANT SINGLE PAYER NOW and it is the price these sick jerks will pay from now on for any support at all from me, and I will very actively work against any politician who is against single payer.
lancer78
(1,495 posts)the Likud Party's Senator (Joe Lieberman). Thousands of Americans will die because of that entitled brat of a man.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)he suddenly died. Yes, died.
Here is a video of him a few weeks earlier.
here is his mailing list from August, in date order.
http://www.pnhpillinois.org/pipermail/activists_healthcareil.org/2009-August/date.html#start
here is his IJHS paper on WTO and health care reform.
Which turns out to be by far the best paper on this subject, and much more right than even its author suspected at the time.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.405.5725&rep=rep1&type=pdf
brush
(53,471 posts)I'm for single-payer but the votes just never materialized.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)brush
(53,471 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)or not?
it appears that I am not the only person to have wondered this here..
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6817105
here is a video taken shortly before:
Baobab
(4,667 posts)is this the paper you mean?
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.405.5725
Also, have you seen this?
HCAI-IllinoisSinglePayer- Breaking News: Single-Payer Will be Voted on by Full U.S. House of Representatives
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Because Bernie has done nothing to help down ticket candidates, he has hit his peak. And no, the Democratic Party isn't changing due to Bernie-ites. Ya see, us Democrat that have been around forever and have actually participated in our elections understand what it it takes to make a person worthy of or votes. People over 50 vote far more reliably than those under 25.
frylock
(34,825 posts)FIFY
Clinton fundraising leaves little for state parties
In the days before Hillary Clinton launched an unprecedented big-money fundraising vehicle with state parties last summer, she vowed to rebuild our party from the ground up, proclaiming when our state parties are strong, we win. Thats what will happen."
But less than 1 percent of the $61 million raised by that effort has stayed in the state parties coffers, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings.
The venture, the Hillary Victory Fund, is a so-called joint fundraising committee comprised of Clintons presidential campaign, the Democratic National Committee and 32 state party committees. The set-up allows Clinton to solicit checks of $350,000 or more from her super-rich supporters at extravagant fundraisers including a dinner at George Clooneys house and at a concert at Radio City Music Hall featuring Katy Perry and Elton John.
The victory fund has transferred $3.8 million to the state parties, but almost all of that cash ($3.3 million, or 88 percent) was quickly transferred to the DNC, usually within a day or two, by the Clinton staffer who controls the committee, POLITICOs analysis of the FEC records found.
<more>
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/clinton-fundraising-leaves-little-for-state-parties-222670#ixzz47VU4iX3M
Avalux
(35,015 posts)BTW - I'm one of those faithful Dems who has been around forever. I'm going to keep fighting to change the party, knowing I'm up against people like you who think they know more than the rest of us.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)its about corruption and preserving democracy
brush
(53,471 posts)Is there an actual organization being discussed and not just repeated comments about a movement?
We all saw what happened to Occupy.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)position is not one of them.
This is and always has been about him helping this country and sticking it to the assholes while he is at it, which I fully support.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think he can get something significant if goes for it now. The Clinton team would likely be more receptive than if he waits until the end when he will likely have much less leverage.
aikoaiko
(34,127 posts)Bernie needs to stay in until the convention and make the super delegates state their choices.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie is going to get plastered on June 7. He has some leverage now.. after June 7.. not much.
aikoaiko
(34,127 posts)You don't get it -- if HRC disrespects Bernie at the convention it will motivate Bernie supporters to work against Hillary. She already has that problem to a certain degree, but it could get much worse for her. Or it coudl get better.
I know the Clinton's are a vindictive people, but they are stupid.
TheKentuckian
(24,943 posts)Elevating on the platform is me to okay but can see worthless from it's house it isn't enforceable. Talk to me about elevating or placing on the agenda and appointments.
Speaking spot? Sure, the keynote speech is worthy of consideration the symbolism about the direction of the party moving forward could be beneficial.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)A vote for Clinton appears to be dangerously close to a vote for Trump...to use the meme I dislike, but get tired of reading. Of course, as usual, they do not mention the one candidate who has consistently (like his politics) beaten Trump.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)garbage.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)This didn't just happen or get made up out of "fairy dust"...but you knew that. It's been closing in for several weeks. It's just inconvenient information. The others will soon come along soon. Not that it matters.
Bernie beats ALL of the Republicans. Hillary beats MOST of the Republicans...so I'll hold off on reflecting until the Right Pollster comes along. BTW, this has been the case for a number of weeks now...right here on DU.
But when the old "kill the messenger" urge presents itself, it reminds me of my Dad's old saying....You can't get someone's goat it they don't have a goat to get.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Oh, and we who don't live in the Clinton Bubble watch all the published polls. And, the ones showing Bernie beating all of the Republicans, yes, even Trump, by comfortable margins have not varied much at all.
brush
(53,471 posts)We seen that over several election cycles and they are usually highly inaccurate with their predictions like Romney was going to win.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I am suggesting he negotiate for a high profile speaking spot at the convention or making his issues higher priority or whatever... not money or any personal gain for Bernie.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Bernie is not the movement. The Bernie effect arose because of the movement. The movement will continue with or without Bernie.
Bernie will be just fine fighting the battles he always has from wherever he is. The White House was never his dream or goal, change is.
And change will happen, one way or another, like it or not.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)We will see how this plays out but I suspect he and his team will soon come to their senses.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Response to NorthCarolina (Reply #9)
Post removed
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Thanks for the chuckle.
frylock
(34,825 posts)CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)If Bernie continues to hammer the Democratic party, and talking about contesting the convention, he's going to find himself on a one-way ride right off his committee roles, and be all alone and powerless in the Senate. The way to turn 'the revolution' into something that accomplishes anything at all is to make nice with the people who can help you. Getting out now would do that.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)tonyt53
(5,737 posts)liberal from boston
(856 posts)BTW, Federal Judge ordered that over 46,000 NYC Primary provisional ballots be counted.
TheKentuckian
(24,943 posts)RNC after running third party (The Loserman party) against a Democrat riding Relublican votes the whole way and that no good fucker wasn't relieved of a damn thing.
So, if you folks want to get petty, vengeful, and shitty (not to mention hypocritical as the conservative was rallied around) then we all go there.
It would be stupid anyway, why ratchet up the cost of doing business. Odds are that vote will be needed along the way at least a few times.
lancer78
(1,495 posts)that can "help" him out are a bunch of prostitutes selling out their constituents to the highest bidder.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)A good number of us want to take our party back. Enough of the Corporatocracy-led Democrats. That's not best for the party or the nation. And the awakening of the formerly silent, especially in demographics below age 45...the real next generation...is a case in point.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Foundation. And much more. You have made a good point. She hasn't driven her own car, they say, since those two decades, and those 6 figure banker speeches.
Yes, just a peasant of the people.
ETA: Bill's daliances,i.e. impeachment
frylock
(34,825 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)That would be significant.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Your evident obtuseness about the Political Revolution, about being in it together,
about why Bernie's staying in the race, etc. ... is just sad.
Logical
(22,457 posts)SujiwanKenobee
(290 posts)Yeah, right. End your "show" while your ratings are high, Bernie! After all, it's just about YOU! It's not a MOVEMENT of millions of people or anything IMPORTANT like that! Sheesh.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Oh, hell no!
Vinca
(50,170 posts)If he stays in and happens to be the nominee somehow, that's a win. If he stays in and isn't the nominee, but continues to spread his message, that's also a win.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The California poll just proves my point. He likely to get plastered there and once that happens he wont have any leverage at all.
Vinca
(50,170 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Skink
(10,122 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)oasis
(49,151 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)...and doesn't take a hint from 2008.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Maybe its to late already?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie gets some concessions and Hillary can focus on Trump.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)When YOU get out of DC, then you can start telling others where they can get off. Until then, study up a little bit on what is actually GOING ON outside your confined cone that defines political clout.
AhKayThxBye!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)DC is just one of many addresses. I have lived in Illinois, Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Florida, Maryland and SE Asia.
I know very well what is going on outside of this place. I also know very well what the reality of this years election. We have to beat the GOP, that is our first priority, and Hillary is our best candidate to do that.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)You no doubt toss out the widest variety of polling on how Bernie Sanders beats EVERY Republican in this race over and above HRC. You toss out that when open primaries, reflective of the ACTUAL November vote have him winning.
Well, I'll say this for you... You have your set of glasses on!
3hummingbirds
(58 posts)According to most of the polls, Bernie beats all Republicans by a higher margin than Hillary. She has a huge disapproval rating.
Biaviians
(167 posts)oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)The nine million votes to date and the however many delegates do not matter. ha ha ha I suspect she will be the nominee and I suspect she will win. My primary is not until June and I would like to vote before the grand climax of clinton giving her victory speech before the convention begins. Have patience. You will get what you want. The primary process has tried the patience of many this year. There is nothing good about stopping now. The good is in every candidate getting their message out as often as is possible. The good is having a platform that accurately reflects Democrats. The good is having an honorable primary process.
Response to DCBob (Original post)
Post removed
Armstead
(47,803 posts)All that progressive populism is so messy.
?w=600
Zen Democrat
(5,901 posts)Response to DCBob (Original post)
TimPlo This message was self-deleted by its author.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)BTW... have you seen the latest CA poll? Hillary is ahead by 19 points. It's over so Bernie might as well negotiate something with Hillary while he still has maximum leverage. Right?
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)at the time it was important for her supporters to have a chance to vote.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Apples and oranges.
Piedras
(247 posts)I attended a Congressional District 24 caucus in San Luis Obispo, California yesterday to elect Bernie delegates. There was a long line to get in. Well over 300 Bernie supporters came to vote for delegates. There was another District 24 meeting in Santa Barbara on Sunday too. The high turn-out and warm energetic enthusiasm for Bernie was very affirming. We elected 6 strong Bernie delegates from our district to attend the Democratic National Convention.
The California election is just over a month away on June 7th. Being cautious I checked my registration again to be sure I get to vote. Its good! Absentee ballots will be mailed out on Monday May 9th. So I'll be able to vote very soon.
The voter and election suppression effort from Hillary's supporters appalls me as a life time registered Democratic voter from California and strong Bernie Sanders supporter.
So hell no. I'm voting for Bernie on my California absentee ballot asap!